Member Info for DonaldTrumpsWig

are there any prizes?

1st prize is a night at the pub with WYN, 2nd prize is 2 nights at the pub with WYN, 3rd prize is 3 nights........

In the 70's there was a popular children's game show called 'Runaround' hosted by Mike Reid, the premise was that 50 kids were asked a simple question with 3 answer options. E. G what is the fastest animal? The kids were asked to go and stand on a circle in front of a banner containing what they believed to be the correct answer.
The fun part was that the kids were then given 5 seconds to change their mind and jump from one circle to another, to 'runaround'
The hilarious bit was that it only took a couple of kids to doubt their answer and jump, for another 10 to follow even if they knew they were stood in front of the correct answer, the psychology and pressure of herd mentality was very funny to watch.
My point, this is exactly the psychology that Wyn, Touk, Derek etc are attempting to employ, sow a seed of doubt into the weak minded to make them doubt their conviction and sell
To remind everyone, there is absolutely no connection between the current SP and the science. The current SP is nothing more than a judgment made by a likely corrupt, poorly researched 'market' that has only a scant understanding of the AVCT opportunity
WYN, TOUK et al, It's pathetic, it's transparent, please go away

Don't bite Strangy, I know it's hard and I frequently don't heed my own advice. Best way to get rid of the sealion is to ask him about his opinions on the science, the therapeutic industry. it goes all quiet thereafter.

Ahhhh hi Wyn, we were wondering who Tel was, thanks for clearing that up

Agreed Energy, very interesting board today

Sorry to be a pedant but Clovis have filed for chapter 11 which is not bankruptcy but protection against it

In short, they are protected from their creditors whilst being able to carry on trading in an attempt to put a plan in place that will allow them to resume trading.
Clearly, Clovis are flogging the family silver to survive and whilst it is indeed a distressed sale it's not exactly a fire sale administered by a third party such as would take place had they slipped into administration.
Doesn't diminish from the very well made arguments today that FAP is on the shopping list and the Clovis asset has huge value despite having to be sold for a bargain basement price.

Wyn - 'Ok, fine, so what do think the SP will be and by when?'

Open wide Wyn, here comes a juicy Mackerel - 12 + 13 minus 25 = the number of ****s I give about the SP currently

My only interest, the only thing I care about, is the science, the company fundamentals and does it work. The science is brilliant/revolutionary/life changing. All clues point to it working, secured funding assures the mid-term future of the Co and therefore I sit here patiently waiting for an update.
40p or £2.70 is irrelevant to me right now I don't care about the SP at £1.06. This is a binary play, it's either going to be worth a fortune or nothing. I know which one most of the researched LTH's here think and when that play unfolds that is the time I will pay attention to the SP.
I don't buy this 'the market knows best' cr@p - AIM is a useless exchange for AVCT, it doesn't have the liquidity nor does 'the market' have the intellect to understand the science and subtleties of AVCT and how it differs from the other small, typically unsuccessful, small pharma on AIM that 'the market' lumps it in with.
We know that even the scientific press struggle to understand what PreCision is, so the coke snorting, wide boys on Canary Wharf have no chance.

RAH, I respect your valuation theories and as Rip says, anyone who disagrees, or has a better theory, the stage is yours....

My take on valuation, is simply that it is so incredibly difficult to use any form of past precedent to value something so revolutionary, so unique, so sought after for so many years.
If it works, even remotely close to the PK data, then it is a unicorn, a holy grail (insert your preferred metaphor) and existing protocols for company valuations could be re-written

For goodness sake WYN you massive, fish eating, ball juggling, aquatic mammal, this trial is working with terminally ill cancer patients. Delays are inevitable and probably to be expected AND importantly the Co are under no obligation to provide under employed, impatient, terminally dim PI's updated with a running commentary

Could there be bigger discussions currently taking place?

That could explain the lack of comms. And if you were a big pharma contemplating buying the Co the last thing you would want is the CEO arranging a 'science day' and telling all your competitors what a clever boy he is and how it all works.

Patience is all that's required here

It's an interesting debate for a slow news day.
The way I see it is much like Wyn's charts, trying to predict the future based upon the past is fraught with difficulty. Comparing it with a readily available commodity (gold) is also difficult

If it works, what we have here is a unique, patented, solution to a decades old problem.
Typical valuation methods will almost certainly not apply and like a rare Van Gogh, guide prices may be set but the value will be dictated by how much the buyers want to own the asset

I don’t have a problem discussing Covid testing in the context of the AVCT diagnostic division but I agree that it is an insignificance relative to the therapeutic division.
Wether covid is around for 2 or 200 years, with the exception of China, politically at least, covid is over. We will never again see the level of government intervention seen over the last 2 years.
I suspect history will judge that the global response to covid was a huge overreaction.
This is not to diminish the experience of anyone who has suffered from it but I feel that covid will be categorised as a recurring, treatable ailment to sit alongside flu etc
For AVCT, Launch have taught us that there is a diagnostic business outside of covid and it is an entirely sensible strategy to develop ‘exquisitely’ sensitive affimer based diagnostics to include a test for covid but only as part of a broad reaching portfolio.

Covid LF testing as a standalone opportunity is now a much reduced niche opportunity in an already saturated market and should be approached as such.

Oh no, who summoned Beetlejuice? Time to switch off for the day

Massive buys going in causing the price to fall

Well found Metis

Today's TMS article, as well written as it is, still fails to grasp the critical detail that AVA is a delivery mechanism not a novel drug, hence it does not require phase 3.
The whole concept of PRE/cision pro drugs reminds me of the fable of the Emperors new clothes, in that the vast majority of people cannot see the opportunity and only a handful of people are able to actually grasp the science.
If I was a school teacher marking recent press articles out of 10, with the exception of Paul Hill, I think most of them would struggle to get 5 or 6 .
Very soon there is going to be a huge realisation of what is going on here

All the sellers are dumping their shares which is pushing the price up !!! either that or those crafty so and so's at Bego are back on the bid again

It’s difficult not to view the Newcastle recruitment as incredibly positive, unless you need to sell shares to buy Christmas presents.
I can’t remember his name but don’t we have a non-exec on the record stating that his primary responsibility with young pharma is to tell them when to stop wasting money on futile trials.
Clearly he’s not saying anything of the sort to Avacta

Excellent post Jive

Completely agree that it is AIM itself and its lack of liquidity and its prevalence of rainbow chasing gamblers that is one of the biggest drags on the SP.
Frankly, small biotech's listed on AIM are not taken seriously, much like the bloke trying to sell Rolex watches on Bury market, nobody believes they are real and even when they discover they are, they can't afford them

It's also interesting, that the article written by Charles Archer, who is clearly a researched, professional investor comes across as simplistic and slightly naïve (e.g comparison to SNG). Point being that very few fully understand the science and hence the opportunity.

Combine the two and it explains why the SP is languishing at £1.10. Very soon the mists will clear and the penny will drop.

The principle of AVA is simpler and almost certainly cheaper than its competitors.
Market dominance right there.

'Do Avacta need to RNS the completion of C4? I think not'

Absolutely correct, I've said before, the company are under absolutely no obligation to provide a running commentary on trial status and progress

They are however, absolutely obliged to update the market of any developments that would have a material impact on the share price e.g. trial being paused, suspended, re-evaluated, unsuccessful

Absolutely nothing to read into the time it is taking for readout, the most important thing is that we have not been told anything that detracts from the reassurances of success that we have received from senior management thus far.

'Time is money. Things change over time. Nothing stays the same'

Brilliant, intuitive foresight again from the Sage of S****horpe