Member Info for DonaldTrumpsWig

RAH pointed out that STFL believe the chance of success is currently 20%.- TD believe sales of Dox to be $1.5Bn per year. In 2026
What does Dr William Tap think of the opportunity for AVA6000 in the treatment of STS:

'Chemotherapy is still the treatment of choice for the majority of sarcoma patients' - Dr William Tap

'What do we use? Doxorubicin was developed early on by Bob Benjamin.... this is 1973 when he developed the drug ..and it still our gold standard' - Dr William Tap

'This study defined how doxorubicin does in the modern era...median progression free survival with doxorubicin in front line settings is 6 months, overall survival is just under 2 years at 19 months...overall response rate is about 18%' - Dr William Tap
'Median number of cycles was about 4.2 months and so that's hitting those 6 cycles that we talk about...median progression survival is only a few months after that, why? because when you stop drug, patients progress, so that's one of the major limitations of doxorubicin is that we can only give it for 6 cycles' - Dr William Tap

'If we can have something that we can use for longer in patients we may be able to even use it in a wider group of patients than we are normally restricted to clinically' - Dr William Tap

'What we are looking for are drugs that work better, so if I have a doxorubicin that works better than standard doxorubicin, overnight that becomes the standard of care' - Dr William Tap

Four questions: 1. is the trial progressing well?, 2.Is there a requirement for a better form of dox? 2. Will this expand the the current market? 4. Will this be valuable?

'Still a lot of questions that need answering for me.'

Another concerned poster that clearly hasn't listened to the presentation. If he/she had they would've been able to listen to a world authority on STS, Dr Tap and avoided making a tit of themselves.

As an antidote to the pointless FUD including Myles trading strategy, the competence of AS to run AVCT, the imminent death spiral etc etc. Thought it might be a good idea to remind ourselves of the fantastic progress in the actual words of the only people we should be listening to:

'We have seen a very modest and predictable safety profile to date, mainly low grade adverse events that have not changed in severity or frequency as we have dose escalated' - Andrew Saunders

'The PK data has very much reflected that showing significant reduction in the concentration and exposure of Doxorubicin peripherally' - Andrew Saunders

'Tumour biopsies showing a very significant concentration of Doxorubicin in the tumour relative to the periphery' - Andrew Saunders

'Clearly we are seeing proof of concept here, we are seeing the drug being concentrated in the tumour' - Andrew Saunders

'Development strategy... we plan to move into metastatic soft tissue sarcoma ...we may go well beyond that to other tumour types, this is an obvious and logical first step, being an unmet need, a place where doxorubicin is used as the standard of care and where most tumours are know to be FAP positive' - Andrew Saunders

'We plan to open two and beyond that hopefully other sites in the US' - Andrew Saunders

'The promise of 6000 is that we could deliver more doxorubicin to the tumour with much better tolerability and with that the promise of giving 6000 for many more cycles than 6' - Andrew Saunders

'So there remains a huge opportunity to bring a new agent to replace standard doxorubicin' - Andrew Saunders

'The proof of principle, that is in the PK and the safety. The efficacy will come in phase 1b' - Professor Chris Twelves

'We are not close to MTD, this is as different from giving naked doxorubicin as chalk and cheese, so I think there is potential for substantial dose escalation' - Professor Chris Twelves

I could go on, I think it is clear that the only people we should be listening to are quietly confident. Ignore the FUD, ignore the daily SP and wait for updates.

WYN
Do you think the the AVCT BOD (and most LTH's) give a **** whether the SP is £1.85, or £2.85 or £1.45 ? The answer is no. Daily movements of the SP are irrelevant when compared to the content of last weeks SD.

I'm sorry but anyone who gives precedence to what the ' AIM market' tells us over what was presented by eminent scientists last week is frankly a complete moron.

Today's SP is nothing more than a short term snapshot on AVCT provided entirely by gamblers and rainbow chasers. True intrinsic value of the work being undertaken by AVCT will be realised in the fullness of time for those that have the mental capacity to appreciate the bigger picture.

Worthless Sealion clothed in a bake-bean stained vest sits in his basement ranting that a hugely respected scientist is inadequate simply because AIM is currently incapable of affixing true value to the incredible life-affirming work being undertaken at Avacta.
What an absolute moron, deserving nothing less than total discredit and contempt.

Couple of important points re ongoing funding. We must assume that Susquehanna were privy to much of the SD data prior to their decision to invest.
If therefore the trial continues to progresses as we expect, then Susquehanna will almost certainly be prepared to offer AVCT an ongoing line of credit, either as debt or convertible bonds.
The due diligence has been done and approved.
Why wouldn't they do this? they are in the business to make money and unlike PI's & AIM they can accept longer horizons because they have done the research and understand the bigger picture and know that any delays/extensions to P1 is actually an incredibly positive development.

WYN

I agree that it simply isn't possible to know how long the trials and subsequent commercialisation will take, however as a guide:

We received an RNS on the 11th Aug 2021 notifying us that the first patient had been dosed with AVA6000 at the Royal Marsden.
Give or take, that's 18 months until last week's SD. Even the most pessimistic would agree that the increase in knowledge and progress made in such a short space of time is remarkable.
Will this pace of discovery slow or accelerate from here ? Will the extra sites, US partners etc provide additional momentum? I would suggest that on the back of the incredibly encouraging data the answer has to be yes.

With regards to cash burn, in my earlier note I made no comment on other potential revenue streams which could be frequent and significant. Can we expect further milestone payments from Affy & Point? Further acquisitions of cash generative businesses ? Not mentioning of course the possibility of licencing deals or further II investment.

Lot's of unanswered questions, absolutely, reasons to be overly concerned, very few .

No problem Timster, can't believe I actually responded to a Wyndrum thread, off to thrash myself with birch twigs ...

Some absolute garbage on here this morning, sadly, distracting from the fantastic content of last week's SD.

It's difficult to ignore, I agree but unless you are planning to sell your shares imminently it is almost irrelevant if the SP sits at £1.45 or £2.45. There are only three important questions that SH's should be asking themselves this morning:

1. Does it work? we now know the unequivocal answer to this question. Unfortunately most of the posters this morning are too thick and lazy to have read/listened to anything from the SD.
2. Does the science have commercial value? - Myles M and RAH have gone to great length to provide rationale to this question, I have yet to read a single sentence from any aquatic mammal that can provide a sensible contradiction to their assessments.
3. Do Avacta have the cash to progress to commercialisation? - Regardless of your perspective, this is the one question that cannot be answered.
What we do know however: (all in RNS's)
A) - AVCT received 'a minimum' of £45 million in November from the convertible bond offering of which they needed £24 million to buy Launch
B) They also received an extra £7 million in October from the 95p raise
C) They were sat on £17 million cash at end June 2022
D) They lost £9 million first 6 months of 2022

If we assume that the losses are all cash (which may not be the case) and you don't count any 'new' revenues from Launch this would infer that they are burning £1.5 million per month against a cash pile of circa £40 million, or just over 2 years of cash runway.
Can they progress the pipeline to commercialisation within this time frame? That is the only question that matters and after reading and listening to the contents of the SD (I have), there is no doubt in my mind that this will happen well in advance of any shortage of working cap
Ignore the noise, ignore the SP, read the RNS,s and SD material

Just watched/listed to the first 40 mins of yesterday's presentation (still 2 hours 30mins to go). It's a must listen. Fiona M does a fantastic job of explaining her slides.
My confidence/excitement growing with every passing minute

Have a good weekend all

My own take on the SD would perhaps go some way to explain the subdued response Rippers alludes to in his earlier post.
I am slightly overwhelmed by the amount of data received and struggling to find clarity in what this could mean and how it could play out? I suspect many of us LTH's feel the same way as we are simply not qualified to understand such comprehensive data, no shame in that.
On one hand, the data appears incredible but it is far more complex and nuanced than 'it works'. In many respects the data throws up more questions than answers. Do Avacta possess the resources to complete the trials? Do they have sufficient funds to finance it? Do they have the manpower and skills to 'fight' on so many fronts? How long will it all take?

On the other hand, such ground-breaking solutions to decades old problems must pique the interest of big pharma and big investors, as someone pointed out earlier, they are not going to let little old Avacta come along and steal their lunch. The IP that Avacta possess is patently highly valuable and all anecdotal evidence suggests that big pharma are not only acquisitive but they have vast war chests to support this.

I suspect that the SD SP bounce we were all hoping for won't happen short-term simply because if we are all wrestling with the implications the 'AIM market' will have no chance.
Critically, we can all agree that what AVCT have proven is truly revolutionary and the data presented yesterday removed any doubt suggesting that the latent value is huge.

The genie is now out of the bottle and all that is required is (continued) patience, I'm sure the next few months are going to be incredibly interesting

Couldn't agree more Fisherman, and assuming the 64 indicates your year of birth we are of a very similar age which does allow you to be slightly more philosophical about life. Also, like you, I will be in Tenerife very soon, however it will be Golf and Cycling for me...enjoy

It’s my birthday today, last nights video was a great early present. Lots of updates from the SD would be brilliant with a RNS the icing on the cake

That Global Data note lost me in the first sentence, when they referred to AVA as a 'drug'.

And therein lies the problem with AVCT. Despite many of us LTH's feeling that we've been waiting a lifetime, we have to accept that, to the wider investment (and scientific) community, the company and its science are still relatively unknown.
Someone recently posted a link to a great line graph where Co valuation was measured against time and AVCT still sit in the 'Stealth Phase' hopefully soon to cross the 'Take Off' line and move into the 'Awareness Phase'

As difficult as it is, we must remind ourselves that the daily SP is not linked to the fundamentals or potential of AVCT, it is merely a reflection of what the market understands, which as we are constantly reminded, is very limited.

Hopefully Thursday will go some way to address this void, but we must never lose sight of the transformational statements included within the 17th Jan RNS. That is what this investment is all about and why it cannot be compared with any other company on AIM.

Like the fable of the Emperors new clothes, it is only a matter of time before everyone can see what only a privileged few of us can see today.

So many questions, yet so few answers, don't feed the Sealion

'Smoke and mirrors is my experience of his utterances - Basically we really have no idea whats going on'.

Did you read the17th Jan RNS,? listen to the subsequent interview? are you aware of the SD 23rd Feb? What more do you need ? Perhaps what fillings will be included in the SD sandwiches?
The AVCT board have absolutely no obligation to keep attention seeking aquatic mammals updated with daily activities and 'whats going on' until such time they have news that could have a material impact on the SP

So once again... deploying my best Del Boy impersonation ...'shat up you tart'

And your point is Touk?

The 95p issue was massively oversubscribed (I was one of those applying, unsuccessfully, for extra shares).

You can play semantics with RAH all you like but what exactly is your point?

Since 14.00 over 40/ bought and about 6/ being sold !

It's those swine's at Cyberdyne Systems - send for John Connor

'so basically they have no meaningful income'

If you don't count the income generated by Launch. You aren't very good at this de-ramp lark Viking. perhaps best to quit whilst you are behind !!

‘Damp Squid’ ha ha ..is Alan going to leave his octopus out in the rain ?? You Scandinavian moron.