Member Info for DonaldTrumpsWig

WYN said - 'If it was doing what you say, the SP would not have fallen to the price it has'

A truly a moronic statement, implying that the market knows more about the status of the trial than the actual data provided by AS, Prof Twelves, Fiona M, Bill Tap etc etc

Good post as always Jive

From memory, the term used at SD for the initial cohorts was 'Doxorubicin naive'.

My understanding of this term was that as P1a was exclusively about safety and tolerability it was important that all patients had no previous exposure to dox, ergo, any DLT's were exclusively as a consequence of exposure to AVA6k.

As you suggest, it will be remarkable if any of the P1a patients have seen improved prognosis as a result of treatment with AVA6k when current protocols dictate that dox is not recommended for their particular cancer type.

Only an absolute moron would attempt to argue a read across from the very unique circumstances surrounding the LFT opportunity and what is currently taking place within the therapeutics division.

Referencing the data that Rippers shared a few weeks ago, it would seem that valuations of (typically loss making) pre-clinical and clinical Co's is dictated by the future earning potential of their platforms.

Anyone's guess for the future earning potential of the Pre/Cision platform if we see clear efficacy data from AVA6k/STS at P1b? It would certainly dwarf anything we've seen recently.

Not to mention DX, Affimers, TMAC, Affyxcell, Point Radioligands etc etc etc etc

Current SP is irrelevant and as has been said numerous times, the potential of AVCT is simply too much for the illiquid, tin pot AIM to get its head around.

Unless I am reading this incorrectly, MSK are not limiting their recruitment to patients with only STS (see list below).

If MSK feel that AVA6000 warrants trialling for the cancer types below, then we must assume they feel it could have therapeutic benefits.

Regardless, if MSK, via their P1b trials, are able to demonstrate that AVA6000 has a wider utility beyond STS then the Pre/Cision platform could really revolutionise cancer care.

A monster in the making, hold on tight to those shares

Eligible Conditions

Cancer of Unknown Primary Site

Prostate Cancer

Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Bladder Cancer

Esophageal Cancer

Biliary Tract Cancer

Pancreatic Cancer

Breast Cancer

Ovarian Cancer

Head and Neck Cancer

Colorectal Cancer

Soft Tissue Sarcoma

Sorry Tim , my bad

Spot on with your assumption of what is hidden behind your green box.

Including the following dim-witted comment ..... 'Although this has been frustratingly delayed up till now' ..demonstrating a total lack of understanding that the very 'delay' that is frustrating him, is actually an incredibly positive symptom of failure to find a MTD.

Timster - 'Glad I followed terrytwats advice.....' - Indeed, very quiet this morning from the resident doom mongers.

The death spiral didn't work and it looks like the death cross is a damp squib, what next? The death triangle?

Come on Terry/Viking/Wyn I can't cope with this incessant optimism, with the Co hitting key milestones and adding value almost on a daily basis. What is really going on?

You haven't missed anything Rorkes, worth remind ourselves just how straightforward and binary this opportunity is:

We know that P1a is showing significant improvements in safety and tolerability (ref Science day)

We know dox is being found in the tumour at 'therapeutic' levels (ref Science day/biopsies)

We know dox kills cancer cells (50 years of research & evidence)

We know that C5 are receiving dox at levels that would probably kill them with systemic exposure, yet no MTD has been found

Therefore, the longer it takes to find a MTD and the subsequent DLT's the better the safety/tolerability profile - the more dox is being deposited in the TME, - the more therapeutic AVA6000 becomes, - the more value is added to the Pre/Cision platform.

I would be very interested to hear from our resident agitants how they would counter any of the statements I have listed above.

In my opinion, the company knows exactly what it is sitting on. Pay increases, aggressive M&A strategy, changes of wording on website, improved comms etc etc are all signs of growing confidence.

They cant control sentiment nor the SP but I believe that It is now simply a matter of completing all processes (P1b) and once the data set is complete the fireworks can begin.

Another left field RNS today and not the one I was expecting.

On one hand, very positive, demonstrating a clear and ambitious strategy for the DX div. On the other hand I remain convinced that TX is the main prize and hope that DX doesn't become a distraction in terms of management focus and of course, working cap/cash.

More interesting for me today is the sustained attack on the company by the clowns, their masters are spooked by something, what could it be? great news to see them so vexed.

RAH 08.31 - 'We could well find it in C5. I don’t think we will'

A fair assumption considering we must be very close to completion of C5 and identifying a MTD within C5 would have to be RNS'd

There is a unequivocal positive correlation between the length of time taken to identify a MTD and the safety/tolerability profile of AVA6000, and by association, the efficacy, dox will be dox etc etc etc

The absence of an RNS stating a MTD has been reached really is a case of no news being excellent news.

It's clear that the 'market' will never grasp the fact that the longer this trial progresses the more data is gathered and the fundamentals improve exponentially. The current 'delay' is clear evidence that AVA6000 is more effective than initially envisaged.

Anyone who fails to grasp this has no understanding of the opportunity here.

We have seen plenty of evidence to suggest that companies do get taken out at P1-2 stage but if I were AS I would be fending off any enquiries until the end of the year.

Successful completion of P1b could multiply the enterprise value several fold. I for one am prepared to endure the 'delays' and a £1.00 SP for a few more months. Delays = more data = increase in Co value

Keep your eyes on the big picture

Astrea, Daewoong, Integumen - are you feeling silly WYN?

Point

As an old duffer I was privileged to be able to see the Smiths live several times in the early/mid 80's

'Guitarist Johnny Marr confirmed "with deep sadness" that Rourke died after a long battle with pancreatic cancer'

Another stark reminder of the fantastic work that AVCT are doing attempting to beat this wicked disease.

'I give up.'

Is that a promise ?

Great idea WYN, couple of minor considerations however:

1. AVCT management team are fundamentally research scientists and have no discernible expertise or experience of manufacturing

2. Manufacturing requires, cash, logistics & procurement expertise, plus an understanding of recruiting/retaining and managing large teams of typically low paid staff.

3. Launch almost certainly have several well established manufacturing partners in low cost countries with plenty of capacity to ramp up production for any new affimer based diagnostic products.

4. Any margin gains from AVCT owning their own manufacturing vs sub contracting would be minor if at all

5. Last time I looked the AVCT management team were not certifiably insane.

The most stupid thing you've mooted WYN and the bar is incredibly low

Putting the trial design to one side for a moment, it's worth reminding ourselves that somewhere in the US it is very possible that for the first time, a STS patient (probably a kid) is seeing a marked improvement in their prognosis whilst being spared the horrendous side effects they've had to endure thus far.

WYN, I'm sure even someone as thick skinned as yourself has worked out that the majority of contributors on here fall into Rippers definition of 'Investing'

Your essays are almost exclusively positioned from a 'Gamblers' perspective and frankly, very few of us find them either interesting nor relevant.

Like all gamblers you are quick to tell us of your £70k 'winnings' on AVCT, however like all gamblers you keep your losses quiet.

My guess would be that your AVCT 'winnings' were lost elsewhere and your constant presence here confirms that you can't keep out of the bookies spending your days chasing your losses.

This thread crystallises the disconnect between the true value here and the SP

AIM is patently the wrong place for AVCT to be listed now. Institutions clearly don't take AIM seriously and AVCT are doubly hindered by the fact they are categorised as high risk biotech/pharma. As AS said in his Times letter, the investment community is neither willing nor able to do the research required to appreciate the science and the subsequent investment opportunity at AVCT.

What are we left with? A small cohort of retail investors, within whom an even smaller cohort actually understand the science (ref this thread). The bulk of AIM retail investors are rainbow chasing, penny stock gamblers and we only have to look at our resident Sealion to appreciate that as an 'experienced' AIM retail investor who despite posting on here every day for years is actually doesn't understand the science.

An analogy I've used before, we are trying to sell Rolex watches on Bury Market, the people who can afford a Rolex don't shop there and the people who do shop there have no appreciation of what a Rolex is and can't afford one anyway.

'This is always about money not really about the company.'

Utter garbage WYN. This might be correct for a handful of self-confessed, failed gamblers but for researched investors it is exactly the opposite.