Member Info for Doc83

I take it back Matt007, I have 20 posts so can’t be me!

I would like to know where I could read more on the patents, though. Just for my own knowledge.

I’m assuming that’s directed at me? What is wrong with asking for some information on the patents or where the information can be found? And is this BB only for those who post dozens of posts daily?

Actually, I’d be grateful if someone could clarify exactly what the Synairgen patent covers? I was trying to find it but was struggling.

Just double checked. 36 pages and printed in size 6 font!

The full Numis note is one of the most detailed research notes I’ve ever seen on a stock. I’m sure it ran to 50 pages when I read it!

There are only two analysts that cover SNG. Finncap and Numis. They are the low and high forecasts shown, with the average price also given.

Wadogara, that doesn’t roll off the tongue quite as well as 10p or £10! ;)

@wadogara I think it’s fair to say that if P3 fails then SNG will probably halve in price immediately. I’ve been saying something similar… 10p or £10. This is more just another way of saying it’s boom or bust. Yes, the data SNG has will be worth something. But not that much.

I think we’re all getting ahead of ourselves by working out potential valuations. Let’s get P3 sorted and not tempt fate!

Ah, what the hell, I’ll join in then!

My guess would be £5-10 and taken over. Sure, it could go to £50. But let’s be brutally honest, some of us have some decent money invested here. If this got to £10 or 10x your original investment, you’d have to have seriously big balls to keep it all invested and not at least take some money off the table.

Certainly the end game is fast approaching now we’re about to go into September. Exciting times but also slightly tortuous!

Big pharmas must be watching this extremely closely. I recall that Proactive interview with RM at the end of January, where he is asked if they have been having conversations with them, and he smiles and says something like “ohhh yes, lots of good conversations…”!

Greenfish89 if that is the case, it is likely the share price will slide back towards 150p.

I suppose all irrelevant, as ultimately we are after a much higher price come end game.

My best guess would be anywhere between £5 and £10 or £1-2bn. A wide range, but I would imagine they would sell out/be taken over before they were given the chance to go much higher.

Anyway, we’re all getting well ahead of ourselves. Let’s hope the next chapter of this epic story goes well and we’ll probably be wetting ourselves if the price goes back north of £2!

GETINTHERE just to clarify, I am not doubting what you say you read, but more that it must be nonsense.

I’ve just checked on my Bloomberg terminal and the FTSE All Share has a PE of 15x, the S&P 500 is 20x. The S&P is stacked full of tech, so no surprises that is higher.
I looked at AstraZeneca and that is trading at 22x. Pfizer is on 12x! Roche is 15x. Biogen is 11x.

If SNG is successful with its trials, I honestly don’t know where a company would begin when looking to value it. There are so many unknowns, it would be finger in the air stuff for a lot of it.
But what I will say is that £1bn to some of the big pharmas is loose change. If SNG does turn out to be a wonder drug then it would also be a great thing to own.

A P/E of 80x is insane and not sustainable if that’s true. The long term average PE of the MSCI all world index must be somewhere between 15-20x. For smaller companies that is usually notably less.

The Numis research note from the back end of last year is a good guide and they explain their price targets very well. They have a £9.90 price target with much higher numbers given for various scenarios. I think we’d all be very happy with £10!

I’m getting slightly confused at some of the conflicting posts, but AZN had a 77% success rate but has been canned?
What is the success rate typically required for something to move onto the next stage?

Re the share price, I’m a little surprised it has fell this morning. It certainly wasn’t negative news that they have managed to collect enough data and are now sifting through it. Markets can be funny old things to understand sometimes!

What a load of nonsense and unnecessary scare mongering. Yes, valuations are high but the stockmarket won’t crash with a miss on earnings estimates.
Crashes usually happen because something completely unexpected (to 99% of people) happens… think financial crisis and Covid. There will be another crash and it could be in the next 5 days or 5 years, but the likely cause of it we won’t be too aware of yet.

FWIW, my biggest concern are the bond markets. They have been manipulated by central banks for many years now. Many countries will now be looking to raise cash to cover the costs of Covid. There’s only so much cash out there and so I think they’ll have to incentives and lure investors in with higher rates of interest. Not to mention inflation or the fact having rates persistently low is not actually good over the long term.

It is positive that the share price has quickly recovered somewhat from that large sale order.

I don’t think the share price fall is to do with any news on Activ-2. That 1 million share sell order has dragged the price lower. It is likely a wealthy investor who wants the cash for another investment. He might be a LTH who is up 500% for all we know.

Worth noting a lot of the LFT and testing stocks are much lower today… stocks such as Avacta, Omega Diagnostics, Abingdon Health etc. They might want to flip their money into those stocks, or just be out of the Covid stocks altogether.

I’m fully aware phase 2 trials are typically small and a few hundred people, at best. Therefore, my point stands that we shouldn’t think this is a done deal just yet.

Neither points were criticism. God forbid anyone that did dare say a bad word about SNG on here!