Member Info for Doc83

I’ll second that, a great post gggg.

I’ve been saying for a long time the focus needs to move away from vaccines and more towards therapeutics. 2022 will be the year for this and it’s good to see a senator pushing for this.

Does anyone know of any other therapeutics that are due to report p3 data imminently, like SNG?

I have this vision of your sofa being made of £50 notes.

I have to convince myself daily not to top up anymore, at least until P3 results. Already done too much. But if P3 comes in good and the SP only goes up 50-100p, then I’ll be putting the wheels in motion to sell one of my kidneys.

Share prices in stocks like SNG are heavily worked out based on their probability of success. I’d argue that the RNS today has derisked us (albeit ever so very slightly). SNG and RM are so painfully conservative that I’d be surprised if they didn’t have at least a bit of an idea on the p3 data before posting today. And we’ve been getting little snippets all the way along. That’s why I’m surprised to SP isn’t a bit higher.

Let’s not forget, getting through to Activ-2 P3 barely moved the price. That was another surprise to me, because what a positive that was, derisking us again.

As said many times, ultimately I’m here till the end and it’s all on P3. Sometimes I need reminding why I’m invested so heavily. Other times it’s good for me to read Ndn71 posts to bring me back down to Earth a bit. I think Ndn71 is just trying to keep his own feet on the ground and not get too excited because let’s face it, if this fails now, we’ll all be devastated.

Today was a day I wanted to dream.

Bruce, I’m surprised the SP isn’t more excited, too!

I’m now convinced that even with a knockout P3 success RNS that we’ll still only rise to £2.32.

That’s made me feel so much better about my mistake ;)

Back to possible share prices…

Moderna and BioNTech added approx $80bn and $45bn respectively to their values on the back of their vaccines (and it’s a crowded space with every pharma developed or developing one). Equivalent to £150-300 per share for SNG. No, I do not think we are hitting £300!
However, we would be the FIRST and ONLY Covid treatment that has been FULLY trialled, no corners cut like everyone else.

Also bear in mind that multiple takeovers have happened very recently for potentially much smaller drugs… Arena and Dicerna spring to mind that went for between $3-6bn.

Put it another way, £10 per share is £2bn. Blimey, big pharma will be laughing all the way to the cash point if they can get a drug like ours (IF successful) that cheaply.

I’ve no idea why I didn’t write it correctly, as I genuinely know it was piqued. Maybe the excitement of today got to me? :/

Well done, Raj. You’re quite right.

Way north of 4m volume today, following yesterday’s 3m. By far the biggest day for a long time. If there isn’t a TR1 forthcoming, then maybe SNG is finally peaking the interest of a new bunch of PI’s.

Come on Doc, your me better than that.

The market is always forward looking. I’m not saying £85 is going to happen. But you asked and Numis explain very clearly and in immense detail how they arrive at their ultimate bull case price target. Time will tell if they are right.

IDK WTF U R ON ABT.

Docdaneeka, re the £75 potential, here is an excerpt from the extensive research note that Numis put out. It’s worth noting that since they wrote this, they have increased their royalty rate target from 15% to 30%…

“There are a wide range of estimates for the proportion of the population that fall into the clinically vulnerable category, and based on the increased time to recovery and lower rates of progression into ICU the cost/benefit of SNG001 could be higher than our base case assumption. Depending on the estimated vulnerable population and an estimated
5% penetration our annual sales forecast (excluding initial stockpiling) ranges from
£733m to £6.6bn in FY25. The higher level of sales is not uncommon for leading drugs across large addressable markets. From Synairgen’s perspective, these assumptions would drive a DCF-based price target of £10 per share to £85 per share, substantially in
excess of the current price, which feeds into our risk/reward investment thesis.
As highlighted there are a wide range of potential sales scenarios, and these will depend on whether government’s around the world build a reserve of potential treatments for every winter virus season, or leave it to individual doctors to prescribe as needed and for hospitals to procure in the normal way. We believe the former is more probable, but model the latter. The next consideration will be the potential demand for treatment, versus intended capacity as well as the potential royalty rates or revenue share on end-market sales. We look into both below. In summary, manufacturing capacity would need to increase to 250,000 doses per month (from c.100,000) in the
upside scenario, and a higher royalty rate would double our base case DCF.”

Tommy, strangers?! I feel like I know you guys better than I know my own wife right now, haha! Living and breathing SNG right now. Borderline bad for my health I reckon :)

You don’t need to be Columbo…, lol!

I’m not a smoker but if this comes in, I might just treat myself to a fat Cuban. Cigar that is!

Had to update my own reason to invest in SNG!

Reasons To Invest In Synairgen:

- Previous trial results, including advancement to phase 3 in ACTIV US trial, are supportive of a positive outcome.
- 80% of phase 3 trials succeed.
- Excellent management team who have worked on this for many years.
- Recent recruitment drive to senior positions.
- Science supports the case for IFNb.
- Ingredient is a naturally occurring protein.
- Broad-spectrum antiviral, already proven (in vitro) to work on multiple variants of Covid-19.
- Different to current crop of therapeutics (inhalation).
- Could provide basis for other treatments, Asthma/COPD etc.
- Brokers positive. Numis price target of £9.90, Dr Paul Cuddon experienced in covering such stocks. Finncap also positive.
- Omicron, an even more urgent need than ever before for a variety of therapeutics.
- Vaccine hesitancy, more people becoming disillusioned with vaccines. May need to rely more on therapeutics.
- Represents a good risk/reward bet.
- Polygon/Polar taking significant stakes in Synairgen.
- Finncap upgrade.
- Commercialisation agreement signed with Ashfield, owned by UDG Healthcare (former FTSE250 member before being bought out in 2021).

Day trading is incredibly hard to get right. I mostly gave it up years ago!

As you say, that particular RNS completely took me by surprise!

Axe, you took the words right out of my mouth and I couldn’t agree more.

To me, a TO is still very much on. Anyone looking to buy us means this makes us even more desirable. They haven’t got to mess around signing commercialisation agreements, it’s all ready to go, fully built.

Couldn’t disagree more, Wyndrum.

For an extended period of time now, Synairgen has had intraday moves as wide as 5-10%. The spread I’ll agree is like an accordion, sometimes blowing out to as much as 5-7% but on the whole it’s usually around 1p (0.5%) which it is right now. Plenty on this board have traded the stock successfully.

As for risk, it’s mostly measured on volatility which I disagree with. That’s why a low risk investor is typically stuffed full of government bonds because they were historically low vol. Times have changed, the bond market has been manipulated and if someone asked me what is going to cause the next crash, I’d wager it’ll be the bond market bubble bursting. Rates up means bond prices down. Low risk investors don’t appreciate how risky bonds are unless they are held to maturity. They also will likely panic sell everything, including their small equity holdings which will mean equity markets take a hit.

I rarely day trade/short term trade but I did make one yesterday with M&C Saatchi. I bought in on the back of what I felt was an almost certain bid from Vin Murria. Although even I was surprised to see confirmation of an approach this morning so soon.

This BB can be hard work sometimes!

Wyndrum, I think it represents a relatively risk free short term bet for a day trader. If a TR1 comes in, great for them. If it doesn’t, 190 looks a snip and is as low as it’s been in the last few weeks.
Me saying I’m likely wrong, well, I’m admitting I rarely get these call right and not to take anything I say seriously. It’s all own opinions.

Ndn71, I’m expecting a TR1 at some point today. I’m likely wrong! For a day trader, can’t be a bad bet. Worst case, they’re buying in at what looks to be a good price.

3.1 million shares yesterday to go along with the 2 million Tuesday. And already 1.2 million today, I would be amazed if a TR1 doesn’t land any second.