Member Info for Doc83

Driftwood - here you go:

https://www.polygoninv.com/

They are most definitely not a nominee execution only service like HL!

Driftwood - I don’t know if you are just completely stupid, or if that is the worst attempt at deramping this BB has ever seen (and it’s a low bar)?

To be fair, didn’t Beforegolf say Monday evening that Polygon had bought another 4%? If so, I’m willing to entertain the fact he could also be right this time.

Regardless, it seems plausible and the right thing for Polygon to be buying up to 25%. I’ve already commented how even below this level the BOD would have to run anything big past them… fundraises for example would need them onboard.

I was always nervous of them buying too many shares in case they became too influential. But after Monday, I’m not sure the current management team are up to the job. I’m still staggered with all the commercialisation agreements, websites, job adverts in the US and EU, top PR recruitment etc and it does indeed seem to have been done without the foggiest clue as to what results were looking like.

gggg21 - I agree, they have come this far, they might as well get to at least 25%. They might have already got there yesterday and today… we’ll know very soon.

The SNG board will surely not like this, but this is the price of failure, which whatever way we dress it up, it was. In reality, they will have to work together to get anything done.

gggg21, it was mentioned previously by Matml74 that the company can issue more shares to prevent hostile takeovers. This was a bit before my time. But I wonder if they have any similar way of doing this to prevent Polygon gaining too much control?

I suppose the problem now is that Synairgen are vulnerable to such events and it might all be out of their control now.

I’d guess defunct. Seeing the job adverts for the US disappear was another kick in the unmentionables. I was hoping that the US might have given them a heads up on what the ACTIV-2 P2 data looked like and gave them a nudge to start gearing up. But we now know they have not seen any data, and the jobs being pulled says everything else.

nemethv - anyone who buys 30% of SNG would need to make a cash offer no lower than the highest SP achieved over the previous 12 months. That, I think is £2.23. For that reason, I can’t see Polygon being able to afford that. Unless there really was something very dodgy going on between Polygon and a large pharma…

I don’t think that’s the case, but I’m sure there’s plenty of shareholders that would snap their hands off if getting offered £2.23.

Andybe4 - Polygon won't be able to buy SNG. What are they, £1 billion? There is no way they would put 40% of it into SNG.

Therefore, I can't see them going beyond 29.9%. Unless some very dodgy deal has been done with large pharma. But I doubt that.

Manifesto - remember that while 35 million volume looks very high compared to recently, in monetary terms it's not massively higher.

The only way this gets anywhere near £1 is if we get a bid for the company or ACTIV-2 P2 data is published and very good.

Aether - shorts haven't trashed the price. The fact we failed SPRINTER P3 is the reason.

LongCovidBroadAV - it doesn't work like that. Any bid from anyone has to be at least as much as the SP high over the previous 12 months.

I really don't think there's any funny business going on here. Polygon have just decided to massively lower their average in price for relative peanuts, in the hope ACTIV-2 comes off... it's all that's left if we're being honest.

Thanks for that, HotTip.

Woodstock1970 - I don't think Polygon will be day trading this. That hasn't been their tactic so far. And 45 million shares is hard to trade in and out of without materially disrupting the SP. They are doubling down and hoping for good a ACTIV-2 outcome, like the rest of us. IMO.

Ah, I see the thread has been deleted where I had talked about TR1's.

I was saying that Polygon left it quite literally to the last minute before they had to submit it. They knew it would push the SP up, so I would guess they have been continuing to buy yesterday and even this morning. I would therefore not be surprised to see another TR1 tomorrow or Friday. It should help support the SP in the very near term, however, it will remain far below where us LTH want it to be. Only positive ACTIV-2 data or a very outside chance of a TO will do this.

Alkin - they would have to offer the highest price achieved in the previous 12 months. For this reason, I do not see them breaching 30%. Unless they really are working for a large pharmaceutical company who wants them!

The following is a brief summary of some of the most important Rules:

When a person or group acquires interests in shares carrying 30% or more of the voting rights of a company, they must make a cash offer to all other shareholders at the highest price paid in the 12 months before the offer was announced (30% of the voting rights of a company is treated by the Code as the level at which effective control is obtained).
When interests in shares carrying 10% or more of the voting rights of a class have been acquired by an offeror (i.e. a bidder) in the offer period and the previous 12 months, the offer must include a cash alternative for all shareholders of that class at the highest price paid by the offeror in that period. Further, if an offeror acquires for cash any interest in shares during the offer period, a cash alternative must be made available at that price at least.
If the offeror acquires an interest in shares in an offeree company (i.e. a target) at a price higher than the value of the offer, the offer must be increased accordingly.

Manifesto - up 18% of a much smaller SP! But I’ll take any positive right now.

I still maintain they’ll keep it below that 30%. Beyond that, they’d have to bid for the remaining 70% at £2.23… approx £300 million. They don’t have that.

So it looks like they are looking to average down and take a punt on ACTIV-2 P3 coming off. Crazy to think those 9 million shares they’ve added might not have cost much more than £1-2 million. On Friday, they would have paid £16 million.

Manifesto, I don't think the SP doubling from 10p to 20p on Monday means Polygon were buying. The market at that point is acting irrationally with panic selling.

More likely, people start to think a bit more clearly and realise that £25m of cash equates to 12.p on the SP, that we are still one of just a few who made it through to ACTIV-2 P3, which is worth a little bit, and that we have patents, data, biobanks etc. That adds up to more than 10p. Right now.

If things drag on and we burn through the £25m, the ACTIV trial fails etc then we might re-test those lows.

I'm guessing that Polygon's average in price was around £1.60-1.70.

They own 36.4 million shares which likely cost around £60 million. They could have feasibly bought another 36.4 million over the past couple of days at an average in price of 20-25p for just £7-9 million. It really demonstrates how far the SP has fallen.

In reality, I don't think Polygon will do this because it would mean them owning more than 30% of the company, at which point they have to make a cash offer of £2.23 per share (the highest SP in previous 12 months), as per The Takeover Code.

As I'm writing this, I'm now more unsure of what they'll do. They already have a significant holding that means they can influence what Synairgen does going forward. For example, any fundraises for any potential future trials (outside of government funded trials) would certainly need running past them first, as they would need to be onboard with it. So do they need to increase further, other than to bring their average in price down? Maybe, but only up to that 29.9%... only another £6m worth for them, perhaps.

TL Williams - I don't know if anyone coined that phrase before me, but I regularly called this is "£10p or £10" stock on here.

Even so, it was still a chastening moment when the markets opened following the RNS from hell. To think I could have doubled my holding at the 10p level for just the smallest fraction of what I'd spent to acquire my current shares...

I am waiting "eagerly" just as Synairgen are for the ACTIV-2 P2 data. If that is very positive, along with our own amazing P2 results, then it will be clear that something very wrong has gone on with the SPRINTER P3 trial.

I do think RM needs to update shareholders this week, even if it's just to say there is no update. There could very well be a need to raise more funds at some point in the not too distant future, and he will need as many of us on their side as possible if this does happen.

I'm also waiting to see what Polygon do. They'll need to be onboard with anything. I was expecting a TR1 yesterday or today to see if they are adding/disposing.

Occasionally you talk sense, Ndn71! ;)

Joking aside, I think you’ve probably hit the nail square on the head there. Standard of care must vary massively from one hospital to the next, never mind from country to country. How can you get any consistent comparison data in that case…

ACTIV you would think would be more consistent. But then the “fire we need to put out” won’t necessarily be there for the home patients?