Member Info for Doc83

Size82, what really confuses me is that there was a halfway point futility analysis… how on earth did it pass that? The results weren’t even close to passing the endpoints… how was the trial not stopped last year at this point?

I agree with Gunto that the ACTIV P2 data must be half decent to have passed through to P3. But things like the above happening does still mean I am nervous.

Yes, extremely disappointing from RM and SNG. No contact since last Monday whatsoever. As CEO of a listed company, he has a responsibility to defend the SP and keep his shareholders updated. That update might be that there is no update. I still want to see the whites of the leadership teams eyes and that they themselves still believe in this.

Matterhorn - I rarely disagree with what you say. But there’s no excuse for the RM not to show his face after such a catastrophic fall in the SP. Even a 5 minute flirt with Katie.

US ACTIV phase 3 results will probably be right at the end of 2022.

“Delighted about placebo for P3 - that really is properly good news.”

Can someone let the SP know this is good news? :/

I’ll feel a lot more comfortable once it is confirmed we have actually started phase 3 of ACTIV.

I’ve been slightly negative myself this week, more I suppose not reading too much into Polygon’s buying, given that they also didn’t see Monday happening like the rest of us. But a more positive thought…

P3 trials typically have a 70% chance of success? So in isolation, you could argue there is this chance of ACTIV-2 P3 coming off, which if it did would surely mean an order coming in from the US and the SP hitting new highs. I would have previously said if we failed SPRINTER P3 then the odds are far less than 70% for ACTIV… maybe 10%. But the SPRINTER results (it seems) were very much muddied by the use of steroids.

So I’m really not sure what the odds of success on A2 P3 are now.

Any guesses?

HSD - you can’t seriously believe a hedge fund such a Polygon that actively seeks out “high conviction trades with significant upside potential” is looking to make just 3.6% return!! Equity markets typically give you 7-9% annually over the longer term so Polygon will be looking for double digit returns.

Couldn’t agree more, Docdaneeka.

Sh.1t happens. Mistakes happen. But come out and talk, don’t hide. I thought we’d have something this week from RM. It’s looking like we won’t get anything.

Lol, I disagree again HSD!

Put in numbers us mere mortals might better comprehend… you have a £1 million portfolio. You bought £60k of SNG… it’s gone wrong so you bought another £2.5k. So yes, they could have taken the £7.5k out, £10k in total. £10k out of £1 million. It’s really not that much for such a large portfolio.

Polygon’s first 18% - £50-60m
Polygon’s next 5% - £2.5m

£2.5m is actually not that big of a deal for them, when they’re already down say £50m?!

For transparency, I have increased my own holding by 66.6%. I thought long and hard about it, but I’ve managed to do that for an absolute fraction of my original in cost. I’m already well underwater and this has brought my in price well down. I’m pinning my hopes on ACTIV-2 but have told myself it’s a long shot and have all but written it off in my mind.

Have to agree with Ndn71.

Polygon have already **** £60m, so probably thought what’s another few million to virtually double their holding. I really don’t think they know much more than us.

HSD - the RNS can remain factual and still portray a more positive tone.

And even if the RNS does have to remain completely factual, that is exactly why an interview from RM for us shareholders is needed. He can certainly portray some positivity there.

Communication is so important. I’ll give them this week to get over the shock and decide what they want to say, but it will be very disappointing if we don’t get something soon.

Still no update from RM or SNG. Looking very unlikely we’ll hear from them this week and that is very poor form if they don’t. We suffered a 92% fall at one point… I don’t recall too many worse falls in one day on the market than that.

I acknowledge there might not be much to update on. But just to see their faces, rather than a written RNS, and some reassurance or reiteration of that RNS would be welcome. After all, we do own the company and they are looking after it for us.

First chance to look in here today and not surprised to see Polygon loading up. It’s what we all guessed would happen, and there could well be another TR1 tomorrow.

I’m not getting too excited just yet, though. Polygon didn’t see the Monday RNS coming. And it’s probably the logical move to bring their average right down for a fraction of the original cost, and hope to hell that ACTIV-2 throws up and opportunity.

Getting to 25% will also give them more power. I do not see them bidding for it. They can’t afford it. And I don’t think they are buying for someone else.

HSD - but it wasn’t that simple. It wasn’t as simple that we just failed. Trial protocol, dexamethasone being used, it was a mess. That should have been highlighted more, that “the goalposts had been moved” as one broker note put it.

It’s getting late and you can be obtuse for the hell of it. I think one thing, you think another. Fair enough. But the company should come out and talk to its loyal shareholders and update/reassure them.

TommyD_19 - the RNS was garbage. Many respected posters on here have said the same.

It could have definitely had a more positive tone to it. And what about Delta and Omicron IV results?! At least throw in there that those results came back positive? Anything, as long as factually correct, to stop the SP crashing 92%.

It doesn’t look like we’ll get anything from SNG this week and if not, that’s poor form. An update, even if just to reiterate the few positives in that RNS would be nice and might settle things down a little.

Polygon got it wrong like the rest of us. I wouldn’t put complete faith in them, but I suppose better them buying than bailing out.

Driftwood - here you go:

https://www.polygoninv.com/

They are most definitely not a nominee execution only service like HL!

Driftwood - I don’t know if you are just completely stupid, or if that is the worst attempt at deramping this BB has ever seen (and it’s a low bar)?