Member Info for Doc83

Very much expecting a TR1 this evening, tomorrow at latest. SP now so low that in monetary terms it’s not huge to be triggering them.

J-CIT - what ex big pharma chief is going to come lead SNG right now? My gut feeling is that SNG have been shafted big time and didn’t know their drug was going to be administered along with another drug/steroid.

RM will at some point do an interview or presentation. I’ll reserve final judgment on him till then. But I’m not a fan of people leaving or getting sacked when something goes wrong. They should stay and fix it. Leaving is the easy way out.

I really do hope RM/SNG address us shareholders this week that have supported them thus far.

A lot is going to happen over the coming months...

- The recent senior recruits will surely leave, there's just no need for them now or the foreseeable future. And if a TO comes up, big pharma won't need them.
- Major shareholders (Polar and Polygon and others) will either sell out or consolidate.
- We'll find out of ACTIV-2 P3 will still go ahead. I hope it will but I don't think it's a complete certainty.
- We might get the vultures circling to buy what's left of us on the cheap.
- There might need to be a fundraise. I've seen many times analysts say there's enough cash to last the year but often this turns out not to be the case. And then what? Do you take part in the fundraise so you don't have your holding diluted, or cut your losses?

All of this could put the SP under further pressure. Personally, I told myself pre P3 that if results were badly negative that I would assume the SP went to zero and just stick them in the bottom drawer. I'd suggest everyone else do the same otherwise you'll end up going loopy.

Bernieforpres - well said.

For me, while I also had a decent chunk of change invested here, it is also the fact the dream is over. Even though that is over, I’m still intrigued to see what ends up happening with SNG.

aj242 - that's fine, but let them make their own decisions. Otherwise you're just as bad as the rampers.

My own view is that this isn't quite a dead duck. But the chances are now slim, and it will take a long, long time.

aj242 - you have sold out and clearly have no intention of buying back in anytime soon, right? Then why are you still here?

However, Axe-Capital - SPRINTER was the main trial. SNG said we needed those severe cases... a fire to put out. ACTIV was a bonus and has a small chance of success. If it goes ahead, which I'm nervous about right now.

Polygon will do something. They won’t just sit on their hands.

I also don’t see them as long term holders, waiting five years for any new trials to be set up and completed. They have enough shares to become and aggressive activist investor and could decide to try to force a sale of what’s left of SNG…for example, try to get out with 50p per share. I’m only using that number as an example.

I just don’t think they’ll want to own SNG outright, or for very long. This failed for them. They’ll want to move on to the next investment.

Others know more about them than I do, so would be happy to hear alternative views. Because they will undoubtedly have an impact on the SP whatever they decide to do.

Some incredibly sad stories today. I hope for us all that it’s not the end of the road and the US trials work out better. But it’s a long road back.

As others have said, we have our health. And our lie ins back :D

Manifesto - I am.

They will have discussed at length their plan if this failed. I don’t know whether that will mean adding or reducing. But I would be surprised if they did nothing.

cmww14 - the share price is now so low that even selling £500k worth equates to 1%. At these levels, TR1’s will come sooner rather than later.

What a day indeed.

A lot of anger on here and understandably so. Like everyone else, I want to hear from the company. This was always for me a 50/50 bet, but with the upside being bigger than the downside… a good risk/reward play. I did as much homework on the SNG as I could possibly do, so I’m not beating myself up too badly.
I’m slightly perturbed at all of the ‘soft’ positive signals that came out… the commercialisation agreements, jobs etc. They obviously had no idea (unless they really have been given some kind of heads up from the US and the ACTIV trial), so why not wait? We’d missed Covid anyway and it was more about stockpiling for the future, so why the rush?

It will be interesting to see what Polygon do. If there is a lesson to be learnt, it’s to remember these guys usually know less than us! They now have a serious amount of shares. If they do want to unwind their position, it will trash the price further for them… I’m very confident we’ll have a TR1 tomorrow from them that will tell us if they have added or reduced.

I'm almost 100% certain we'll see a flurry of TR1's going in both directions. The SP is so low now that it doesn't take a huge trade (in £ terms) to get those 1%'s that will trigger them.

Who knows, Polygon may already have bailed out. Presumably they will have had discussed plan B if this failed... for example, buy massively on the dip, or cut their losses if the SP held at a certain level.
Volume is already well north 70 million shares, so even a large chunk of Polygon's 30 million odd can get lost in that. TR1's will presumably start coming through tomorrow.

If it turns out Polygon have/are bailing out, SP will undoubtedly tank further. If they maintain/increase and we get a positive message from RM and SNG, then it might just stabilise around these levels (25-50p) until ACTIV results later this year. LTH just best parking the shares in the bottom drawer and forgetting about it for the forseeable.

As mentioned below, everyone has to make their own decision on what to do next.

For me, at 85% down, there’s little point selling now. I might as well ride it out and wait for the US ACTIV trial, which I think Ndn71 has spot on with a 10% chance of success. But it’s a hell of a wait for this result (probably end of this year) and this last few months has already taken a lot of my hair, or the colour of it anyway!

Small hopes for big pharma to come in and take us as a job lot on the cheap, but it would probably still be far below my in price.

This one hurts. The dreams of £20+ and SNG becoming a big player are over, and that probably hurts as much as the current big paper loss.

Time is a good healer and it has still been good fun to be on here living and breathing this with everyone.

A quick word for RM and the team at SNG. I wasn’t expecting to hear anything today. They’ll be gutted… this isn’t just an investment but their jobs on the line and I’d still like to think they are good guys who have been shafted by patients being given medication on top of our drug. I’m sure we’ll hear from them this week but today is probably too soon.

I reckon RM and the team at SNG will probably be in a state of shock, just like most of us here.

The results are so wildly different to P2 and you can see in their RNS they are unhappy SNG001 has been administered along with steroids.

I don’t think it was their intention to mislead, but perhaps some of the newer senior recruits, like Richard Francis, came on board and pushed things through as if this was a done deal. It will certainly be interesting to see what these people now do… stay and try to salvage something or jump ship? There’s a lot of expensive wages to now pay and you can’t just raise funds from the market to pay these. So my guess would be that they will slowly trickle out of the door.

OK, so largely irrelevant now (although perhaps not for the ACTIV trial). But still no Omicron and Delta IV results. Why the hell not?

I was fully aware of the risks and had told myself beforehand that if it fails, to write off the whole investment but don’t sell any shares. There are small hopes… ACTIV US trial, big pharma taking us over for £1 if we’re very lucky, some other curveball I can’t think of right now.

The thing I’m most confused about is that I thought I was buying into a trial to see if SNG001 worked or not? Not whether SNG001 + Corticosteroids, and whatever else, worked.

No point selling at 11p. I’d always told myself this was a 10p or £10 bet and that the risk reward made it worth it.

As Docdaneeka says below, the last hope is that big pharma thinks our data and expertise in this area is worth buying up. But it’ll be 25-50p.

Best to write this off as worth zero and look back in next year.

I always said 10p or £10, no in between!

Can’t see how ACTIV will be any better.

Staggering how bad the results were versus phase 2.

Been a pleasure knowing most of you. Good luck for future guys.

Failed… ugh