Member Info for Doc83

I think it might have been Andrewpcapp who said something similar but if Synairgen aren’t on a trial or some other materially good news event hasn’t occurred by end of February, then we might all be glad for 35p.

These weeks continue to tick by. Blink and it’ll be Christmas.

Maybe lay off the booze, Hold.

Very much enjoyed reading Tommy’s link about the NIHR RECOVERY trials and focus on long Covid and the criteria. It made me think, if Synairgen don’t get on this trial then what chance do we stand getting on other trials? Even the NIHR’s own senior investigator, Chris Brightling, said of our long Covid data “it merits further investigation”.

“These trials will investigate therapies that are indicated for other non-COVID conditions and novel treatments for Long COVID”

Size82 - agreed. But I also wonder if a JV would be under quite punitive terms. How much of the pie would we have to give up. We are in such a weak negotiating position now and that concerns me.

Aether - the BOD have a chunky amount of shares between them. Simon Shaw, RM and co etc. They’d have to agree to it which I can’t see. And then there’s my significant holding, lol! They’ll need to offer a damn sight more than 35p. I’m going down with the ship if it’s derisory.

Me and Wigster inexplicably missed the “strongly envisage trialling patients this winter” comment, but I think a couple of others confirmed it, so it must have been said.

If there does end up being a fundraise for a new trial, they’d clearly need Polygon, as such a large shareholder, on board. It would be an awkward decision for us pitiful PI’s… decline to contribute and be diluted out of existence or take part and stump up significant amounts of cash. Again. And run the gauntlet of another trial. Again.

Anyone with one whole brain cell knew that the jabs never stopped you spreading it.
I’ll resist giving anymore of my views on the subject.

DocD - "Nobody would question his motives though or whether he's been invested here."

I liked reading Tony's posts pre February, even though I don't believe in reading charts. But I did find it an odd post, though. "I've made all my losses back, GLA and oh, by the way, they'll never sell this thing for £2k a pop...".

DocD - I don't think a definitive figure has ever been given. I'm trying to remember some of RM's old presentations.

I fairly certain the extensive Numis research note from 2020 had their guess down as £2k, and they ran the numbers on it being £1.5k, £2k and £2.5k almost as a bear, base and bull case set of scenarios.

All I know is that if we're successful in a P3 trial, the SP will be well north of where it currently is, even if it is deemed too expensive.

Always makes me feel better when I know someone else has recovered their losses…!

Aether, you say if this reaches breakeven that you'll sell. But if this goes to 80p, it's likely because of some majorly positive news/event for Synairgen. If, hypothetically, we get onto a trial and rumours are rife of a TO, would you really sell at 80p?

Leroy - the sprinter trial failed and since then this has always been a rescue mission. The fact is the odds are against us. The rewards could still therefore be huge. But it’s a long, hard road ahead and I think we need to understand that. I was highly critical of Synairgen with the lack of communication post Feb. But I don’t think they could have done much more since.

I’ve honestly written this off, if only for my own peace of mind. If it comes off, great. If not, I won’t allow myself to feel the pain of February again.

My gut feeling is that there is still plenty left of the Synairgen story to go.

Alkin - I think it would have to be more than 35p to get 90% of shareholders to agree to part with their shares. For a start, lots of the board own a good chunk of shares so they’d need to agree to it. And they’re not having my shares for 35p. I’m sure many on here will have the same view.

Polygon are, by their own admission, high conviction so I doubt they’d have insurance policies or hedges in place that are typically quite expensive. They believed in Synairgen pre Feb and lost a truck load of money (on paper at least) like the rest of us. They still believe in it and are buying cheap shares to average down and hopefully still make a killing if we pass a trial and start commercialising. IMO it’s as simple as that.

Anyway, it’s all pretty irrelevant. Super duper they may be, they still called it wrong pre Feb.

In some respects it’s comforting Polygon are still buying, in that it shows they have confidence and also that we’re not completely crazy or on our own investing in Synairgen.

But I also wonder how positive it really is, having such a large shareholder that can effectively dictate what the board can do. And I’m also fully aware that if polygon were wise and all knowing, they wouldn’t have invested £60m or whatever it was pre February.

Seaboy - if Polygon get up to 30%, they are forced to offer to buy the whole company for no less than the highest price they have bought shares for during the previous 12 months. If they can persuade 90% of shareholders to agree to their offer, the remaining 10% have no choice but to sell their shares to them. Of course, if there was a shareholder with 11%, they’d clearly have to get that person onboard.

Mani - I feel like I need to get such a large holding just so I can block any daft bids! ;)

No surprise Polygon have added. I'd imagine they'll have a criteria in place for buying, for example if Activ-2 P2 data arrives and they like it, they'll buy another 1%.

Good to see, though. And gives me some peace of mind that I'm not on my own when topping up recently.

You'd assume they are going for 29.9% but then what? I suppose what can they do but then wait, because I don't think they'll bid outright, even after Feb 2023 when they could bid as low as 30p ish. For starters, I don't think they'd get to the 90% required to force my own shares out of my hands!

My own view has always been that Polygon think this will ultimately get approved and are massively increasing their stake for about 10% of their original pre February costs. That's what I've been doing. To think 20,000 shares would've cost approx £40k a year ago. Now they'd cost just £3.5k.

Like the rest of the market, the SNG SP is being heavily driven by sentiment rather than the fundamentals. The fact is, we’ve had a great flow of positive news coming through over the last few months. The kind of news which puts us in a more favourable light in that shop window.

The route forward surely has to be a JV or TO. A fund raise is a possibility, and sometimes I think just do it and let’s get on with another shot at a P3 of our own having hopefully learned a few lessons, but realistically I think they’d struggle to convince enough investors to go for it, at least without completely decimating the SP.

Regardless, as Tommy said, this journey is far from over.