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JayKay1

To my mind keef1 made a perfectly reasonable comment to explain why the sp has not moved today. Can we be sure that the hook up is success? There is still no information and by Monday the AM might be back in Cromarty. Given that possibility I personally am not surprised the market is taking a wait and see approach.

escargot

You know Brent is named after the geese. That’s why it does occasionally fly.

Biffadog The main protagonist has been expunged. Missdosh mentioned earlier today.

Biffadog

I wouldn't say the reasons are unknown. I think they are trying to avoid a repeat of the last occasion which resulted in the 'MGW' RNS.

Picking up speed with just under 55 nm to go; she should arrive about 7.00am or earlier if speed increases.

As well as the sea conditions another positive feature of Friday's weather window is the low wind speeds which I am guessing (as a non expert) will make the positioning less demanding.

One of the vessels on Lancaster is likely to be the buoy guard vessel. Also possible there may be an AHTS laying the anchors for TO Leader.

Have to say I'm surprised she left today as a suitable window still seems no earlier than Friday.

For anyone who is curious about the route the Moray windfarm is the reason.

http://www.morayoffshore.com/moray-east/the-project/

see the map bottom of page

MakinHay

19th and 20th look doubtful although the 18th looks like there could be a reasonable window.

Kingfisher report page 6

https://api.seafish.co.uk/index.php/file/5017

Possible start in February

Biffadog

I completely agree with you opinion on the wait for a suitable weather widow. How long is impossible to forecast. Certainly not the next fortnight but after that is anybody’s guess so could easily go into February or possibly even March. We can all hope but that won't change the weather.

With nothing to do on the Lancaster front it might be worth keeping an eye on Transocean Leader. Currently at Kraken she is supposed to be on contract with HUR from February.

wellwell
I thought you were overly bullish suggesting they missed the apparent weather window earlier this week. Personally I thought it was borderline and not at all surprised she stayed put.

Must have run out of peanuts

I find it quite pathetic those posters who cannot tolerate any critical analysis and respond with “sell and move on”. It does confirm they are individuals who only want to hear the good news.
A poster concurring with an assessment by Rangers 1 has attracted a torrent but strangely no criticism of Rangers post.

escargot

MGW titles his blog as "my reaction to oil sector news as it arises"

The fact is there has been no news from HUR. In his tweet MGW said he called RT following the number of tweets expressing concern about the AM. Being a cynic I am thinking maybe HUR are using MGW as an alternative to an RNS

Sonofthebull

When she left Aberdeen the stated destination was Cromarty and it is difficult to come to any other reasonable conclusion that this was to wait for a suitable weather window. Why would they choose Cromarty over Lerwick which is obviously much nearer Lancaster? Does it not suggest that for whatever reason Lerwick is not suitable?

As you say wellwell it is a matter of were she stops.

Will it be an anchorage or a port facility. Balnapaling would be a concern

The Company will obviously be aware that the boats movements are being observed.

Why did they put out an RNS for the one day delay at Algeciras; surely because they knew there would be speculation. If vessel tracking were not possible why would they bother?

On that basis I think it is at least reasonable to expect an RNS.

Does anyone know if the SIBC report, “SIBC news: The floating production, storage and offloading vessel Aoka Mizu is now stationed in the Lancaster early production system field, with its position 75 nautical miles west of Walls, connected to the yellow-coloured turret mooring buoy that underwent work at Mairs South.” was based on anything other than speculation.

03/01/2019 / Grampian Sovereign / Hurricane / Supply Duties / 1 year + 2 x 1 year opts / P + C

There is another indicator.
Ever since the buoy was installed there has been a guard vessel on site. Once hook up is complete there will be no further requirement and I have been watching Maggie M (GV Courage) to see if she departs. Her continued presence does tend to confirm that hook up did not happen.

JK, Dr BB

Yes she has moved a considerable distance so looks like I have made a false conclusion