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We are told that a draft FDP has been submitted to the NSTA, and we have also been told to expect FDP approval in the second half of this year. NSTA approval of the FDP will trigger the remaining farmout payments from NEO and Serica so if they had any doubts about committing to a FID would they agree to submit the definitive FDP knowing that on approval they will have to pay up?
Serica are doing a presentation on Investor Meet today at 2.00pm. Might be worth viewing to see if there is any mention of Buchan and movement on the FDP.
Boka Atlantis, a diving support vessel has arrived at Western Isles which suggests the FPSO may soon be on its way to a port.
Brightsideoflife
In that case there is no doubt that you are entitled to the DCU payment. Speak to HSBC again and ask them to comfirm you are entitled and when you will receive payment. If they cannot give a satisfactory answer raise the matter as a formal complaint. You need to make a formal complaint so you can take it to the regulator should that become necessary. You might also ask HSBC if they intend to resolve the issue that has delayed payment so that it does not happen next time.
Onthe6
You presume to think what other holders will be happy with.
Not wise.
No I am not happy because there is no evidence to support your claim. If there is information in the public domain then you should be able to back up your claim with proof. Or is it just more false information?
"The 12.5p is not from HUR stand alone only but has some contribution from Prax buying some assets to use the tax losses which they will soon"
How soon Kever.? How soon is soon? I have asked many times but you still refuse to answer. Are you a man or a mouse? Stand up like a man and answer the question.
Hi Laserdisc
If they did offload in February I can see no reason for not taking the full load which I have estimated to be 330K and if correct then I estimate the next offload will be around 18th May.
Calculation:
Feb 3.4 days=22.406+ March @ say 6.52=202.12+ April @ say 6.45=193.5 makes a total of 418.026 and needs another 17.5 days @ say 6.38 to make the usual 530K load.
Futhermore if there was no offload then AM would now be holding around 560K well above the usual load and with no tanker in sight it all points to a February offload. Another week and it will be clear but I am expecting mid May for the next.
NSTA have today published February production, and after January’s blip the figure is 6.59 which corresponds with what you might expect from extrapolation.
These are the last four months figures (mb/d)
November oil 6.87 water 8.95
December oil 6.72 water 9.01
January oil 5.69 water 7.69
February oil 6.59 water 9.04
I doubt that the next payment in September will be 0.9p. At best I calculate around 0.8p-0.88p and at worst it could be 0.6p-0.66p. The uncertainty is due in part to the reduced production rate in January but also the question of whether there was an offload in February.
Laserdisc reported “Amundsen spirit moored at Am on 25th (February) at 19.48 unmoored on 26th at 14.34pm” I questioned whether there had been an offload because there was no reported increase in draught. Laserdisc suggested this might be due to ballast adjustment which may or may not be the case, but if there was infact an offload I calculate the maximum load at 330K given the production rate and timescale since the previous offload
So if there was an offload in February we will only get one more before end of June meaning that total production will be around 200K less than that to produce 0.9p. The only positive is the higher oil price hence my estimate of 0.8p-0.88p. However if there was no offload in February we should be due one about now but having reached the three month mark it is extremely unlikely there will be another before the end of June meaning revenue from two offloads only hence 0.6p-0.66p.
How soon Kever?
How soon Kever?
Bernstein.
Last year you were saying they had 2 deals lined up. What happened to them? Now you are saying soon, but how soon is soon Kever? I have asked before but you have not answered. Pray tell oh wise one. When will we have a deal?
Hi Laserdisc
Thanks for the heads up. It is as I was expecting but I am still puzzled about the visit last month.
The Prax DCU statement will only tell us about last year. They are not going to comment on anything else. I will report February production next month when the NSTA publish, and it will provide some guidance on the timing of the next offload and whether it will be end of June or July.
If you are thinking of electing note that you will not be able to sell and results are out on the 21st. Personally I am inclined to take the dividend in full as what you will get from the offer is far too uncertain.
January’s production figure are just out and there is a noticeable reduction.
I have shown the last three months for comparison; figures are mb/d
November oil 6.87 water 8.95
December oil 6.72 water 9.01
January oil 5.69 water 7.69
The reduction is significantly more than you would expect from the historic decline rate and suggests either a temporary shut down or a deliberate reduction in flowrate. It will be interesting to see February’s figures next month and the timing of the next offloads but I am concerned that the September DCU payment will be less than expected.
“ I expect a deal soon”
How soon is soon Kever?
Give us a date.
Last year it was two deals lined up. What happened to them?
Who are your sources Kever that are so reliable?
If they are then you can give us all a date.
Answer the questions Kever.
Hank13
The interval between the last two offloads was 78, or 79 days and with the declining production rate the intervals will only get longer.
As the last offload extended into 2024 it will almost certainly be outside the last accounting period so the March payment will be around 0.6p, possibly 0.61p or 0.62p due to the higher oil price of around 85USD for the October offload. We should hopefully get 3 offloads within the current accounting period, but it will be close as the third offload will be very near the end of June and it all depends on the production decline rate. If it is 3 offloads 0.9p is a reasonable expectation but it will be subject to fluctuation in the oil price.
A further 2 offloads in H2 2024 seems a reasonable expectation with 0.6p paid in March 2025 but again this is subject to the oil price. Beyond that the declining production rate makes it too difficult to predict when further offloads will take place within the remaining accounting periods. By 2025 I expect 4 offloads maximum.
I have no expectation of Prax buying production assets despite the unsubstantiated claims of a certain member. At some point I expect Prax to carry out work to increase the production rate but whether this will be intime to benefit DCU holders is extremely doubtful.
The recent visit by Amundsen Spirit remains a mystery. The timing was wrong and AS is now enroute to Rotterdam reporting a draught of 9m compared to 9.2m on the outbound journey. I expect to see a tanker in the third or fourth week of March.