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"soon"
How soon is soon Kever?
Give us a date.
Last year it was two deals lined up. What happened to them?
Who are your sources Kever that are so reliable?
If they are then you can give us all a date.
Didas
Directors buying should be an indicator there are no talks as this would be price sensative information.
High Laser,
This is interesting because the recent known production rate indicated mid March for the next offload. Will this be a short load or have Prax carried out work to increase production? Time will tell.
Onthe 6/EinbertAlstein
JOG’s latest presentation does indeed say they are fully funded to first oil but this is qualified with footnote (1) which reads “Full carry for JOG’s 20% share of Buchan pre-FDP costs plus the development capital expenditure budget included in the Buchan FDP approved by the NSTA” and needs to be read carefully. You also need to read the FO agreement terms which for NEO read “12.5% carry of the Buchan field development costs included in the FDP approved by the North Sea Transition Authority ("NSTA"); equivalent to a 1.25 carry ratio” and for Serica “7.5% carry of the Buchan field development costs, up to the budget included in the approved FDP; equivalent to a 1.25 carry ratio”
All of this suggests to me they have guaranteed full carry to FDA approval but only full carry on the budgeted cost of field development post approval by the NTSA meaning that if the actual field development costs exceed the budgeted cost JOG will have to contribute.
The field development programme will include rig hire plus the purchase and installation of all the subsea structure, so a substantial amount and if there is a cost overrun my perception is that JOG will have to contribute 20% of that overrun.
I raised this question previously, see my post 25 Jan 2024 23:22 when I asked for views and opinions.
CUPHALFFULL
I assume you have heard the expression 'the lesser of two evils'.
There is also 'a change is a good as a rest' which I suspect is what the electorate want, but it will just be a mattter of time before they start kicking themselves.
With no news it is hard to know what is driving the sp down. I'm thinking of moving more money in for what is an excellent yield but where will it bottom?
In your dreams Ed.
Onthe6
If it was a sale the sp would have crashed. I am inclined to agree with Rollo, (Today 10:31).
Is that all you can manage Kever insults? The posting rules are those of London South East, nothing to do with the Stock Exchange. Prax can do due diligence till it is coming out of their backsides but that does not mean a deal is imminent. Cretin.
The suggestion that JOG do a buy back is preposterous and I’m surprised dickupham that you deem it necessary to expend time on a lengthy rebuttal.
What I think does merit some discussion is the matter of funding through to “first oil”. The Zeus note claims JOG is fully carried, “JOG holds a fully carried 20% interest in the Greater Buchan Area”, but is this correct as there appears to be caveats in the terms with both NEO and Serica. In the NEO deal the carry is JOG's 50% share of the estimated $25 million cost to take the Buchan field through to FDP approval. Does this leave JOG liable for a share of the field development costs beyond approval? The Serica deal is clearer “7.5% carry of the Buchan field development costs, up to the budget included in the approved FDP; equivalent to a 1.25 carry ratio” which seems to mean JOG will only have to contribute if the actual field development costs exceed the budgeted costs. Bare in mind that these costs will be significant requiring the hiring of a rig to drill 5 producer wells and 2 injector wells as well as purchase and installation of all the subsea structure. Hopefully NEO will secure a rig contract at planned cost but it is unrealistic to expect an agreed contract before FDP approval and FID. It seems to me that JOG is not guaranteed full carry to first oil and could this be a reason the current weakness in the share price?
I would be happy to be proved wrong but no one seems to have commented on this matter so I would be grateful for any views and opinions.
I also find it odd that Zeus are talking about potential for acquisitions, “Now that the Buchan farm out has been achieved, we would expect JOG could potentially look to expand and diversify its portfolio via new acquisitions, possibly adding production volumes ahead of Buchan first oil”.
If they are fully carried to first oil then yes acquisitions might be considered, but if not it would be prudent to hang on to their cash to cover any possible shortfall from the carry.
According to the Environmental Statement the Serica deal should finalize this month so I’m looking forward to an RNS and hopefully some upward movement in the share price.
MPO818
If you search JS in members you will get no result which suggests a permanent ban. It seems he threatened physical violence on member Kever so the ban is understandable. I was never that bothered with his rants and sometimes they could be amusing.
Kever however is an arrogant, abusive and provocative member who frequently makes unsubstantiated claims amounting to market abuse, and is much more deserving of a ban than JS.
If you take a bit of time to read the boards where he posts you will understand.
“Prax have lined up numerous deals to use the HUR tax credits I am told”
Where is the evidence to support this claim Kever? It is not the first time you have made it and nothing has materialized yet. That is a FACT. If you have insider knowledge then you are flouting posting rule 5 b (post any confidential or price sensitive information or that is not public knowledge), and if it is speculation then 5 c (post misleading or false statements regarding the share price and performance. Such posts are deemed as market abuse, and may be reported to the appropriate authorities).
I suggest you are someone who has a warped understanding of the truth.
Hi Laser
No surprise. It just confirms their expectation of continued production, unlike the prediction of doom and gloom in the scam sale to Prax.
Still waiting to hear of the mystic production deals Prax said they were going to do, but not holding my breath.
Greener
There are three options with gas, 1) flare, 2) reinject and 3) export.
It is highly unlikely the NTSA would grant approval for flareing so it has to be reinjection or export and if reinjection is unsuitable for the field it has to be export and that requires a pipeline.
EinbertAlstein
I agree that they need to do all they can to bring institutional investors on board but you cannot accuse AB of not bothering. Jimm333 posted on 5th October last year saying “AB was in London yesterday seeing institutional investors”
You can only do so many of these promotions and such events will not always be notified by RNS.
The next milestone will be completion of the Serica farm out on NSTA approval. If the timescale is similar as that for the NEO deal it should be around mid February.
In my opinion this will be a significant event which AB and the bod should take advantage of as an opportunity to get the message across that JOG is now firmly established on the road to becoming a producer. I would also like to see an updated presentation setting out the steps to the start up of production. If you remember the last presentation was published on the FPSO acquisition. The Serica deal followed shortly thereafter but without an updated presentation so NSTA approval and completion of the Serica farm out will be an ideal time.
Corryvreckan1
I think you are right in that the next DCU payment will only consist of revenue from two offloads. Also I think 0.6p is more likely. However the next payment, end of September should be from three offloads rather the two. It means that Prax make an extra six months interest on our money.
Spondy
I posted a link for the letter on 20/12/23, but here it is again:
https://democrats-energycommerce.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/democrats-energycommerce.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/12182023-letter-to-diversified-energy.pdf
I do not have the reply.
Thanks. I thought it might be him. I know his style from another board, provocative and argumentative. He's a nasty piece of work and inclined to makes unfounded claims.
Apologies for going off topic.
MPO818
I looked at the PANR chat out of curiosity to see who was threatened but I suspect the post, or posts have been deleted, Can you name the member who claimed to have been threatened.
Hi Laserdisc
Looks like my f a g packet calculation was spot on, and it suggests a minimal decline in the production rate.