Member Info for DiveCentre

Hi Laser

Looking at wave conditions it could be the 31st.

I think we are going to have a repeat of yast year.

Thanks Laser.

Both have left, probably "let go"

Maris is advertising himself on Linkedin as a Corporate advisor, and under experience his position with Prax Upstream is shown as ending June 24. The entry reads:

General Manager, Growth & Regulatory Relations Prax Upstream Prax Upstream Full-time Jul 2023 - Jun 2024 1 yr.

Chaffe posted 6 months ago on Linkedin” I’m happy to share that I’m starting a new position as Group Commercial Finance Director at Low Carbon!”

Pleased to hear that JS but you have been the main culprit in responding when mummy squarks.

Aragon have been awarded a front-end engineering and design contract for the redeployment of an FPSO. This is not a contract for the actual work and it is not unreasonable to incur the cost of this contract notwithstanding the project is still subject to FID.

Given the production rate over the last twelve months I find it hard to imagine that Prax would initiate contract cancellation. The risks mentioned in their report have always been there and yet Lancaster continues to produce. If Lancaster remains profitable there is no logic in closing down prematurely. Clearly the rate will continue to decline and Bluewater will be mindful of this and could pull the plug themselves if a better opportunity presents itself. However with regard to a possible redeployment to the Falklands Offshore Energy reported (26/11/2024) that Navitas has now scheduled FID for mid 2025, in which case it is hard to imagine Bluewater would initiate contract cancellation without a firm contract from Navitas.

So it seems reasonably certain Prax will continue with the AM for at least the next 12 months.

Another point to bare in mind is that the AM has a maximum fluid handling capacity of 35,000 bpd, and oil maximum of 30,000 bpd. Rockhopper are saying the hydrocarbons will initially be produced through the redeployed FPSO with a peak production rate of up to 55,000 bbls/d, which is well in excess of AM's maximum capacity.

October production has just been published by the NSTA and somewhat surprisingly the figure is 6.37 mb/d. I say surprisingly because in view of the August and September figures it indicates minimal shut down time for annual maintenance which is usually in August. It also confirms how little the decline rate has been over the year. To give some perspective these are the monthly figures in mb/d:

January 5.69

February 6.59

March 6.73

April 6.78

May 6.65

June 6.66

July 5.98

August 6.45

September 6.24

October 6.37

Which gives an average daily rate for the current year of 6.41, and just shows how production is holding up when you compare the October rate; and far from the doom and gloom figures put out by Maris and Chaffe in promoting the Prax deal.

I have estimated revenue from the last two offloads at $75.2213 million and, subject to exchange rate fluctuation a payment of £0.00505 per DCU in March next year. However there remains the remote possibility of a further offload before year end which will obviously increase the payment.

Shell wins appeal against landmark dutch climate ruling.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/shell-wins-appeal-against-landmark-dutch-climate-ruling-2024-11-12/

Just shows how absurd the Finch ruling is.

Zeus Research have published an audio note which can be accessed via JOG’s website, analysts reports.

The NSTA published September production yesterday, the figure being 6.21 mb/d which suggests there was little if any shutdown time during August and September. Based on information posted here I had estimated 15 days shutdown in September but that is clearly wrong. Will have to wait for the October figure.

as always thanks jim for that update. for those who have not yet found it this is a link to the zeus update:

https://*********************/companies/uk/oil-gas-e-ps/jersey-oil-gas-plc/research/zeus-capital/jersey-oil-gas-jog-ln-uk-tax-update-provides-additional-clarity/cb52a6fd-d592-4953-b603-0d6a3d3eaa96/b368876a-62a0-4160-8264-b477bfffc214

MT looks like you called it wrong.

Hi Laser

Regarding the maintenance shutdown I am content to rely on the information provided by Pisces21 in his post on 19/09: “I was in the area mid August until a few days ago and the AM was flaring until Monday” which suggests the shutdown started no earlier than the 15th. Your post 08/10 in reply to my post on the resumption of flaring “I just had a look yes heat map indicated 171 hrs ago” suggests a 2 week shutdown during the second half of September.

I haven’t posted here my calculations of expected return from the Total Energies deal because no one has asked and there are still too many uncertainties. I mentioned it on the other board because the subject had been raised but no one seemed to grasp the fact that 90% of production is gas and therefore subject to the gas price rather than the oil price.

Senseman

Production figures indicate there must have been an offload sometime in July. Unfortunatelly it was not spotted so when exactly is an unknown. I am waiting for September production figures which will reported beginning November and will then have stab at guessing when the July offload happened, and the next DCU payment. It will definately be 2 offloads during the period, so around 0.5p. The date of the July offload is critical because Brent prices fell dramatically on the 19th.

Altera Thule is showing destination Lancaster oil field.

ETA: 2024-10-15 17:00

Or perhaps you meant unreliable energy.

Hi laser

Checking the thermal map it looks like AM is flaring again . Also noted the NSTA have corrected the August production figures and are now showing 6.45mb/d for August. Waiting for the next offload, which may provide some clue as to when they offloaded in July.

DC

If you take the time to read this board you will find answers to both your questions. It is somewhat presumptuous to expect others to do the leg work for you.

Not as bad as how long Prax hold on to our share of revenue before paying out.

NSTA have just published Lancaster production for August and the figure shown is 64.52 which must be an error. Water production is reported as 10.12 which compares with 9.28 for July and suggests 6.452 is the correct figure. It means there must have been an offload in July as total production since the May offload is 685k barrels and more than the AM’s holding capacity. Pisces21's post on the 19th would seem to verify this.