Member Info for DiveCentre

Bernstein.

Last year you were saying they had 2 deals lined up. What happened to them? Now you are saying soon, but how soon is soon Kever? I have asked before but you have not answered. Pray tell oh wise one. When will we have a deal?

Hi Laserdisc

Thanks for the heads up. It is as I was expecting but I am still puzzled about the visit last month.

The Prax DCU statement will only tell us about last year. They are not going to comment on anything else. I will report February production next month when the NSTA publish, and it will provide some guidance on the timing of the next offload and whether it will be end of June or July.

If you are thinking of electing note that you will not be able to sell and results are out on the 21st. Personally I am inclined to take the dividend in full as what you will get from the offer is far too uncertain.

January’s production figure are just out and there is a noticeable reduction.

I have shown the last three months for comparison; figures are mb/d

November oil 6.87 water 8.95

December oil 6.72 water 9.01

January oil 5.69 water 7.69

The reduction is significantly more than you would expect from the historic decline rate and suggests either a temporary shut down or a deliberate reduction in flowrate. It will be interesting to see February’s figures next month and the timing of the next offloads but I am concerned that the September DCU payment will be less than expected.

“ I expect a deal soon”

How soon is soon Kever?

Give us a date.

Last year it was two deals lined up. What happened to them?

Who are your sources Kever that are so reliable?

If they are then you can give us all a date.

Answer the questions Kever.

Hank13

The interval between the last two offloads was 78, or 79 days and with the declining production rate the intervals will only get longer.

As the last offload extended into 2024 it will almost certainly be outside the last accounting period so the March payment will be around 0.6p, possibly 0.61p or 0.62p due to the higher oil price of around 85USD for the October offload. We should hopefully get 3 offloads within the current accounting period, but it will be close as the third offload will be very near the end of June and it all depends on the production decline rate. If it is 3 offloads 0.9p is a reasonable expectation but it will be subject to fluctuation in the oil price.

A further 2 offloads in H2 2024 seems a reasonable expectation with 0.6p paid in March 2025 but again this is subject to the oil price. Beyond that the declining production rate makes it too difficult to predict when further offloads will take place within the remaining accounting periods. By 2025 I expect 4 offloads maximum.

I have no expectation of Prax buying production assets despite the unsubstantiated claims of a certain member. At some point I expect Prax to carry out work to increase the production rate but whether this will be intime to benefit DCU holders is extremely doubtful.

The recent visit by Amundsen Spirit remains a mystery. The timing was wrong and AS is now enroute to Rotterdam reporting a draught of 9m compared to 9.2m on the outbound journey. I expect to see a tanker in the third or fourth week of March.

"soon"

How soon is soon Kever?

Give us a date.

Last year it was two deals lined up. What happened to them?

Who are your sources Kever that are so reliable?

If they are then you can give us all a date.

Didas

Directors buying should be an indicator there are no talks as this would be price sensative information.

High Laser,

This is interesting because the recent known production rate indicated mid March for the next offload. Will this be a short load or have Prax carried out work to increase production? Time will tell.

Onthe 6/EinbertAlstein

JOG’s latest presentation does indeed say they are fully funded to first oil but this is qualified with footnote (1) which reads “Full carry for JOG’s 20% share of Buchan pre-FDP costs plus the development capital expenditure budget included in the Buchan FDP approved by the NSTA” and needs to be read carefully. You also need to read the FO agreement terms which for NEO read “12.5% carry of the Buchan field development costs included in the FDP approved by the North Sea Transition Authority ("NSTA"); equivalent to a 1.25 carry ratio” and for Serica “7.5% carry of the Buchan field development costs, up to the budget included in the approved FDP; equivalent to a 1.25 carry ratio”

All of this suggests to me they have guaranteed full carry to FDA approval but only full carry on the budgeted cost of field development post approval by the NTSA meaning that if the actual field development costs exceed the budgeted cost JOG will have to contribute.

The field development programme will include rig hire plus the purchase and installation of all the subsea structure, so a substantial amount and if there is a cost overrun my perception is that JOG will have to contribute 20% of that overrun.

I raised this question previously, see my post 25 Jan 2024 23:22 when I asked for views and opinions.

CUPHALFFULL

I assume you have heard the expression 'the lesser of two evils'.

There is also 'a change is a good as a rest' which I suspect is what the electorate want, but it will just be a mattter of time before they start kicking themselves.

With no news it is hard to know what is driving the sp down. I'm thinking of moving more money in for what is an excellent yield but where will it bottom?

In your dreams Ed.

Onthe6

If it was a sale the sp would have crashed. I am inclined to agree with Rollo, (Today 10:31).

Is that all you can manage Kever insults? The posting rules are those of London South East, nothing to do with the Stock Exchange. Prax can do due diligence till it is coming out of their backsides but that does not mean a deal is imminent. Cretin.

The suggestion that JOG do a buy back is preposterous and I’m surprised dickupham that you deem it necessary to expend time on a lengthy rebuttal.

What I think does merit some discussion is the matter of funding through to “first oil”. The Zeus note claims JOG is fully carried, “JOG holds a fully carried 20% interest in the Greater Buchan Area”, but is this correct as there appears to be caveats in the terms with both NEO and Serica. In the NEO deal the carry is JOG's 50% share of the estimated $25 million cost to take the Buchan field through to FDP approval. Does this leave JOG liable for a share of the field development costs beyond approval? The Serica deal is clearer “7.5% carry of the Buchan field development costs, up to the budget included in the approved FDP; equivalent to a 1.25 carry ratio” which seems to mean JOG will only have to contribute if the actual field development costs exceed the budgeted costs. Bare in mind that these costs will be significant requiring the hiring of a rig to drill 5 producer wells and 2 injector wells as well as purchase and installation of all the subsea structure. Hopefully NEO will secure a rig contract at planned cost but it is unrealistic to expect an agreed contract before FDP approval and FID. It seems to me that JOG is not guaranteed full carry to first oil and could this be a reason the current weakness in the share price?

I would be happy to be proved wrong but no one seems to have commented on this matter so I would be grateful for any views and opinions.

I also find it odd that Zeus are talking about potential for acquisitions, “Now that the Buchan farm out has been achieved, we would expect JOG could potentially look to expand and diversify its portfolio via new acquisitions, possibly adding production volumes ahead of Buchan first oil”.

If they are fully carried to first oil then yes acquisitions might be considered, but if not it would be prudent to hang on to their cash to cover any possible shortfall from the carry.

According to the Environmental Statement the Serica deal should finalize this month so I’m looking forward to an RNS and hopefully some upward movement in the share price.

MPO818

If you search JS in members you will get no result which suggests a permanent ban. It seems he threatened physical violence on member Kever so the ban is understandable. I was never that bothered with his rants and sometimes they could be amusing.

Kever however is an arrogant, abusive and provocative member who frequently makes unsubstantiated claims amounting to market abuse, and is much more deserving of a ban than JS.

If you take a bit of time to read the boards where he posts you will understand.

“Prax have lined up numerous deals to use the HUR tax credits I am told”

Where is the evidence to support this claim Kever? It is not the first time you have made it and nothing has materialized yet. That is a FACT. If you have insider knowledge then you are flouting posting rule 5 b (post any confidential or price sensitive information or that is not public knowledge), and if it is speculation then 5 c (post misleading or false statements regarding the share price and performance. Such posts are deemed as market abuse, and may be reported to the appropriate authorities).

I suggest you are someone who has a warped understanding of the truth.