Member Info for DiveCentre

Hazbeen

They went ex dividend today. Any one buying today does not get the dividend which is why the price dropped this morning.

The sp has now recovered about half the dividend.

If a takeover approach were to be made what do you think would be offered and is that likely to be sufficient for the Bod to recommend acceptance? My view is that no one is going to offer anything like enough to satisfy the Bod, and is anyone going to chance a hostile bid? Doubtful.

If these sales today are traders who bought on the farm out news it’s hard to see what profits they’ve made given the opening price on Thursday.

I think there was an expectation the sp would go higher and since it has not traders have decided to exit. Hopefully when they have all moved on buyers who realise the true potential will come back in.

Dickupham

I suggest Trans World Airways plus a cuppa.

Thunder2040

I agree. The rise today is disappointing when you compare it to the move on the NEO FO news. That was from 153p to 332p and yet todays news which provides JOG with a full carry and 20% retention only produced a peak of 265p. I was expecting it to go back over 300p at least. Clearly the potential has not been fully appreciated by “the market” and we will have to wait. Hopefully Simon Thompson's article in the IC will enlighten a few.

Upon completion of the Serica Farm-out, JOG will have a 20% interest in the GBA licences and a full carry on the capital expenditure required to bring the Buchan field into production.

Absolutely Fabulous.

Zeus have updated their coverage following Friday’s RNS.

Conclusion: The NEO farm out deal has marked a material step forward for JOG on its GBA project. This underpins the company at a 12.5% fully carried interest in the field development costs of Buchan, with further upside on a second deal that could ultimately see JOG with a fully carried interest of 20-25%. Moreover, the introduction of NEO as a partner, with its technical and funding capabilities, is a strong endorsement of the project, and should help underpin a second farm out for JOG, in our view. The company is well-funded from its end 2022 £6.6m cash holding, full carry through FEED under the NEO deal, and additional cash milestone payments totalling US$23.9m. Going forward, we expect further detail of the FPSO development plan, a potential second farm out, regulatory submission of the full Buchan development plan in H1 2024 and then FID in H2 2024. This represents a string of catalysts to help unwind the discount to our valuation – we value the shares at our total risked NAV of 702p. Given the strong position JOG is in post the NEO farm out deal, the catalysts from progressing this and the Buchan development into 2024, and the discount to our NAV, we have a positive outlook for the shares.

Note that the share valuation remains unchanged at 702p. Apart from the usual risks attached to any ongoing oil development the one big factor will be what proportion JOG can retain if they succeed in achieving another farm out, but what remains unclear to me is whether the analysts valuations are based on the expectation of another farm out or the minimum 12.5% retention with NEO taking the remaining 37.5% if JOG cannot get a deal. Either way there should be upside but the question is how much difference will it make. As to milestones I guess FID will be significant but NEO look pretty committed to this project and whilst FID cannot be taken for granted it looks highly likely. FID will only happen when the remaining farm out option has been determined but when it does you would expect the market to take note. As far as regulatory approvals JOG seems to have a good relationship with the NSTA and the project appears to tick all the right boxes so I don’t anticipate any significant problems.

MPO818

There’s no need to be disappointed regarding the farm-out. Its hardly likely they would finalise a deal and the FPSO acquisition on the same date. They have reaffirmed their stated strategy to farm-out a further interest in the GBA licences which indicates they are still in discussion with potential partners and failing a deal there is the fallback position of NEO taking a further 37.5% interest.

Presentation:

https://wp-jerseyoilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/11/20231117-JOG-Corporate-Presentation-vF.pdf

FPSO Acquisition

Jersey Oil & Gas (AIM: JOG), an independent upstream oil and gas company ‎focused on the UK Continental Shelf region of the North Sea, is pleased to announce that the owners of the Buchan field licences, JOG and NEO Energy ("NEO"), have executed agreements to acquire the "Western Isles" floating production, storage and offloading ("FPSO") vessel. The FPSO will be used as the processing facility for the planned redevelopment of the Buchan field.

"contact the FCA"

LOL

As it they will be interested.

If you lucky you might get a generic email reply 30 days after emailing them

Your post Kever 1 Jul 2023 21:30

What is the point of having a contract if it can be dishonouredwith impunity?

Shell and BP will both have robust legal teams and if they have a case they should seeks enforcement through the courts.

For someone who has constantly moaned about Benitz and the BoD sitting on their backsides doing nothing this comment from JS is hilarious:

“Big investors who I have a lot of respect for have something you don’t which is PATIENCE”

This is why I don’t have you on filter.

A buy recommendation from Tempus in the Times:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/oil-major-adrift-after-loss-of-skipper-72ldmrphh

He placed an order and couldn’t buy.

I wonder why?

He only wanted 20K.

And the MM’s said try ebay.

It does make me wonder when people ask questions like this because the information is very easily found.

However:

The previous interim dividend was paid 3/3/23 so expect the next around a similar date in 24. It will be announced in the Interim results expected late January or early February.

Unfortunately this interview by David Blackmon is far to cosy. Why did he not raise the matter of the current sp weakness?

Interesting to see the Linked In post by Neo now has 129 reactions, which indicates a good number of people, mainly industry, who will now be aware of development. I wonder how many will connect it with JOG and consider the investment potential.

Noob