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DonkeyOatey
There are shareholders who have sufficient to call for an EGM but they have not. Ask yourself why not. One of them posts on this board. Ask him if he agrees with you.
The RNS on the 15th advised of the intended admission of the Option Shares due to options having been exercised by a number of former employees. Note the word former.
Personally I have no problem with directors renumeration provided they deliver on what was promised and so far, although somewhat later than hoped for they have.
This is a link to the letter. I don’t think it has been posted before but apologies if it has. I cannot believe the timing of this letter and the NYSE listing is pure coincidence. It stinks to high heaven.
https://democrats-energycommerce.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/democrats-energycommerce.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/12182023-letter-to-diversified-energy.pdf
Buchanan101
If that is the case the please explain why the share price is still 209.5p and not 500p.
CUPHALFULL
After announcing a second farm out which leaves the Company with 20% and full carry I am extremely disappointed the share price is still only 209p. Ask yourself why investors are so reluctant to pile into a company which the analysts are saying should be worth 600-700p. What are the potential risks seen by investors that makes them shy away from a 300% profit over three years. Oil price, political, failure to complete the project, or the stated production target is not acheived? Please let me know if you disagree or if there are other risks I have overlooked. By end of 2024 there will still be almost two years to go before start up and all these risks will still be there.
Bare in mind that short of some disaster befalling the Western Isles all the events through 2024 are almost guaranteed to happen and within the stated timescale.
So if the share price is still only 300p in twelve months time it will not be due to anything going catastrophically wrong, simply a consequence of the remaining uncertainly as to what will happen over the next 2years. You might also consider that 300p would represent a 43% profit in twelve months on todays price and who would say no to that if it was a guaranteed dead cert. Then there is the timescale to production because if you are of the view that there will not be any significant rise until we are nearing production then why not put your money to use elsewhere. As Greener says 5% on guilts.
It's anybody’s guess as to which particular events will propel the share price, excepting of course the possibility of an offer being made. Some here are keen to see an offer and I have no quibbles with that, but if it is a recommended offer will everyone be happy with the price offered, or will some feel cheated?
The prospect of an offer is something to keep investers on board and encourage others, but with the share price at it current level I cannot see anyone making a realistic offer and one sufficient to gain an acceptance recommendation.
The next milestone will be completion of the Serica farm out on NSTA approval. This will trigger the $6.8 million cash payment. If the timescale is the same as that for the NEO deal it should be mid-February 2024.
Next will be submission of the Buchan field re-development plan to the NSTA expected during the first half of 2024, (hopefully JOG will RNS this) and approval later in 2024. Approval will trigger the further cash payments, $12.5 million from NEO and $7.5 million from Serica.
Also there will be handover of the Western Isles FPSO which is scheduled to come off-station around the second half of 2024. All of these events will take the project nearer to completion and ought to keep the share price moving in a positive direction. If it has not reached a steady £3 by the end of 2024 I will be disappointed.
The second farm out was announced only 6 days after the FPSO announcement and I wonder if they expected to conclude a deal so soon. Rather than putting out a somewhat lacklustre presentation on the FPSO news would it not have been better to wait for the farm out deal and then put out a blockbuster presentation in which they could set out a clear path to start up. In any event I would like to see an updated presentation setting out a timeline of events to start up of production, what they expect to do with the cash they have received and are due to receive, and how they expect to return value to shareholders. In addition, Benitz should be working overtime on doing the rounds to promote the company and try and get some institutional investors on board.
These are my thoughts for what they are worth.
I read that article and I agree. It is a logical argument.
It would be interesting to know the mechanics of how equity will be transferred from the UK market to market makers in the US in order that trading can commence on the NYSE.
Does anyone know the process, and might these large trades be related?
Frankly I am amazed they felt the need to put out an RNS to advise on the dividend. Do they really think investors are that thick?
PC01
"Most people have blanked you but I for one enjoy the comedy"
Same here.
If his holding is as claimed he only needs to buy a few more and he can call for a special meeting.
The dividend payment will be calculated on holdings prior to open on the 30th November when they went ex-dividend.
Senseman
I noticed the longer than usual shut down time particularly compared to last year. The data indicates a period of almost three weeks and it begs the question of was it just routine maintenance of have they done some additional work for example on a gas solution; export or re-injection. Of course Prax are not going to say anything but the data reporting will tell us eventually if they have.
Laserdisc
Are you still watching all shipping as well as the offloads?
the latest field production data reported to the nsta is:
august: oil 2.59mb/d water 3.31md/d
september: oil 7.18mb/d water 7.56md/d
october: oil 7.16mb/d water 8.83md/d
for those unaware there was a scheduled maintenance shutdown in august which explains the reduced production for that month. also worth noting is the modest increase in production post shutdown and the reduced water cut. my *** packet calculations suggest the next offload around the 26th december and we are looking comfortable for revenue from three offloads for the next dcu payment.
Hazbeen
They went ex dividend today. Any one buying today does not get the dividend which is why the price dropped this morning.
The sp has now recovered about half the dividend.
If a takeover approach were to be made what do you think would be offered and is that likely to be sufficient for the Bod to recommend acceptance? My view is that no one is going to offer anything like enough to satisfy the Bod, and is anyone going to chance a hostile bid? Doubtful.
If these sales today are traders who bought on the farm out news it’s hard to see what profits they’ve made given the opening price on Thursday.
I think there was an expectation the sp would go higher and since it has not traders have decided to exit. Hopefully when they have all moved on buyers who realise the true potential will come back in.
Dickupham
I suggest Trans World Airways plus a cuppa.
Thunder2040
I agree. The rise today is disappointing when you compare it to the move on the NEO FO news. That was from 153p to 332p and yet todays news which provides JOG with a full carry and 20% retention only produced a peak of 265p. I was expecting it to go back over 300p at least. Clearly the potential has not been fully appreciated by “the market” and we will have to wait. Hopefully Simon Thompson's article in the IC will enlighten a few.
Upon completion of the Serica Farm-out, JOG will have a 20% interest in the GBA licences and a full carry on the capital expenditure required to bring the Buchan field into production.
Absolutely Fabulous.
Zeus have updated their coverage following Friday’s RNS.
Conclusion: The NEO farm out deal has marked a material step forward for JOG on its GBA project. This underpins the company at a 12.5% fully carried interest in the field development costs of Buchan, with further upside on a second deal that could ultimately see JOG with a fully carried interest of 20-25%. Moreover, the introduction of NEO as a partner, with its technical and funding capabilities, is a strong endorsement of the project, and should help underpin a second farm out for JOG, in our view. The company is well-funded from its end 2022 £6.6m cash holding, full carry through FEED under the NEO deal, and additional cash milestone payments totalling US$23.9m. Going forward, we expect further detail of the FPSO development plan, a potential second farm out, regulatory submission of the full Buchan development plan in H1 2024 and then FID in H2 2024. This represents a string of catalysts to help unwind the discount to our valuation – we value the shares at our total risked NAV of 702p. Given the strong position JOG is in post the NEO farm out deal, the catalysts from progressing this and the Buchan development into 2024, and the discount to our NAV, we have a positive outlook for the shares.
Note that the share valuation remains unchanged at 702p. Apart from the usual risks attached to any ongoing oil development the one big factor will be what proportion JOG can retain if they succeed in achieving another farm out, but what remains unclear to me is whether the analysts valuations are based on the expectation of another farm out or the minimum 12.5% retention with NEO taking the remaining 37.5% if JOG cannot get a deal. Either way there should be upside but the question is how much difference will it make. As to milestones I guess FID will be significant but NEO look pretty committed to this project and whilst FID cannot be taken for granted it looks highly likely. FID will only happen when the remaining farm out option has been determined but when it does you would expect the market to take note. As far as regulatory approvals JOG seems to have a good relationship with the NSTA and the project appears to tick all the right boxes so I don’t anticipate any significant problems.