Member Info for Dibs61

Its a proper research day today. Another excellent article on Visitect:

hxxps://jcm.asm.org/content/57/2/e01277-18

This is the reports conclusion. Makes GOOD reading:

CD4 measurement has an important role to play in assessing baseline risk of disease progression, particularly for individuals presenting with advanced disease, decisions regarding starting and stopping prophylaxis for opportunistic infections, and prioritization decisions regarding ART initiation in settings where universal treatment is not yet possible. Consistently good performance of the Visitect CD4 on venous blood with different operators, in combination with the fact that no electricity and no instrument is required for conducting the test, shows the potential of this device for decentralization of CD4 testing services in the most resource-constrained settings. Further research is needed to make any conclusions regarding the appropriateness of using finger-prick for CD4 testing. The considerable financial and clinical benefits associated with obtaining a test result at the point of care may outweigh the risks associated with a false-negative result.

More research. This time an assessment of South African health workers views on Visitect. Not completely perfect but overall a thumbs up for a scale up.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/331105991_Qualitative_assessment_of_South_African_healthcare_worker_perspectives_on_an_instrument-free_rapid_CD4_test

If you hunt around on researchgate there are other articles on assessment of Visitect performance.

Remember it is the ONLY product of its kind on the market.

So we are fourth trading day after the placing and apart from the delayed 350k theres been virtually no selling. So, maybe the market has taken the fundraising favourably. MMs initial reaction was to mark the SP straight down to the placing price but its since recovered and we are now just 0.35p short of the pre-placing price and I can get a quote of 11.4p to sell stock now.

Lets hope so up. That would be a huge boost.

Check out ADVFN this morning.

BTW We are being bid up I can get 11.25p to sell this morning. Looks like a shortage of stock again?

No it’s definitely just for the Advanced Test. They have a different route to market for each test. The 350 will be largely B2B and the 200 Advanced will be NGO’s, charities etc hence the ERPD/WHO route (where the large scale orders all go through). The 350 goes down a different route and gets country registration eg.Nigeria situation, awaiting approval

ERPD process concluded successfully! Huge commercial milestone achieved. Cannot be underestimated. WHO prequalification already underway.

This basically means the Visitect CD4 advanced test can now be procured by organisations with access to the Global Fund or UNITAID funds. This means NGO’s. And once this starts it’s going to get bigger and bigger.

Happy to take stock for more than the quoted bid. Maybe theres an order or two in the background.

A possible sale of part of the business or complete takeover. A number of hugely bigger Diagnostics players would surely be interested in Visitect CD4 for example if, as we hope, it gains commercial traction. This product is unique in the marketplace. And it’s what initially attracted me to ODX years ago. And we are practically there now. It’s almost in the bag. Finally.

Don’t get me wrong I don’t want them to flog it but if there was an offer it would have to surely reflect the projected value which is way above the market valuation of the entire company. A conservative estimate is at least three times the current MC.

Hi up - going to assume you’re sober now ;) so I agree it would be good to get the results out the way. That said they’ve already given us a heads up on the main numbers so we know there will be no surprises - welcome or unwelcome. So the actual results themselves should have no SP impact. The thing that *might* affect SP is the further comments they made about ‘commercial discussions’ and ‘post BS events’. This is what is intriguing me.

https://www.theglobalfund.org/media/8575/psm_2019-07-erpd-eoi_invitation_en.pdf?u=636979292510000000

The Global Fund is inviting expressions of interest to manufacturers of POC CD4 tests. They want it bad. And we are ahead of the game.

It looks to me as though Omega have got ERPD approval for the Visitect CD4 350 Test. I’ve been doing some research and I found this document on the Global Fund website which is dated 29th August.

https://www.theglobalfund.org/media/5878/psm_productshiv-who_list_en.pdf

If you go to page 16 you’ll find the relevant details. It’s been placed on Risk Category 2 - which is good - and means the product can be procured by NGO’s on a time limited basis until 13th December in advance of WHO prerequisite in Q1 next year.

This is great news and a significant commercial milestone achieved. I would be expecting the company to announce to the market imminently since the document is dated 29th August - unless I’ve misunderstood something!

I think early Monday we’ll see the SP nudge up again. L2 moving in the final hour yesterday - MM’s were edging bid and offer higher, only one left on 11.7

Then, we will surely see the ERPD approval sometime next week which will be a major commercial milestone for the company. That will surely take us back to the mid-teens.

Yes I have. There does seem to be a coherent strategy moving forward now. All business segments look set for growth.

Stock is tightly held. 70% not in public hands. Significant stakeholders.

We just need the positive neesflow to continue.

Could the rising SP be signalling an expectation of good news? I believe so. EPRD approval could be any day now and this imho would be the final derisking of Visitect CD4 prior to scaling up of commercialisation. This is because, as a rule, a product which achieves ERPD approval would rarely not obtain to ultimate WHO prerequisite.

I truly believe the tide is finally turning here and I’ve now built up a decent holding with average of 10.8 (been buying in past few weeks) so already break even. Lots more to come though.

Wow what a spanking set of numbers. The gravy train continues on its journey.....year after year, st shareholders expense

No announcements on trading/contracts or anything meaningful from an investing perspective for over FIVE months! Extraordinary.

N2M - I concur with your hypothesis. Was encouraged to hear there are other schemes moving through the pipeline. The big issue is the rather lumpy nature of the revenue flow and when that can have a negative effect, as in recent months. But we look to be in for a good financial year here and at some point the market will pick up on it. That’s my thinking anyway.

Interesting. Sneller adding to his stake again?

Happy with recent announcements. £580k of orders in the past week is not bad.

Regarding the ERPD (which is a crucial milestone for larger scale orders) the company expected to submit the dossier by end April. My research tells me that the ‘time limited outcome’ for this process should take no longer than four months. On that basis we should know the outcome by the end of this month or very soon after.

Hopefully the tide is turning.

Back in this.morning. A bit of a punt but valued at just £2.75m now which seems a bit undervalued to me given the pipeline.

My main concern on the short term funding has been allayed. I’ve researched and ASH have no history of placings, at least over the past few years. I am guessing that rather than take (permanent) dilution they will extract short term lending in form of a loan or overdraft from the bank.

I expect a bounce once the funding uncertainty is lifted and the schemes close.