Member Info for Dibs61

Just been watching some Warren Buffett stuff for inspiration. Two things are paramount. Extensive research to establish your intended investment has been undervalued (and overlooked)by the market which he describes as ‘market inefficiency.
Secondly and just as importantly - a long term investment strategy.

I am 100% sure that with an 11p average here (was under 11 but I’ve added recently) I hold a stock which is fundamentally undervalued by the market. It has a solid and sound investor base. Richard Sneller, I am convinced, is adopting a Buffet style investment approach here and is anticipating a substantial return as am I (albeit somewhat smaller lol)

And, in that positive message to end the year, a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to all my fellow investors in Omega Diagnostics.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ptit2zXoi-Y

Very simple to perform the test. A market winner.

All trades go to NT no stock

Check out ADVFN thread. Someone has suggested Ron Zwanziger is interested in the business

If you google him he has an impressive record in the Diagnostics industry

https://www.scotsman.com/business/omega-diagnostics-unveils-bumper-hiv-test-order-as-it-trims-half-year-losses-1-5055374

MM’s are trying to keep a lid on this. Not many shares in free float. Over 70% not in public hands.

However I think Market is slowly waking up to developments. There aren’t many AIM companies like this with realistic genuine growth prospects going forward. Most are pie in the sky. This is not. It has a unique product with no direct competitor. But not a one trick pony. Three distinct business areas.

DYOR

More posts than trades here! If the market had a shred of this BB’s enthusiasm we’d be laughing

If there were any lingering doubt about the market demand for Omegas Visitect CD4 Advanced Test it gets a special mention (a whole paragraph actually) in the Clinton Health Access Initiative HIV Report in Sept 2019!

One product that may improve rates of AHD identification is the Visitect CD4 Advanced Disease test from Omega Diagnostics. This is a semi-quantitative device-free assay that can detect if a patient’s CD4 levels are below 200 cells/µL (WHO threshold for AHD). In mid-September, the Global Fund Expert Review Panel for Diagnostics (ERPD) announced that the product will be eligible for procurement following a review of the procurement request and the issue of a no-objection letter from the Global Fund.xxxi Funds from both UN bodies and the Global Fund may be used to procure this product. The product has also been submitted for WHO prequalification. Médecins sans Frontières (MSF) is currently conducting field evaluations to assess both
product performance and usability

http://clintonhealthaccess.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/2019-HIV-Market-Report.pdf

Médecins Sans Frontières issued a report on 1.12.2019 about a new HIV model of care. MSF are currently evaluating Visitect CD4 Advanced Test out in the field concurrent to the WHO prerequisite process. Here is the link:

https://www.msf.org/aids-death-toll-stagnates-due-lack-community-level-testing

Some highly relevant and significant comments that relate to ODX are for example:

'A new report by Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) presents a dashboard of the status of 15 countries in terms of policies, implementation and funding to address AIDS.
The report shows that governments are slow to adopt WHO guidelines on the disease and recommended rapid tests are almost never available at the community level.
Early detection of the disease saves lives.'

I wonder who could help there?

Also this...

'The WHO guidelines recommend the roll-out of easy-to-use rapid tests to assess the status of people’s immune system (the CD4 cell count), and to diagnose the most common and deadly opportunistic infections, such as tuberculosis (TB-Lam urine test) and cryptococcal meningitis (CrAg test). These tests can deliver results in a matter of hours and, combined with proximity to patients, the days saved can make the difference between life and death for many.

Yet, MSF found that the rapid tests are almost never available at the community level, despite the fact that early detection could save many lives.

“There is no way the world will reach the target of less than 500,000 deaths from AIDS in 2020 without decisive action on dealing with retention to care, treatment interruptions and resulting mortality,” says Dr Gilles Van Cutsem, MSF Senior HIV Adviser. “In the past, the very sick patients we saw were those who did not know they had HIV. Today we see more and more people who have been treated before, but stopped taking their medication and fell seriously ill, and people whose treatment stopped working.”

More than two-thirds of patients with advanced HIV that are admitted to the MSF-supported hospital in Nsanje (Malawi) arrived already very ill and have been on antiretroviral (ARV) treatment before. At MSF’s Kinshasa hospital (DRC) this figure is at 71%. Among these, more than one in four people will die because the disease was too advanced when they reached the hospital. These deaths could have been prevented."

Again, ODX Visitect CD4 Advance Test can fill a vital gap here.

It is absolutely plain, the evidence is all there that there is a significant market demand by NGO's for Visitect CD4 Advance Test. I believe we could see a scale up of pent up demand quicker than we believe on the basis of the above certainly before the end of next year.

A gaze into the future. I've seen this as a potential take over target in the past from a larger diagnostics player. I see that as a prospect again. If we look at Finncaps prediction of potential annual demand of c.6m tests - that equals around £25m pa revenue at around a 60% margin for Visitect CD4 tests alone - not even including Food Intolerance and Allergy potential. The company has a MC of just £18m - woefully undervalued based on these prospects.

CD4 is no longer a pipedream the project is reaching commercialisation after years of development. Its a unique product - nothing else like it on the market - no competitor. Its a potential cash cow with NGO's being a reliable consistent buyer for possibly years to come.

IMHO on the basis of Visitect CD4 alone its future projected valuation on a VERY conservative basis is 3 x Annual Sales = £75m. Thats a share price of 50p. I accept its not worth that yet but I am talking about projections 3/5 years ahead.

I'm not even bothering to factor in the value of Food Intolerance but, if you did, we are looking at nearer a £100m valuation. I'd be interested in other peoples thoughts. This may seem like ramping at first glance but I believe the figures are realistic.

I believe the Visitect CD4 project has been almost entirely derisked. Its already received EPRD approval and it seems to me highly unlikely that having achieved that status it will not get WHO Prerequisite and once it does we are truly over the line and off to the races. And its only around 6 months away.

No stock available. Supply as tight as a mouses arse.

Think this might pop soon.

Just a reminder this is the update Finncap gave after trading update in Sept. important to point out further positive progress has been made since then.

Omega Diagnostics provided a trading update for the six months to 30 September, which indicates revenue growth from continuing operations of 5%, driven by a 6% increase in Food Intolerance. Confirmation that ODX has submitted its evaluation report for VISITECT CD4 350 test to the Nigerian Ministry of Health and that it has had discussions with NGOs for the Advanced Disease test bode well for first VISITECT sales in FY 2020, estimated to be c.£0.5m (120k tests). Whilst the current valuation is largely underpinned by the value of Food Intolerance (c.£3.5m EBITDA in FY 2020), the upside is provided by VISITECT. We reiterate our target price of 25p, which assumes c.0.5m VISITECT tests in 2021 (c.£2.0m), implying significant additional upside given the potential addressable market for c.6m tests.

This is the classic WSG story. Pen and ink never quite reaches paper. Oh it’s close, so so close but somehow it just doesn’t happen. Still in but the doubts grow by the day.

Despite a couple of weighty sells we finish up over 5% and on days high. I think this might be poised for a break out. Next year is going to be a breakthrough year for ODX and it should be all upward growth from there.

For every seller there has to be a buyer and I was wondering who took Oryx’s offload the other day.

The £75k Buy surely had to be another institution. Or Sneller adding again?

Feeks - cheers that made me chuckle on a dreary morning when I’m feeling s*it!

Well, that’s a new one, a ‘Trading Update’ which doesn’t mention trading.... to which I assume....there isn’t any? One things for sure though, they need cash. Not immediately but when the cash from the recent business sale have been burnt. Will they be able to go to the market for funding or will they manage to get another loan?

The future remains very uncertain indeed.

Maybe 75p in 2021 ;)

I think 75p for next year might be a tad ambitious:) but 25-30p is definitely possible given increased revenue growth and a move back into profitability. That would still represent one to two bagger from here which, in this market, would be pretty good.

unv - agreed. Maybe we be tipped as one of the stocks of 2020? But even if we’re not I do believe 2020 has big potential to be THE transformative year for ODX.

Currently EV to Sales ratio of just 2 (roughly speaking) using one valuation metric. That’s low so if sales took off you could expect that to triple or perhaps more which would have a corresponding big increase in market capitalisation.

Feeling bullish today!

Long time since I’ve filtered anyone. There are appropriate places to talk about climate change but I don’t think this BB is and certainly not stuffed with reams and reams of irrelevant stuff when we are here to discuss WSG so goodbye brokenhungry.