It would be wise....11 Nov 2020 19:03
To focus on your company rather than hoping for the possibility of the failure of a vaccine for one reason or another. Be that in terms of logistical issues, speed of roll out etc etc
Imo it would be wise to assume that vaccine roll out will happen in the timescales suggested because governments will move heaven and earth to make sure it does. And prepare for more vaccines to materialise and maybe quite soon.
With the gift of hindsight we can now see more clearly what happened in the past few months. It was staring at us in plain sight. Why, we wondered, WHY aren’t they talking about this wonder therapeutic? Why do they only ever talk about vaccines? And the answer was because all their focus, be that governments, big Pharma, research labs WAS on vaccines and not therapeutics. Their approach was that they wanted to tell people they can stop people getting the virus NOT to tell them oh well if you get it we can make you better!
Honestly where does this leave SNG? I have to say not in anywhere near as good a place as back on the heady day of 20th July. I don’t think the opportunity is completely extinguished but I do think it is substantially reduced. Assuming SNG001 passes P3 in, say, end Q1/early Q2 next year then it’s likely vaccines will by that stage being rolled out to larger numbers of people. Possibly millions of doses by then. The main virus season of winter will be drawing to a close and case numbers could, or should, be dropping. SNG001 will be entering a market where, yes, there will still be people infected who need treatment. But can we say it will be anywhere near the numbers we anticipated just a few short months ago? I’ll leave you to decide but I for one do not any longer see this as a £50 stock, not even a £10 stock. SNG still has a £200m MC. Forget about the £87m cash from the placing. That’s already effectively budgeted and spent. So if we are to take the current valuation how much sales do we need to warrant it? Sales to price ratio of, say 7 (which I think is generous for the s3 tor) would require £28m of sales next year. OK you might say that’s not a lot but the other point is how long could the sales be sustained for with a vaccine longer term?
Look I think there is something left potentially but it might now be best to downsize your expectations quite significantly.