Member Info for DC2007

And there are more shorters because...?

I think the market is pricing in for guidance to be reduced again and results to land on the low side. Last few updates were profit warnings so it's no surprise sentiment is low.

Asos is a bigger business, probably a bit more robust, and doesn't have the corporate governance taint that Boo has.

That doesn't even follow from the question T4G. Hedge funds don't issue RNS notices. And the law leaves companies plenty of room to manoeuvre.

'They dont, they have exactly the same information we have.'

What's your evidence for this claim?

Hello the 70s it's looking like. Perhaps the shorts know something of the upcoming results. They're right more often than not I find.

Yeah SCB/peoplepower was full of it back when it was £4 – said it would certainly be £20 in just a few years and still the opportunity of a lifetime at £4! More like the opportunity for the credulous to lose 80% of their investment in two years.

Hard to follow you t4g. Not remotely sure what you want 'evidence' for now — I think you just like the word.

Ebitda is can be very prettified as you should know. Cash earnings are what really count and the weaker these become, the more companies talk in editda and adjusted this-or-that. Just as Boo have done; asos a bit too in the last results tbf.

They're putting as much gloss as they can on the dire outlook for most businesses over the next 1/2 years. If you think that doomsterish, then you've the same cluelessness and denial about the global sociopolitical macroeconomic situation that you have, apparently, for most things.

Have never put much weight in ebitda. Net profit and cashflow much more meaningful and I could see them not breaking even. Market would hammer them for that.

Your stuck in fantasy mode t4g and, because you're so far under water here, can only see things as you want to see 'em.

Real vulnerable mindset for an investor to sink into.

Can't find reasons for optimism here like L5 and others.

I think the sideways movement will end with an inflection point sharply downwards — full update with the interims in two weeks the catalyst, and it craters on the day.

Look out for the 50s, then it could be a v. Interesting prospect.

A joke about 100p, right?

Erm ASOS's margins have just vanished completely. Check out their latest report. ASOS and BOO in the same business, so I *predict* the same to happen to BOO. It's hardly complicated. To be totally pedantic, it's reasoning rather than evidence, since it's in support of a prediction, rather than an attempt to justify some fact or other.

Wrong T4G. And wrong in so many ways. But since you like your facts, here's one: value of Boo is £1.17bn. Simple as that. Not £2bn, not £5bn or however many squillions some analyst or poster here thinks it might be worth at some fuzzy future point. It's worth £1.17bn. Not more, not less, but exactly that. Any figure quoted which differs is inherently speculation.

Margins
I don't know to which ludicrous margin claims you refer. Perhaps you ought to include evidence for your own statements, or they look rather baseless too. Boo's margin has been contracting over the past year to eighteen months. ASOS is a better run, more reputable business and in their most recent report, margins had turned negative - they made a loss. Read across from that and Boo, exposed to similar cost pressures and operating in the same market, is likely to be similarly affected.

I asked below what posters believed would be reasonable values for Boo's terminal earnings and margins. That's a reasonable, tangible question, and no one responded. Instead, respondents have chosen to be insulting, perhaps because they can't or won't answer a more tangible and meaningful question. And with delightful irony, the worst are those who are loudest about only 'dealing with facts and evidence.'

So Grimrip44, what you've just said implies that you also think the entire market — because it too currently does not value Boo anywhere near even £2bn — is 'deluded'? You somehow know better than the whole stock exchange? Doesn't seem likely.

No agenda here. Your statement is simply extraordinary, but your evidence is zilch.

Grimrip44

Shein's an outlier, an anomaly. Their operation is very questionable and sufficiently opaque that the valuation is suspect; with such uncertainty on valuation grounds, anchoring the valuation of anything else to Shein only compounds the precariousness of the exercise.

What do you see as BOO's terminal annual earnings & margin at maturity? And is that what you base a future valuation on?

Ten-bagger from here? That's about £9 and values the equity at about £12bn. Unrealistic expectations I'd say. Their margins are gonna have disappeared, just like ASOS's, at the next update. That means earnings nearer zero, hence the ~90p share price.

Margin erosion is being caused by factors beyond the industry's control and will take 12-24mths to correct, even if the war is shortly resolved. And that's a very big 'if'. Upshot is that a couple of years in fashion are a near eternity and all sorts could emerge in the meantime. Days of established 400p's value are probably gone for as good as indefinitely, on the current form.

ASOS results are underwhelming and it is a stronger better managed company than BOO; current market sentiment for ASOS is better too. If BOO had posted results like that, it would have been a 10-20% down day. BOO are probably going to post results like that in May so I think the 70s are back on the cards by then.

...'it now represents a key holding in the financial security planning of my family's future'.

Concentrating so much into Poly isn't at all consistent with your stated objective and makes that future much more insecure. What you're doing is taking a huge, irresponsible, gamble. How will you explain if most or all of the capital is lost?

Liquidity of private and public companies not really comparable. When liquidity of a plc becomes problematic, the share price will only head one way. Once a share is impossible to trade, think Evraz, how can it be worth anything? Investors that don't write it off to zero when this happens are in denial and wishful thinking.

Richie got a point. If they can't appoint an approved auditor ASAP — and that's going to be very tough — it's curtains for their admission on the LSE. Once liquidity is gone, shares that are trapped with holders are as good as worthless.

Appreciate your reply minjin.

Can't agree with 'If you want to preserve capital than you should consider putting it money into Boohoo'. Wind the clock back to just last autumn and anyone who took this line would already be sitting on a ~50% loss.

What are the things about Boo that make it a quality business in your eyes?