RE: Europe up premarket with global tensions in focus08 Aug 2022 13:11
No, mostly those are points I've responded to; some multiple times. You've become importunate because you can't handle my answers and they prickle at your denial complex.
Much of what you listed involves judgement and/or opinion. Such things are not amenable to corroboration in the same way as is a statement of fact, as you surely know.
You, however, make statements purportedly of fact, then can't substantiate them when asked for a source. You claimed Boo predicted a recession in early 2022. It should be very straightforward to say where and when – that statements of fact can be checked is a very reasonable expectation.
Boo's core market is ferociously competitive but there's not much compelling students and the young to buy BOO stuff vs. other options.
They've lost whatever was the spark of a few years ago that resulted in outstanding growth. That's already in reverse and the dire UK situation is only just getting going.
Whichever poster said 2023 will be worse than 22 has it right. BoE finally stated yesterday what's been obvious to many for the past year. If Boo's management are as sleepy, they mightn't realise until too late that the task now is simply to survive the next couple of years – forget profit until 2024 at the earliest.
I expect Boo to make another loss this year (FY23) with revenues that are reduced YoY in real terms. Some of this is caused by the company's own errors; probably much is the overall state and decline of the economy. The current outlook for the UK (and most developed economies) is dire and the full effects of problems apparent now (and these are by no means improving yet) will take 12+ months to filter through to businesses and consumers. We're heading for recession of uncertain depth and duration in a high inflation environment with no effective tools to ameliorate it.
I'd expect Boo to have got further into the revolver when they next report and be cashflow negative again. It's hitting at a bad time for them and combines with market sentiment that has been shaky for much of the past couple of years. I expect the equity to devalue again and land as low as the 40s, conceivably as soon as by the end of this September.
The only games that happened today were the Commonwealth Games t4g.
Two alternative perspectives from your original post:
- volumes of 'real' (as you put it) trades are low because there's little demand from buyers. Demand is subdued because of the great deal of uncertainty in the economy coupled with some company specific concerns about Boo. That fits the observations and is a far simpler explanation than yours.
- if the market was really being rigged as clearly as you say, it would be counterproductive because someone who realised the rig could then profit from it. Compare a fair lottery/roulette wheel/deck of cards etc. to the crooked version of each. The fair version is less of a liability to those running it: as soon as someone discovered a ruse, they could exploit it ruthlessly. (Though they'd need to keep the insight to themselves and not tell anyone.)
I'd not go so far as to say markets are always fair and transparent; of course they aren't. But chicanery is far more subtle and better concealed than what could be inferred from a daily UT and minor fluctuations in short interest.
It's noise; it's patterns in the clouds. Humans who don't know to actively guard against the tendency are very good at seeing what they want, or even need, to see.
Wanting things to recover doesn't make a difference. Look and interest rates vs. inflation. What has to happen next to get those things to reconcile? So obvious to any with a timescale longer than days or weeks; most won't be lucky with their risky plays.
Markets had begun to reprice for this but have then had a relief rally the past few weeks. Naive retail/small PIs are sucked in last to prop up the losses of big players.