Member Info for Davstock

Hi NewK, Where did you see that the update is at the COB on the 15th?

Thanks

The most important thing here that everyone should understand is that Ophir is a different company than it was in the past. No longer is it a cash burning explorer. For the first time it has true assets that will constantly bring in cash. They will be debt free in 12 months or so. The share should start to reflect this as soon the next couple of results start to emerge.
There won't be many oil companies around the world that will bring in such a substantial cash flow and not have any debt.

Totally agree!
They are trying to ruffle up the shareholders. The starting price in Oct was 58p and probably would have gone to 70p and more if Fortuna could have been agreed.

There is very little chance of Medco succeeding in getting this at 50p. A lot of the Institutions will hold a higher average than that given a lot of them have been on board for years!

The interesting thing now with Medco going rogue with the statement and not letting Ophir know and then Ophir countering that with their statement without Medco''s approval has changed the conversations they can now have with each other!

I think they can approach large share holders and make an offer for they're holdings? They must have a game plan.

To be offered 58 then 53.5 and 2 weeks later drop it to 48.5 for no reason is ridiculous. The biggest point everyone should be aware of is that Medco announced the possible offer today before Ophir even knew about the latest offer. That tells me that this has gone hostile slightly. It looks like Medco has got fed up with Ophir not biting so they have taken matters into their own hands and dropped the Dec 20th price down to 48.5. Medco knew on the 20th that Fortuna was a goner and oil has recovered so the they are at it. Don't be fooled with this very low starting offer.
Hopefully this has made the BOD angry and ready for a fight!!!

I'm sure they could get a lot more by selling off the assets in bits!

I really don't what the offer will be but what I can say is only the ones that will be happy are the ones who have bought in lately!
The institutions have been averaging down for the last year or so. I would imaging that most hold lower prices than you would expect?

Looking at the $1.3 Billion for 20% of Tanzania, I know at present it has no value but it will at some point, so lets say $200 mil (6th of the original sale) / $250 Mil for Santos and $350 mil for all other assets, that would put a 80p-ish offer?
Faroe went for $819 Mil today. Don't know a lot about about them but they don't look any more attractive than Ophir?

Any where between 45-65 would be a low offer. Its true value to my annoyance is 70-85. The loss of Fortuna was bigger than we all would like to admit! If that had been successful we wouldn't be talking about a takeover!

The trouble with the position we are in now if a low offer comes in, we are in the hands of the institutional holders and if they hold at low average they will jump on it! so hopefully more than 50% hold at a decent level?

Fortuna was never fully priced in, The market has not trusted whats been coming out of the BOD for a while now, that's why we have dropped from over a £1 in 2 years just when oil recovered.

The trading update is due next week, If there is good news on production the BoD should try and get this out before any offer comes in, if they are allowed?
The trouble when small oil company's get themselves into a takeover situation there can be a lot of self interest by the board members and they tend to forget about the owners (us).

This is terrible news, any potential buyer would want an quality asset like Fortuna! The way Alan has been running Ophir over the last 6 months has me baffled? For a company to have so much free cash and high quality assets to end in this position is only down to poor management from Nick right through to Alan. I bought into this company around 5 years ago because of what it had and its potential but look where we are now hoping to get a 60p a share buyout!!!

Alan and the board need to be strong and only recommend a true value offer. Not sure what is the true value but santos assets along warrants a 45p offer, add on the rest of the assets then 85p or more?
We've got a lot going on in Jan. Fortuna / Trading update / Takerover, So I think that's why the price is stuck. The Market needs some concrete news!!!

I expected far better than this?

If an offer is based on the value of the assets then I would expect at least triple the present share price, but that's not what will happen I'm Afraid!

Munchbox I think your right about better investments out there! If I could get £1+ I would bite there hand off but I can't see that happening?
What makes this worse for me is I was about to average down with a sizeable stake but decided a few weeks back to dive into Premier instead, Timing has never been my thing!!!

This is a nightmare for me, My share price is too high I fear!!!