Member Info for davidblack

Wonder how much Pantheon acreage they are looking at?

And you wouldn’t get near it so buy a very big pair of binoculars and a stand to enjoy the view from 500m away.

Apologies George it’s just PB seems to be doing a good job of winding up Scott which I believe was previously your franchise.

All well here I think other than it will take as long as “Required” and Pantheon can do little to speed up the process if they want the good deal they have been talking about. I am guessing first week in December if the incoming partner wants to drill this winter? Also no one factors in the lawyers who will take a week to write it up and a week for signing off even though the decision has been agreed. But it’s a 30 plus year deal so maybe a bit of time is not unexpected?

Must be getting old.
Happy to see 4,000 bpd though as that’s $3.6m a month and would pay for four deep wells a year plus everything else!

At $7.2m per month of surplus cashflow KO’s options become much wider!

8k? I thought they were going for 4k a month? Or am I completely confused?

Agreed Tintin the MJF certainly add substance and underpins the price.

But one thing I think has been lost on the MJF story, which took an age to arrive, is just how big that wall of cash will become.

At $30, net of all costs, last month that was $1.2m ish. This month on a likely 1,500 bpd it rises to $1.35m.

But once all the new wells are in place and they should come in regularly over the next 15 months the production target is 4,000 bpd that’s $3.6m per month of cashflow to get busy with? So maybe another two deeps twice a year? Or maybe drilling at 3A? Or maybe chase up some of the other shallow production targets?

Prior to the price upgrade Caspian were gasping along on $600k a month of revenues and Caspian still managed to drill A8 and all the over deep work. So just what will they deliver with six times that cashflow?

For most people the MJF was a “Box Ticked” event when the reality is it’s impact is only now starting to have an impact.

Interesting times ahead, just like Brexit!

Grand children’s grand kids would be the smart move.

Caspian have simply changed their approach to releasing RNS which in the past looked like a desperate attempt to maintain the price with “Too Early” news that wasn’t followed up by the successes it suggested.

Their new approach seems to be reporting only after things have actually happened.

As someone said A5 has been worked on for 5 years so expectations of progress on 4 wells plus work on the MJF all happening in a few weeks looks a little optimistic.

Fingers crossed for a few bits of good news between now and Christmas in 8 weeks time at which point they will be on winter break!

It would appear quite a few people do want to be out of this over the weekend based on the trades so far.

Sounds like a nice plan.
Where do we all sign up for it?

Almost certainly the case that when a JV eventually comes it will be neither Premier, Conoco or Oil Search given they look like “Likely Candidates.”

And Otto would probably be very supportive too! Production from Talitha from the Dalton Highway would give them an unexpected boost in cashflow.

In the end there are too many possibilities to work out what’s going to happen.

My money is now on Conoco after they sold $1.4bn of Aussie assets last week with the funds to be reinvested back in the US.

Well that might explain Bob Rosenthal’s trip to London.

Also it’s likely that Pantheon rather than 88 Energy have the useful seismic on much of the Ice Wine project where it abuts the Pantheon ground.

But a JV with Pantheon is likely to require $100m outlay which seems higher than PMO’s wallet until those farm outs are completed.

Rabito the $40-$50m is just pipeline capex not the whole thing.

I am guessing that if it needs 50 wells at $20m ish then add in some fixed costs the total will be $1bn.

PMO with a market cap of £600m are too small to JV with Pantheon given all their other commitments. Not sure they are even big enough for 88. They will probably look to add value and then bring in further partners which will be slow.

Just my thoughts.

The biggest risk on Charlie 1 is the infrastructure required to be in position before any oil can be pumped.

At Alkaid post the test it’s assumed the oil is there to be pumped, at Charlie 1 that is not yet proven but pretty likely based on the old BP well.

So what’s the difference? Well the Charlie will need between $750m and $1250m of pipeline capex that needs to be planned, financed and risked. Alkaid assuming It flies as expected will need $40 to $50m of Capex post trial runs using trucks.

So the Premier 88 asset may be just as good but it comes with a big capex hurdle. Alkaid on the other hand Capex wise is pocket change for the oil business.

Feels like Caspian moved on to the front foot late last week and now moved back to the back front.

Grand Old Duke of York routine.

Just hope Air Miles Andy is not in on this one although he does have a few Kazakh friends.

A little wobble this lunch time on the price.

Clearly nerves are getting frayed.

As I understand it the last time that GB allowed “Independent experts” to look at their data re bank finance the day after their exclusivity period ended those experts staked all the ground to GB’s southern border as 88 Energy.

That might explain part of the reluctance to make it easy for others to “Acquire” their IP in a questionable manner.

That concern over data security is also clearly seen as they are making all the potential JV partners travel to Houston to see the data with no one getting electronic access. That no doubt has added weeks to the JV timeline.

Do you think people are shorting this in any volume?

It would be nice if the New Year kicked off with Index buying but whether that happens on the first of Jan or first of April next year in the end is of no consequence once one of the Deeps starts flowing and with the steady increase on the MJF there is an inevitability about the rerating happening in the next six months.