Member Info for davidblack

Thanks MO

Re the seismic are your distances length wise based on just the area they have done seismic on or is it clearly visible that at that distance the “Prospective Area” ends.

Or put more simply does that length have room to grow with more seismic?

Lastly clearly this target area is a very clear shape so is it inline or parallel to any known oil discoveries in the immediate area that could act as an analogue?

Many thanks

DB

Sounds like a much bigger “Prospective Area” than the 58sqkm they suggested at the AGM.

Would $8.3m get down to 5,300m?

Given there are four work in progress deep wells and cashflow is currently constrained getting ready for a new Deep well would suggest they are very confident of getting flowing oil from A5, A6, 801 or A8.

Looks like we may start to see the wood from the trees here shortly.

Yep Vendor thinks he will make money on the shares but more importantly KO is speeding up the cash flows. Looks like he wants to change the game over the next 16 months.

50p by 31st December 2020?

Having up to 10% dilution capability is standard for virtually all Aim shares.

Not normally used but very handy if you want to do a cheap small deal without requiring formal shareholder approval at a cost of say £10k and a three week delay. And given KO already has the votes having to hold an EGM to gain formal approval would be particularly pointless.

KO now looks to be in a hurry to build a midsized player. Quite a change of pace. Acquisitions on the horizon?

And at this stage Willow and Pikka have general approval from the State Government and the blessing of the Federal government but just wait to see how quickly they will get local approval and environmental sign off. Add on years!

Pantheon’s brownfield ground off the Dalton Highway at Alkaid and Talitha will suddenly start to appear very attractive to oilmen who want to move fast. Their only issue will be no one currently fully believes that the oil has been sitting there for 30 years and was never exploited. But that’s what happens when majors run he game. Technically efficient but zero chance of “Thinking outside the box.”

It’s going to get interesting.

Keep the jokes coming George!

Yep they said $45 net but that really has context when you think about the fracked oil in the lower 48 states where the net backs are less than $5 if WTI is $50 and they can get that. Sadly most are now getting a lighter cut called WTI Light which trades a couple of bucks lower.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-10-17/permian-drillers-are-said-to-sell-new-lighter-crude-oil-grade

All adds up to there being no great issues about arranging back finance, of course that’s after Pantheon and it’s JV partner prove up sufficient oil.

Hope they just do a JV on Alkaid Phecda for now based on three drills of $20m plus $20m of cash. Once the Alkaid is proved Talitha will become serious prize and achieve a premium JV.

But first a JV!

My guess is many of those remote locations are going to have to add years to their development timescales to meet both the Corp of Engineers engineering project standards and environmental impact requirements. That will mean the DCF on some of those projects is a lot less attractive than it might originally appear.

Pantheon’s by the pipeline brown field development locations at Alkaid, Phecda and Talitha are likely to be much quicker and less costly to put into production.

On the personnel requirements Alkaid production crews will be able to live with their families in Deadhorse not two weeks on two weeks off fly in economics.

Thanks MO it’s nice to hear that there is substance there and a nice audit trail to boot! Feels like MJF is going to be the seed funding for something much bigger but probably on a five year plus timescale.

It’s difficult to understate just how transformative the MJF will be at the new pricing post 2020.

In July at 1,300 bpd worth $15 net equals $7m annually

Targeted production December 2020 at 4,000 bpd at $30 net equals $43 annually

Come 2020 Caspian is going to be a very different beast!

Pantheon at 616m shares in issue and price of 18.5p equals £114m or $137m market cap.

So if every single assets other than Alkaid/Phecda is worth zero and with nothing in for cash that means that the 112.5m barrels of oil at Alkaid/Phecda equates to $1.22 a barrel.

Sounds rather cheap? Especially given it’s 200m to the oil hungry Trans Alaska Pipeline?

Rabito I think you are certainly not too aggressive with that valuation.

No it’s huge, the deal is actually one well to follow up on the BP discovery on their western A area for 60% with a second 50% option of a second well. That well can be either on their central B area or more likely the eastern area C which straddles the Alaskan pipeline and Dalton road.

The likely choice being C which is south of Talitha. Based on 88 waiting until Pantheon drills their Talitha well.

So if the 88 BP well goes well all of a sudden the Pantheon acreage looks to be much more mainstream.

Feels like this RNS is being used as the starting gun the post MJF repricing era.
Caspian over the next 12 months is about to become a real emerging oil company.

Sorry wrong thread!

On Pantheon post a JV 30p seems very conservative.

Yep if one of the deep wells flows there is a strong possibility. If two flow then almost certainly in my opinion.

But until then it’s cheap.

Agreed George being able to self fund its exploration and development over time will be the key as to whether Pantheon chooses to either “Fatten ups its assets” and is able to sell for a nice profit or goes for a “Tullow” which went from 12p to £15 over a decade. It did that from the mid nineties by building cashflows, assets and a few smart acquisitions.

As to the answer of what Pantheon hope to do it’s not yet clear but they have the raw material to turn this into a huge win. Acquiring Alaska just at the point where fracked gas is imploding is a huge opportunity. As to whether they do it who knows but the signs are, for the first time in years, looking good.

https://twitter.com/aeberman12

Yep join the dots here and it’s 50p and undervalued!

But first those dots need joining.

My rather boring project management suggested approach is sort out the MJF and get the cashflow to crack open those deeps. A8 first possibly or A5 but just focus on one at a time and crack the nuts in sequence. And if there is a log of oil to flow the pipeline issue or the Korean refinery will come to Caspian, especially the Koreans who would be screwed if Caspian moved their oil production to a pipeline. At which point Tim Field no doubt would come into his own.

But for now a bit of progress on A8 or A5 and a rocket under the MJF infill and workovers is the medicine this stock needs.