Member Info for davidblack

The oddity of this stock is that the fair value could move up logarithmically if it comes good.

So for now 30p would be a nice target but if the Company got a few runs on the board that target becomes 150p. If it comes seriously good then 750p becomes a possibility.

But as to where the actual number lands the jury is out. Getting a JV to kick off that process and move it from 17p to 30p would be a nice start.

Hi CC

Just sitting and suffering like everyone else!

Terrible idea to issue shares.

Caspian are sticking to their plan of developing this using internal cashflows.

At this point they have a small issue of having to repay old trader loans at $19 and once that’s sorted they can then forward sell at $35.

It’s a simple issue of now they can get double for their oil they just have to tidy up those loans along the way.

What’s not to like about doubling the income?

Have not sold and am probably at my max holding unless we see something special actually occur like a Deep flowing, but not just promises.

Happy to wait but irritated at being mislead yet again. This time in particular by the AGM comments that they were drilling on to the Devonian at 100m a week, which turned out to be untrue.

Odd day today, feels like one institution is a steady buyer on or near the bid but hey have been joined by an institutional seller playing much the same game. So a bit dull until those two guys sort each other out.

That 2.4m trade was both a buy and a sell. If it had been taken by the MMs the shares would have dropped or risen sharply.

So we have sellers, most likely from the placing but 2.4m have gone from their hands to a quiet buyer. The market should nicely tighten on that and all we need is some decent news and 20p plus will be upon us.

Has that casing failed? We have now waited 8 weeks while they take advice from experts. Sounds like not a success.

And the same argument from Oilprice.com

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Will-Shale-Rise-From-The-Dead.html

Yes FK looks to now be Clive’s back Chanel.

On the website update the set up will be a content management system (CMS) is sitting behind the website. To make changes these are uploaded to that CMS and then normally tested before being published to the outside world.

The update accidentally published looks like a draft which was being tested to make sure it fits on the page, lines up nicely, spacings etc. So it was not an accident in terms of content just that it was shown to the general public.

The upshot is we now have a good idea of what choices they might make but it’s not for certain. But it does look like the Devonian is going to have to wait.

The Nomad should have taken action as I think this was the third compliance breach this week. Clive really isn’t being careful with this stuff!

“international” pricing is made up at circa 70% actual international oil price and 30% local price, then take off the Opex costs and you get $30 net income per barrel.

Jester the 1,300 bpd needs to fund the MJF work at $1.2m per well over two months, repay those advances made by oil traders re the MJF and pay for general expenses given that KO has not made any further loans since the AGM when his advances were $4m and were confirmed this week as still $4m, hence no new loans.

So they actually can’t test A8 as they are waiting for cashflows. It will be sorted in a few months but for now they are running on vapours.

The painful bit in this is the repayment of the oil trader loans, which if they were just two months, still runs to around $1m of oil to be delivered for which the money has already been received and spent.

Come November the worst will be over. Although sooner if KO opens his wallet again!

A8 is currently paused because they have run out of money to do anything else except the MJF infill drilling which will be self funded.

Current revenues at 1,300 bpd at $15 net of Opex costs which is $585k per month.

Given we know KO’s loan is the same $4m as at the AGM there has been now funds to do any work at all if the cost was more than trivial.

Anyway Deeps are off the menu for a few months that’s all and the MJF is going to be turned into a cash cow of circa 4,000 bpd at $30 which is $3.6m a month. But it will take 18 months and in the meantime those trader oil loans are being paid back to further hit the current cash situation.

But in three months the Company will be in better shape and ready to actually do things rather than “Carver Promises.”

Turns out the drill never turned at all since the AGM.

So either the cement work didn’t work or the authorities did not want the company to drill deeper at this point.

Hey how a 2,000 bpd flowing well will just have to do!

The idea an RNS would come on Monday was always a bit odd. The protocol is the day of the presentation that the Company should release a broad RNS to insure no one is given materially better information than the general public.

All part of their new approach of keeping the shareholders informed now that news is going to be coming fairly regularly.

Probably why it’s such a shock after so many years of opaque messaging.

Just a thought Vision is now being seen as a sub par operator in Texas with the suggestion that Bobby Gray was somewhat old school re new technologies and methods.

Who knows if that is fair? But here is the rub, it was principally Bobby Gray who made the discoveries in Texas as you can’t have it both ways.

Any clue as to what it is about?

MO what are you hoping to see development wise in the next 6 months?

Also what is your “Sensible hope” for the share price in that 6 months.

Regards
DB

Many thanks, I was getting very curious looking at the Caspian slide 18 here:

HTTPS://www.caspiansunrise.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Caspian-presentation-Feb-2018-290118.pdf