Member Info for davidblack

So if Wood became one of many partners are they aiming for a “Intel Inside” kind of partnership model?

If you are spreadsheet minded I think there is form of analysis from there that explains in numbers what the change has been. Plus adds a lot of upside.

Previously there was the same technology in place but pre DP fixing the legacy finances, a couple of new contracts, streamlining of the sales focus, plus a few more adjustments then I would put the “Hope Discount” at 95% plus.

So if you think the hope value market cap then was £300m pre DP, that translated into £15m?

Sadly that then got a wacked further by an additional discount as EQT was simply a cash burner via its P&L activities. The classic R&D company that came to market too early.

So that £15m became £5m-£10m post that second discount and the stock was officially a basket case!

Where EQT is today is after 18 months of sorting out the crap, winning the new contracts, finance now in place.

So following that I would humbly suggest that £300m hope value is say £1bn?

But more importantly that 95% hope discount is now much less. And given the company is very modestly cashflow positive there is now no P&L discount for those previous losses.

So if that £1bn hope value is fair? (But happily put in your own figures) then you end up with the current £180m cap sitting on a discount is less than the 95% of last year, but still 82%.

So once a bit more confidence comes in and without any additional good news then at say 66.66% discount the market cap should be £333m or 4.8p.

And that’s why I haven’t sold a single share!

I am sure PB’s was looking for a quiet Holiday Period anyway with hopefully the full Chinook fireworks turning up a week before that Proactive Presentation.

Doing so he then has time to get his new broker, Cannacord to talk to the institutional investors which they brought in and keep them warm for his next placing at £3?

TXP are playing in a bigger league now and if PB wants a multi billion dollar exit then that starts with talking to institutional investors about those test results, assuming they are good! As we want a solid investor base to keep at bay any cheap offers.

Fingers crossed especially as I bought a few more in Canada on the bid this afternoon, just a tidy up.

Many thanks for all the wisdom offered over the year from those wise enough to understand the complexities of this story. You know who you are.

Take care all and hopefully a healthier 2021 to look forward to.

The equipment was apparently on the road between the two drill sites on the 22nd or 23rd according to a grumpy local who was unhappy with the congestion and road damage.

So that 10 day estimate is probably more like a week and you wonder if they didn’t start testing until after Christmas?

Can’t imagine too many employees were desperate to be watch Ling the pressure gauges on Christmas Day?

So I pencilling in a 26th start to the testing but that’s just my guess.

Contracting has had terrible margins for years with all the profits made in “Alterations” which is why it gets litigious and bad tempered.

Anyway Wood like others is looking for avenues where their skills can be monetised with decent margins.

EQT absolutely fit the bill with a patent protected solution and sufficient complexity to block easy entry to others.

So 16%-18% likely EQT trading margins or Wood main contracting 1%-2% profit margins?

It’s a difficult choice! Or maybe not?

I wonder if the project is modular?

Forestry waste now and a second local refuse at a later date?

Plus being able to blend between the too might be helpful for maximum optimisation?

Clipping out some sellers to feed US buying at higher prices this afternoon?

2% now traded today.

Getting ready to pop again assuming there maybe some US buying?

Yesterday UK trades were over 350m shares or greater than 5%.

Today so far trades are over 90m or 1.25% plus.

There is clearly huge background buying of this stock from happy retail departing with their 2X, 3X or more profits, and good luck to them chasing the next star.

But at some point when the cheap sellers are gone this will suddenly be 5p or more.

At what point will 8p start looking like a screaming bargain? Probably not as long as those sellers imagine.

Especially if Senior Palumbo chips in a good RNS or two or maybe five!

Google just use there US shares software and make no effort to clean the data feed which gets contaminated at the end of day.

It used to be called Garbage in Garbage out, hell it still is.

Hargreaves Langdon for their quotes is really excellent, just don’t use the dealing service if you own more than £20k of shares as their custodian fees are a rip off.

Actually a proper thump! From 2.38 bid to 2.01 is an impressive pullback.

But I still think it will move back up as the day closes?

Feels like the stock is working through another band of happy sellers before it gaps higher, but probably not today.

Unless there is an Institution really accumulating aggressively?

Better to grind out the soft UK sellers now. That was what was missing in Germany yesterday, as they had little stock in loose hands.

Clearly too many mince pies here to move too much too quickly between Christmas and New Year.

But it’s getting there!

Feels like Germany was on to something yesterday but may take us a while to catch up?

Any bid before Royston is drilled means the government will stir the pot on terms.

Maybe that’s one of the reasons Mr Baay agreed to change the deal and “Help” Heritage out?

Turns out it was a very nice insurance policy against any cheap bids.

To keep that protection once the drill tests are released it’s likely he will be out aggressively pushing the stock higher to deter predators?

It’s going to take a case of the stuff to remove that imagery from my head!

Has Mr Palumbo rushed out and bought a bottle of Liebfraumilch to go with his evening meal?

I am in real shock at today’s move in Germany and just wonder how much will transfer to London 80% or just 8%, I have no grasp of what to expect other than my usual “Go fir half and knock 15% off” approach. And if that was to be then it’s still 0.5p! That was the whole price 8 weeks ago!

No benefit if your feeding the units with local waste and try getting a permit to import refuse. That might be tricky but actually a really good business in truth except for the optics.

Pity the shorts.

But not too much!