Member Info for davidblack

A slightly different kind of valuation question.

Whatever the value of TXP today it makes sense to see that number as lower than it would have been if the following were known:

Firstly Cascadura 1 fully tested?

Secondly Chinook test results available

Thirdly Cascadura 2 known in respect to the new deeper intermedia zone.

As those three issues are likely to be substantially resolved in the next 6 weeks?

How much percentage uplift are people expecting?

I am not looking for “fair value” just what percentage change people are looking for?

And more importantly votes in a country where politics is very “Tribal” really matters.

Ok it turns out since Brexit we are exactly the same? But it’s likely we always were but previously with more grace and less anger.

But it is still the case that the first love of a politician is re-election and the best way of achieving that is to appear to be creating high value jobs which suggests competency.

This gas really matters to all parties.

From this mornings Q&A it’s clear that the price of the gas moves anyway with the calorific value which fluctuates in part with the amount of liquids retained by the gas after separation. So it’s likely the price could be tweaked for other issues?

Somehow I think there is a bigger game being played here between TXP and the oil ministry plus it’s various satellite companies. Normally there would be some penalties so if there aren’t there is a reason TXP haven’t insisted. I don’t think it cuts both ways as PB was suggesting either, a bigger pipe is just NGC’s bet on maximising their revenues at the end of the day.

Curious.

The Ginger comment was mine and is wrong.
BP are testing their pipelines apparently according to PB in that first interview this month.

It does but don’t bet on them writing any cheques. Most likely TXP will finance them and take the funds back from the revenues. It will be easier and quicker that way as they are probably slow payers anyway.

Sounds like new bigger testing kit if BP are the current user and I am guessing it’s on their Ginger find. So we might actually get some useful information.

https://www.bp.com/en_tt/trinidad-and-tobago/home/news/press-releases/ginger-discovery.html

A potential 3tcf oily gas target on the top side. That’s 500m barrels equivalent!

Same target rock package as Exxon’s discovery Liza a 100,000 barrels a day field but onshore so profitability much higher if there was a discovery.

That rock package is where a string of discoveries have been made in the Guyana Suriname offshore concessions. Trinidad is at the upper end of the belt but onshore cuts the costs by 90%. Assuming there is anything there of course?

Another discovery today:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Total-Apache-Make-Yet-Another-Oil-Discovery-Offshore-Suriname.amp.html

So after 6.40 ish?

On that fund raise discount ,I have pencilled in the cost as being C$3.

But having that cash in their hands strengthened their position significantly with NGC to the tune of say an extra 5c or 2%?

So how long to recover that C$3m or USD$2.35m?

Well after allowing for 12.5% royalty and 20% to Heritage, the whole C$3 amount is recovered after just $170m of gas sales.

So yes a great deal for Miton but also for TXP.

Many thanks Dana and I will set up a watch list for those stocks.

Like you I bought this week, 8k for my wife at 164.4p which didn’t look to clever 30 minutes later or for the 36 hours after that. Says he with a small smile on my face at 168p bid.

So with your 150p plus 30p as it were the current price are you still pencilling in Chinook for a further £3 or have you trimmed that back?

Bought a few more for the wife at 164.4p so happy with the drop but would have been happier if I got in 2p lower! Not the money but the principle of being “Right” but too trigger happy irritates!

More than happy this morning as it looks set to go subject to some supporting comments from PB.

£2 shouldn’t be too far away? Maybe even before the testing resuits

More interesting will be the journey than the actual end price this year and it’s likely to be a roller coasters! With plenty of opportunities to buy on the dips.

But 20p-25p three years out would be nice?

This stock moved from 0.5p to 3p in a couple of months and it’s currently settling around 2.25p, on the face of it last week but will move.

The fact that the lunatics “It’s going to 10p in a month” and the de-Rampers “This will be back to the 0.45p” level are both here speaks to volatility only neither have a clue or care about the truth.

So where will it settle in the end before it’s next move? Well somewhere between 1.8p and 2.6p is my call. Therefore almost certainly wrong.

But the man who knows what’s actually happening, DP only talks when he wants to say something and doesn’t do PR. Until he decides to talk it’s all conjecture.

So one way or another we are back to waiting.

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Then your 6.5 times smarter than me! I had enough money in the account to do just that and instead bought a “Sure thing” that’s now up 8%!

Whilst that flaky TXP is up 485%.

I bought 17,000 at full ticket 57c a few months ago and the lady broker thought I was insane! Not so much today, a bunch of her clients now have it and I get lunch next time I am in Van.

So not a pessimist?
End of Q2 £4 would be very friendly!