Member Info for davidblack

But your only 21?

It apparently was a quarter day when people had to flip on to a nee quarterly contract except this time that ends on the 29th of March when all the TXP CFD’s must be closed.

Fairly sure that some of those CFD players held on till today hoping for news.

Today’s rollover if they did so would have cost 3p or more per share so not friendly with only two weeks to go.

Therefore likely source of stock but let’s see if tomorrow is a tight stock day?

Hopefully after today almost all of the IG loose stock is gone.

Clearly a lot had to be absorbed and has even if it’s taken a toll on the share price.

A nice steady rise into the testing results would be kind?

Yep sorry I got it the wrong way around

Apparently at 41 api it’s likely there will be gas in there that needs flared according to Spangle so we probably don’t even need to watch the trucks.

Excellent so plenty of time whilst Cascadura gas is being tested.

So bumper news coming after a bit of a dry RNS spell.

How long might that EWT take?

I am assuming Cascadura will be fully tested before Chinook to give time for the EWT anyway.

Just the IG quarterly settlement day which no doubt some were holding on for news ahead of. The very lady of the IG trades happens on the 29th of March so I am expecting news on the 30th? TXP’s broker owns a calendar too!

Often in Canada people put up massive blocks to persuade the traders a stock is now stuck on the upside.

The reality may well be the person who puts up those multiple blocks actually wants to buy but is happy to lose a few shares if he is collecting more on the bid side. The joys of trading without MMs and with near zero commission once you have paid an annual maximum amount!

Just an odd thought with the testing going on at Cascadura Deep and Chinook would it now make sense to test Cascadura 1 properly?

The question is predicated on NGC having the full information to “Right the gas pipe.”

Actually is it even possible to do at this stage at reasonable cost?

MJ I not sure if you deliberately chose to misread my post but my point was a simple one the company has to date not tested it’s last three discoveries, in fact they have only tested the smallest at Coho.

Couple that with their failure to set appropriate expectations and this has depressed the share price.

The consequence of this is Canadian institutions who run quasi tracker funds have held off buying as they need drill results properly tested to a NI51-101 standard. Simply a compliance requirement post Bre-X in the 1990s when a lot of them got fleeced on results that failed to meet standards.

Once those test have been completed we should then see sustained buying from those Canadian institutions.

They will later be joined by huge TSX tracker funds who now hold vast amounts of pension funds and that should result in a further big increase in price as of late shares have been coming to the U.K. from Canada and those test results will reverse that flow.

It’s worth noting that because TXP is a secondary listing on Aim it does benefit as much from U.K. quasi trackers buying.

Hopefully that makes sense?

Still not listening!

The point to the upside is there is a lot of heavy duty money in Canada happy to buy when they finally turn up with some actual hard results. Those results are expected for all Canadian hydrocarbon companies to meet the standard NI53-101 not than PB just saying “We Think it’s World class”.

Serious money investors like institutional funds expect factual answers not emotive descriptions.

At which point we can resume the 2021 journey to £5 after way too long parked up!

164.4p and $2.732 last both of which are fine but for me my Canadian friend is a typical decent buyer and at present for him he is happy to wait. Also there has been zero promotion in Canada for a couple of years which doesn’t help.

Your missing the point and as to me lightening my shares I clearly stated I haven’t.

But for people that haven’t yet “Drunk the cool aid” the delivery performance here for months has been poor at best. And that’s hard to disagree with I think?

Long term the future is bright sure but for now they actually need to start delivering that’s all.

I am hoping that once the testing issues are sorted we will have a substantial revaluation towards £2.50 ahead of Royston. On the production I am happy with Q1 next year but would prefer to see the end of flaky targets.

On my friend he is a buyer and happy to pay 10-15% more once the cloud is clear. He just doesn’t want to be stuck in “The lay-by” for weeks or months as we have enjoyed since Christmas and of course avoid any bad news.

His guess on who long it might take to right itself price wise on good news was at least two or three weeks.

Was speaking to a serious Canadian investor on Friday pitching TXP to him.

His response was interesting.

What he said was they have had one successfully executed well at Coho and he takes the production date with a pinch of salt and he then pointed out last summer when Covid was in full swing they said Q3, then Q4, then Q1 and now Q2. He is a doctor and worked on SARS so in no way someone who sees it as a non issue!

His observations on the other three drill holes were that on Cascadura and Cascadura both failed to drill their target.

Secondly at Cascadura 1 the gas was tested with the wrong equipment and on Cascadura Deep it hasn’t been tested after three months.

On Chinook he accepted it looked promising but again the testing hasn’t happened on their multiple announced timescales.

Anyway unlike most of us he isn’t “A I have already bought the T shirt believer” and for him the issues above just don’t add up to compelling buy right now.

So he is happy to wait until they have real news as he thinks TXP is not going to move immediately due to the delays so there will be a derisked opportunity.

Sadly it’s difficult to disagree! Although I remain a firm believer and did to not top slice so it’s over 40% of my portfolio!

Anyway one mans opinion but if it’s good I am sure he will be buying heavily in the $100k end of town.

FYI
If you look at slide 18 of 32
Royston location is OL-4
Steelhead location OL-2

March roll over is when Tobin?

Some here or on Advfn made the comment as to why this stock was somewhat more pedestrian now.

They described it as “Too big for the short term punters and currently too small for the trackers and core institutional buyers.”

But once it exits that quiet zone just watch it fly because when institutional money starts to pore in, it does so in size and with very little selling pressure until stocks double or treble. And lastly when they come they come as a herd.

Assuming of course the testing comes good? Which clearly the company does.

Getting Cascadura and Chinook plumbed in with half a dozen producing wells will raise the share price and keep predators at bay plus make the Trindad government a lot happier which will make life a lot easier when looking for permits.