Member Info for davidblack

Yep and the re-pricing that will happen in the next month or so seems to be on the basis that the market is currently thinking TXP “Have still to find the gas” when in truth this is now post discovery, twice. So the only missing piece of the puzzle is testing.

This feels 50% mispriced? But we will find out over the next few weeks whether that’s a fools hope or hard facts?

Also worth playing with this as we wait:-

https://www.hydracapital.ca/2020/05/11/fun-with-touchstone-numbers/

The seismic is actually going to be supplemented by older 2D and it as it were really go across the border, it’s at the surface so the at depth detail is inside a much smaller box not on the outer edges.

Also the oil concession neighbours don’t own the surface rights so there is no issue. Also it’s forest reserve re surface use so there are no farmers either.

But unlikely this week?

This thread seems to capture the spirit!

As individual under 0.5% shorts are no longer notifiable and people often run multiple funds most of the shorting action is now hidden. Disclosure should be from 1 share short!

HTTPS://shorttracker.co.uk/company/IE00BH3XCL94/

Yep a period that of consolidation would not go amiss.

Hopefully a short attack will arrive.
That will provide stock for the background buyers and we should then have distressed shorters having to buy back as it grinds upwards.

Tesla and Amazon know the play well, so my guess is DP will have read the “How To” play book for that piece of entertainment. Saying nothing for long periods and then aggressive promotion then quiet.

Amazon are the masters of the strategy which has done them proudly for nearly twenty years, post the dot com crash.

Anybody see any newspaper tips?

Relates to the older near surface oil production where they are doing a licence extension in terms of years just as Trinity (BHC now) did a while back.

Actually make that a £250m raise!

Reg much of the upside rests on the teams corporate finance skills. If DP say we’re to raise £100m at 40p then suddenly £1 becomes much easier to achieve.

So I certainly would you being “Wrong” because 50p is too little!

It’s 14p per billion market cap so Reg Varney if your right on your 50p will you let me know where to send the case of champagne for next New Year’s Eve.

Hell anywhere south of the Scottish border and I will hand deliver it! In my new eco friendly Ferrari of course!

Check slide 7

https://www.touchstoneexploration.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/December-2020-Corporate-Presentation-1.pdf

The road from Royston goes directly to the Mora Drip Valve station on the gas pipeline, you just couldn’t ask for better logistics.

But first a drill hole and find some gas is the usual approach.

The Pool River gas substation for Cascadura is also fantastically close by.

Txp really got logistically very very lucky.

The big issue here is the possible need for unitisation of the two acreages.

So if Royston goes across the border there may have to be extended negotiations that slow down that areas development.

Also any well drilled on this side of the line at this point increases the value of their acreage. If your going to drill a well anyway now is the time to cut deals.

And if you think Royston looks big? Then you are going to love the Kraken deeper target below it which may cover three times the area and be more than three times bigger. Not on this target well of course but that target is the real monster although the chance of success pre Royston is low as it’s just a seismic target for now.

So maybe playing nice with the neighbours is ok as Royston is very close to those pipelines and an easy development, that is assuming the gas or oil is there of course and that’s not something to be assumed.

It may hold the necessary volume in the right place to reopen that currently close LNG train which would be a significant win for Trinidad and Heritage.

Touchstone could quietly stand at the edge of the picture in the reopening ceremony pictures!

It’s that sort of thing that gets you preferred status as a JV partner and the government could be very helpful in many ways from acreage, to licence obligation flexibility or even blocking cheap bids.

And TXP would also be banking cash like crazy.

Sincerely hope your right and I am wrong!

9p please

Heritage’s last carried well is Royston after that they need to pay 20% but based on their finances they are not flush with cash. So perhaps TXP will lend them the funds, adjust for a modest interest charge so it’s an arms length transaction and get the loan back from ongoing Heritage income streams from Coho etc. It’s a fairly typical approach and it stops TXP from being slowed down by a cash poor partner.

But often there are nice things that the Heritages of this world can do for the TXP’s! So I doubt anyone will be unhappy.

At $5m a pop wouldn’t they prefer to stick an extra hole or two in Chinook and or Cascadura as that gas, with the pipeline in place, can then be quickly monetised and will help pay for that second drill?

Heritage don’t have any spare cash so it’s likely they would want drilling to be self financing as I understand? But also why wouldn’t TXP?