Member Info for davidblack

He raised the target so the broker could then put out a note saying how clever they were.

It’s an in-house marketing trick and allows him to then say they were buyers before the test results.

$4 sounds great but how much is the net revenue after full pipelines have applied their charges? I believe that’s a significant issue for Western Gas producers.

Also where else are financiers going to get guaranteed forward pricing? Certainly not on any Alberta gas assets.

Plus 30% of the revenues will flex upwards with the liquids for a nice bonus.

£5 a share with a fully diluted of 225m is only a market cap of £1.125bn or C$2bn.

Don’t be surprised if the Canadians are expecting more with this being taken out at twice that, just on the deal size sweet spot in Toronto.

Of course the assets need to be there but that C$4-C$5bn cap is apparently the hot zone.

Chip In Kraken too as the 3x upside of Royston apparently.

And maybe just maybe there might be more Kraken’s lying in wait if that one comes good?

http://www.searchanddiscovery.com/documents/2014/30354ritson/ndx_ritson.pdf

And this is worth a read as to that long held belief there might be a giant at depth:

http://www.searchanddiscovery.com/documents/2014/30354ritson/ndx_ritson.pdf

And now self funded.

Not sure TXP are being completely honest on the regional nature of the Tubidite landscape in Trindad and especially as to what they “Understand” Re the gas laden Herrera.

Why would they be? Especially if they were looking to do a JV with another exploration licence holder who is at default on their obligations. With the Ministry “Encouraging” the defaulting licence holder on the JV so that serious exploration actually occurs.

Frankly the idea might well be at the request of the ministry who don’t want to strip licences off people but do want progress on that land?

And who has the funds, the infrastructure, the willing and the synergies other than TXP.

So possible corporate activity ahead of Royston results? Reasonably likely given PB has twice mentioned the idea.

Let’s see if that’s just Saturday morning dreaming and scheming? But it would make sense given PB’s repeated statements.

Should that offshore well fail to deliver a JV with TXP at a very modest price for TXP could well be on the cards?

The interesting disclosure is not the salaries but the 2005 appointed of DP to an investment company which was subsequently wound up.

It’s an AIM standard disclosure requirement so he obviously forgot about that one? Which is easily done given all the others and multiple jurisdictions.

Or more likely there is a lawyer preparing background due diligence on all the directors as part of something else.

So I “Smell” due diligence by the Eqtec’s lawyers ahead of disclosures to the soon to be financiers of either Billingham, Shannon or Deeside.

The logic being something within the U.K. and Ireland, where we have similar discourse laws.

If your financing a £300m plant banks really do check the directors for skeletons in the cupboards. Their not all we take money from anyone Deutsche Bank!

Possibly over thinking this but it feels very positive! But possibly overthinking it none the less.

How about 500m mcf of gas and 100m of liquids anyone?

Steelhead a couple of miles south is an interesting second well choice.

Post those tests it will be interesting as to how big a pipe they actually use.

The other big issue is NGC is operationally bust as the government has absorbed its cash via the electricity generating companies who have been allowed to extend their debts endlessly.

They simply need the revenue that the TXP contract will deliver as do Heritage. So there will be plenty of management there to push the project along.

Now if that gas was heading to those electricity generation companies it might take years to get those pipes in the ground!

Avoids social racketeering by the landowners who everywhere make life difficult not just in Trinidad.

As the NGC is “The government” that temptation will be mitigated, to some degree.

A bunch of Canadians with a big cheque book in a hurry to lay a major pipeline would have been a licence to have fun on the island.

Did the minister say that or was it the journalist who took his notes? Txp would not be that easy to grasp without the education that comes from these bulletin boards.

Great time for the TXP stock to take a breather and consolidate in the middle of a global “gambling on imaginary assets” melt down. Didn’t we do that back in spring 2001? The worthless assets faded and everyone else made money on proper companies?

So back down on planet earth TXP have a wall of natural gas to go into those shiny new pipelines. The guess is this one might appreciate?

I am going to think long and hard about it once the tests fit Cascadura and Chinook are in and pre Royston.

At the moment the current price is missing that data which apparently relates to 80%~90% of what would be the assets.

Now as to whether that information moves the stock upwards who knows?

But yet it does feel that TXP is currently surrounded in a sea of positive but unqualified fog in respect to the core asset value.

Agreed, my problem is not with reasonable targets but that those successive targets which I thought were “Reasonable” each time seem to get blown out of the water with every new turn of the story.

What I am trying to do at the moment is work out is just what’s fair now?

Given Cascadura was only half tested, Cascadura Deep never got there because they discovered a new “Cascadura Deeper but not actually the Deep one.”

Chinook another potentially huge discovery but as yet unpriced properly as untested and its value reference would have been Cascadura which as we know isn’t priced!

But I get the feeling that in the next 6 weeks a lot of those unknowns will clear and TXP might go up 10%? But if it doubled or more? I doubt anyone here would be surprised.

All “Great fun” but hard on the blood pressure!

Lastly the fixation, and why?

Well what was once 7% of my portfolio is now a good bit more! And some! And I doubt that I am alone there.

So if the legacy and Coho pay the bills? And is in at zero with all these new discoveries.

If Cascadura and Chinook post testing are 1tcf and
Royston 1tcf?

Then at say $1 per Mcf and fully diluted 225m shares:

Cascadura and Chinook £3.26 fair value?

Royston maybe £3.26 in addition to get to £6.52?

And then there is Kracken?

1tcf, 2tcf or 3tcf? Or barren rock?

A path to a £12 fair value looks to be on the horizon for those of us with rose tinted glasses!