Member Info for davidblack

There are no pipes in the ground, there is no contract with Shell and they are talking about bypassing Shell and NGC selling it to their customers rather than Shell getting any.

So you might need a crystal ball there!

The question in the back of my mind is that in the 1960s the original well hit gas. It was in a slightly different location so we know there is gas “Around” in two locations there.

Secondly Cascadura had very high pressure so it appears that Chinook was drilled with controlling very high pressures very much in mind.

So if the above two points are on the mark? Is it likely that high pressure mud might have damaged a possible substantial gas find above that oil water zone they are now testing?

If someone who actually understands this properly could explain in simple terms, for this humble layman I would be most grateful?

But one way or another Shell don’t get an automatic right to the gas in the event of a takeover and the Trinidad Ministry of finance is hardly likely to approve a takeover that strips NGC’s other customers of their gas.

So weirdly Shell are now the least likely bidder.

PB has flagged a 5 year contract at $2.50 approximately (analyst expectations) plus or minus a wet liquid adjustments but excluding any condensate which is sold separately, less 5c for transport costs.

Actual terms are subject to an NDA.

Shell buying TXP became pointless at Christmas time when they agreed to sell all their gas to NGC.

Shell would have no interest in owning TXP if the gas was being sold to everyone on the island but themselves.

One way or another TXP’s fate is now much more Trinidad aligned than it was.

Sounds like the Shell solution is back in pole position?

OL-2 is the Steelhead target

Not energy funds but general funds often run by brokers that buy weighting in energy which is a decent slice of the Canadian exchange.

He has clearly removed a lot of overhang and there will be an number of other funds who will now take a look of which some will then buy much bigger numbers than his 4m.

Which is why he goes on BNN in the first place!

Shell are clearly hungry for gas and want to see if they can lock in more than to 10m.

Undoubtedly NGC can find a higher paying customer from there given they supply “end users” so aren’t keen to give more away than is necessary on a cheap price.

I am guessing that Coho gas is now worth a lot more to TXP than it would have been before when Shell was the only taker? Which might explain why PB is more relaxed at the prospect of losing a couple of months revenue if the end result is 20 years of higher pricing.

Check out where XM is doing field trips as part of TXP outreach.

And constantly mapping the Herrera in those locations for potential at depths Cascadura type targets possibly?

Sorry my $171k to TXP is for 10 days!

So $500k a month as per PB

Try
$2.50 -12.5% gas taxes = $2.1875
Less 5c transport = $2.1375
10m a day so 8m to TXP
So $171,000 gross revenue pre tax to TXP

Corporation tax is estimated by the company at 35% but they will have historic costs and probably some drill right offs to use against that initially.

Oh and then chip in the liquids at $25 net per barrel ish.

Assuming they get $25 net the interesting question then becomes how much of that is oil?

5% or 95%? For now let’s assume it’s 5% and it pays for the test?

No issue with the flare, that was flagged by Homebrewrus on Advfn but rather Starbucks “Big Gas Hit” for which there is no basis as yet. It could be almost nothing, bang on expectations or “My god this is huge” but we and he doesn’t know and pretending otherwise is ramping.

Or otherwise called ramping?

And the drop will have cleaned out a lot of soft holders.

Only hardcore lunatics left, a very special subscription only members group!

Electronic data collection harvester not a research, it’s an email mill fit the gullible. That’s all.

Yep Txp have work to do to fix that drop. And whilst Chinook is just “geological crap happens” the missed deadlines were self inflicted wounds.

But a few weeks ago this was a $5 nav share priced at $2.80, today post Chinook it’s a $4 share priced at $1.50. Cheaper yes and with a bigger discount but unloved.

But those discounts do close over time, they don’t last especially if you can self fund progress as TXP can.

Oh and there is a bucket load of upside and $500k of additional monthly revenue from next month on Coho plus all the bills are already paid for.

But for now the hot and frightened money have both moved on so PB needs to regroup and come back and tell the story again without getting too far ahead of the facts.

There was someone last year who lived nearby and gave updates but he got irritated as “TXP messed up” the road in front of his house, apparently. Obviously not their actual fault but the third party company who did the work for TXP were apparently unfriendly when asked to go back and fix the issue.

So possibly that chap?