Member Info for Dartron

Tory MPs have been ordered to oppose a Labour move to ban fracking to demonstrate their loyalty to Liz Truss.
Labour wants to use a vote in Parliament on Wednesday afternoon to force the introduction of a draft law to ban the extraction of shale gas. But the government has told Tory MPs they must vote against Labour, saying "we simply cannot allow this".

So its a Liz Truss popularity vote using Fracking as the proxy. Expect a ban on Fracking very soon. It was even suggested that this could trigger the vote of no confidence and general election, but the Speaker refused to be drawn on this when it was raised.

Might actually be the best thing, I think the share price here would be far more stable if Fracking were ruled out. There is plenty to cheer about here without Fracking as a distraction. I also think there is better mileage in public relations for Egdon if Fracking is a no go. Otherwise, we will just be stuck in endless legal challenges and protests. The focus should be maximizing bopd from Wressle, and hopefully Biscathorpe etc.

It was posted on Twitter today that notice of the interims will be announced this week, with them being released 2nd week of November. Also an announcement on the Gas processing no later than the interims. Going to be a tough couple weeks as a holder I think.

You wont find out on a small cap like this. Disclosures begin at 0.5% but in reality you could short a small cap with far less, which is why you wont find out. I do not think this is being shorted, there have been only 2 trades today. There just isnt the volume. TLY is performing exactly the same as many other stocks currently.

I bought in today with what is left of my IOG investment (-56% down today!).
I hold EDR, UJO and now EOG. Regards valuation, I think £12 to £15M is about right currently, especially when compared to EDR and UJO. EDR is valued at £19M today, but has some other production and a few more irons in the fire, such as 2 planning appeals - Biscathorpe imminent. Plus they have not spent their earnings from Wressel. (I am ignoring Resolution gas license, and I dont believed Fracking will happen - there is nothing in the SP for Fracking currently).

For me, the compelling upside on all of these, is that once the gas processing is sorted at wressel, oil production can significantly increase. The field has a life time of 15 years, so this really is just the beginning. Anything else that comes good for any of these stocks is just extra upside. UJO probably has the best potential upside. In time it would make sense for the 3 companies to consolidate.

I believe that there will an announcement on the gas processing at Wressel before the end of the month - according to a Tweet from Egdon. Another bullish sign is that UJO recently exercised warrants for 3% of the share capital in Egdon, im hoping this is due to the gas processing and upside I have mentioned.

Yes Serentiy has potential and im sure EOG wont want to call it day just yet, but my point is that on the current valuation you have upside just from Wressel. Not fully researched what else EOG might have (good other prospects or bad such as warrants). After the IOG haircut today my stake is quite small here, but I have significant exposure across all 3 wressel stocks.

Reading the last few RNS, the contracts that have been renewed for GP out of hours, dont sound like things that can be cut (and likely to be renewed). The other recent one, provision of NHS 111 services is already a way of saving money by discouraging visiting the NHS in person. Put in to context that that these services are already being provided by an external company, how in funding cuts are the NHS going to recruit and train, and facilitate this type of operation?

I think its more likely TLY will benefit in the scenario. Very often contractors are cheaper than permanent staff, and its probably easier to farm it all out to an efficient organisation and then make redundancies in the less efficient internal organisation. Using contractors makes it easier to obfuscate spending and muddle round with budgets. Sounds exactly how the Tories will operate.

Doubt they would have organised the presentation if they were going to put out a bad update on the same day, so I am reasoning that the update should at least be ok. Bought a few more today.

Kind of ironic to refer to Truss as a remainer when they are plotting to get rid of her!

Kwarteng thrown under the bus and another chancellor who's name I might mis-pronounce.

threw two tins of tomato soup over the painting, which is protected by glass.

Epic fail. Lol

Just Stop Oil protesters throw tomato soup over Vincent Van Gogh’s famous Sunflowers painting
https://twitter.com/MetroUK/status/1580870179730624514?s=20&t=fECmI6Ap15n2R4E1evK57Q

Finally some thing more annoying that MickeyBee.

Heres what I would do...

Your BVC shares have held their value for the last 2 months. You have actually been given a second chance! In that time, really great companies have reduced by around 20% or more in some cases. Now is the time to sell those BVC shares, and put the money in some thing that has dropped due to a pension fund selling, or general market sentiment, it would actually give you an instant 20% gain. You could even buy a dividend payer, or a company listed in a better tax regime.
Go for one that earns in dollars if possible. There are plenty of telco, cyber, defense outfits out there. BVC should just delist, it doesnt need the stock market and we dont need BVC.

I would love 40p right now as well. So many bargains around, not all in O&G. A jump of 30% in my largest holding of my pf would really set me up to go on a shopping spree, when other stocks have dropped more relative over the last 12 months IMO. In the mean time, I cant fault I3E. Being valued under 2 x cash flow the down side is fairly limited, and a safe haven in uncertain times. Interview was good IMO.

1 May 2022 the Company held unaudited cash and cash equivalents of £2.73 million (after repayment of loan to UJO)
Full year results out very soon. Should be excellent, covering the period of very high O&G prices Feb to July.
In march they did 0.9M revenue. Average O&G prices rose from that point.

The drop today is mainly market makers and traders being stopped out, fracking hopefuls reading the Times and people without calculators. Money talks, bull sh*t walks.

IMO, I think Fracking is going to be very unlikely. However, this is now a case of 'know what you own'.
If you just value Egdon on the current operations, and the near term upside of further gas processing at Wressel, you would be looking at well above 4p (21M mcap). We should get some interims this month, which will help put more of a precise value on it. We also have the possibility of planning approval at Biscathorpe though I am not assigning any value to it at the moment and am doubtful of it being allowed, due to the morris-dancer nimbyism displayed yesterday.

This country is too woke to ever do any Fracking.

Ministers are actively examining ways to evade legal, environmental and public scrutiny of new oil and gas projects including fracking, the Guardian has learned.

Since when have they cared what people think?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/04/jacob-rees-mogg-fracking-email-hse

Stocks down in general. Liquidity very low. Market makers trashing many share prices IMO. Just because the ask is 5p doesn't mean you could buy many shares at that price. Look at the volumes, its just title tattle really, mostly v small trades.

Biscathorpe planning appeal next (11th Oct). Im not optimistic myself, still think local councils will be in control, and central government not implemented anything yet. Give it a few months, that could change.

I am most interested in the Gas processing at Wressle, that should increase revenue for Egdon. From looking on Twitter it seems we can expect an update this month. Last time they said it would be done in 2022, so would hope this is near completion. That would trigger a revaluation once running.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/sep/29/liz-truss-falters-on-fracking-local-consent-question
Truss replied that it was important to understand that the government wanted to pursue fracking to produce more homegrown energy for the UK.

Agree in principle, but the supply issues could be more serious than first thought. If you watch the video interview I posted from earlier this year, he makes a point of saying that the design never changes, once approved by a customer. This is typical of defense but A-typical of consumer electronics, where if you were short a part you would just design in an alternative. So I am a little worried at what shortages are the issue,and whether this is affecting some long term business.
It is a great stock, and I think its going to transition to a growth story over the next few years, now we have a new BOD.
But the results also implied that disappointment would follow in the next 6 months, so I think there may be further weakness here. I will hold off from adding to my pension, and sadly had to dump my ISA holding. Cant afford to be trapped anywhere with my spare change. As I said before, if the BOD bought some shares it would show commitment, but sadly new CFO and CEO have bought nothing so far. I expect they will wait until visibility of revenue increasing.

The now found a fourth hole.

https://news.sky.com/story/fourth-leak-reportedly-found-on-nord-stream-pipeline-12707280

They found another hole in Ns2, in Swedish waters.

https://news.sky.com/story/fourth-leak-reportedly-found-on-nord-stream-pipeline-12707280

The share price has been dropping since the June 2021. So in the entire year you have followed this, things have got worse. The price has declined as the business has failed to perform, or generate decent earnings.

The FY results in April was what did for me. Revenue of 296M. Profit after tax for the year 1.8M. Poor.
Now out of the 1.8M, 1.4M of that profit was not attributable to shareholders. In other words the company is set up that shareholders actually only have a small slice of the profits, £400k in April. What a joke.

Lets see how its gone this HY...
Revenue 189M, Profit -1.3M. That loss is entirely attributable to the share holders. (there is a larger one mentioned for the non controlling interests, of -2.4M).

Accounts are hard to read here, due to coorporate structure and sub division of business units. Cant be bothered to see what has gone wrong in the business, but I do think the issues are purely financial and not due to the war.

Just looked at the investors chronicle write up, which says basically uk warehouse division loss making, lots of one off costs, impairment charges (Write downs of valuations), Net debt risen sharply. Recommendation is SELL as it could fall further. Its not worth buying as it performs so poor. The accounts are complicated, and I wouldn't put it past the clever money men to stitch shareholders up somehow soon.

Its a dog.

I wouldnt buy at all. The market is too brutal. I would be buying companies with historic earnings & growth and predicable earnings going forward, and leave this until the appetite is back for growth stocks and more speculative.