Member Info for Dartron

No plans to delist from London exchange as better access to Capital
I am surprised they have even hinted at needing access to capital. Not what I want to hear, although guess unlikely.

Not keen means exactly that. I have some exposure but not lots. So far, I have not heard of any problems affecting PAF, such as blackouts, water shortages, political instability. Do you have any comment on these?
These issues have been discussed on other SA miners chat boards. That's part of the issue with SA miners, you have to really dig through Google news to find out if the area you are invested in is actually ok.

I am a little wary of SLP, the decline in automotive catalytic converts concerns me. I prefer JLP, at least they are moving into copper. THS have the lowest PE I think. (dont hold either currently as not keen on south africa).

I think I will add to PAF once I am back in profit, and maybe CEY on a pullback if I am lucky. Then find a copper play who is already producing, maybe CAML.

TheT, I don't see how there is a conflict of interest when the company is privately owned - they can do what they want.
I dont think other suppliers will have much sway with either party.
Its not necessarily over the odds at 80p, if it unlocks value in both companies for Solowow - Both of us are not able to see his whole hand. I also think Cersanit want to supply 30% to Topps, where as you phrase it as a problem. The business rational in one line, is that it opens up various opportunities for an already large conglomerate. These people will know the situation in every European country regarding who's who in the ceramics world. Maybe there are other parts of this bigger picture we dont know about. I should say, I'm not expecting a fast conclusion. Shares bought in my pension, and keen on buildings materials sector anyway. I value your input, and take on board your comments. Thanks.

TheTrotsky, I feel more optimistic about this.
MSG buys Topps, you ask for what? But then go on to say that Earnings are increasing, and the company is on a good footing. Why would you not take this private? You dont have to change the structure much, you could keep it running as it is, but buy 30% stock from Cersanit - which is what they are asking for. This would give you options to penetrate the UK market as it evolves (high end / low end), and even dictate terms to other suppliers. I dont see any of this as a problem or negative outcome for Solowow. The valuation of Topps is historically low, and many UK equities are targets for overseas buyers. You seem to be looking at it, like it would get bought then ripped apart and then broken, when I say just a change of ownership and adjustment of supply chain. I think for Solowow, this offers upside to both investments. He must understand the tiles businesses well. At present the only issue Topps have with the proposal is that it is not in the interests of shareholders and doesn't quite fit their business model. Both of these are the benefits for the buyer.
Regarding the cost, if you have the money, and you think there will be a return, whats the issue with paying around 80p for the other 70%. Having checked my analyses platform the median broker consensus (of 2) is 80p. The highest is £1.00 target for 12 months. The guy has 6 billion. What else can he do with that money. His hobby seems to be buying building materials firms. Im sure its worth more to him than most other people. Maybe it enables further expansion in the low end market - possibly even accross Europe. Looking at his purchases, he has waited for valuations to come down (not bought since 2018). I really think he will have a go at this.

Apologies if I'm over simplifying things, I am not a M&A expert, or usually an investor of retailers. The deciding factor was the person, Solowow I think hes a smart cookie. I see minimal downside risk to test my thesis, and have only bought a few thousand shares. First time I have bought due to analysing that a TO or even speculation of one may occur. Happy to own Topps at 47p currently and enjoy the show.

I think the talk of being a UK competitor is just posturing, possibly to reduce speculation of a TO at this point.

Have just bought in..
In simple terms, Cersanit want to sell more tiles in the UK. It appears that this is an almost untapped market for them. They appear to manufacture and sell other ceramics such as Toilets, but keeping with Tiles..
I think one way or another, Cersanit will get their wish. They have tried a cheaper approach, by asking nicely, but this looks set to be voted down. I really cant see them opening up in competition, when it would just be cheaper and easier and quicker to buy out Topps. I did a little digging in to Cersanit, and it turns out it was taken private by serial self made investor Michal Solowow. If you read about his profile and past, this is what he does. Take things private. The guy is worth $6.2 Billion. Worth a punt in that case I think. I think UK equities are so cheap for foreign investors that it would be a good buy in any case, but if you are guy who owns a the tile factory, then this is just an add on for pocket change.

https://www.forbes.com/profile/michal-solowow/?sh=4703d3474dff

The Board expects to report its interim results for the six months ended 30 November 2022 on Wednesday 25 January 2023.

Tony, I think you have answered your own question. Despite the facts you mention, the price could not rise above 24p.
II's will sell, we don't just have PMI as a large holder. We are also at the mercy somewhat to commodity prices.
I have found various other stocks offering near 10% yield in other sectors, I mentioned Premier Miton the stock as one recently. If we look for 8% yields I can find dozens of other stocks, and 8% is about the 24p ceiling I mentioned. Most of those stocks have the same 50%+ upside due to the sell offs of recent, in fact my main play at the moment is recovery's.
I dont think I3E is that special. I have a considerable holding here, I feel it is safe, but consider it as income rather than growth. (i'm also sceptical of a buy out). I'd love to be wrong.

I think that Premier Miton continue to sell, to get below 10%, the extra selling pressure is depressing the share price.
I doubt their reasoning is related much to O&G prices. I think it is just that SP growth in the next 12 months is very unlikely here, with 24p being the ceiling. I was also wondering why the I3E has not offered a tender to II's at say 24p for 1% of the company, this would make it fair to all II's to be able to take part, and would not have wiped out the 2p dividend yield here in 24 hours.

Blueril, "the amazing returns he had provided long-term shareholders." Your posts were credible up to that point.

You missed a few other key items.
Options were granted to the new CEO:
"at a total grant value of 2% of the value of the Company on the Grant Date. The exercise price will be the average closing price of the shares on the London Stock Exchange in the 30 days prior to the Grant Date".

So throughout December they had no incentive to raise the share price, but now that pockets are full, the good news taps can be turned back on. Blueril may be watching who is buying and selling, but that isnt really important, the reasons behind it are what matters. Most astute operators will now be buying and closing shorts ect. The company included.

We also had mention of a $25M Covid contract that could drop any time referenced in the TU (after options are granted - cough cough). So I think the real market players will now be buying and that is the reason for the price increase.

I would guess today that all cheap free stock has been consumed, and 30p might be a new year entry price for the retail investor, using magazines and bulletin boards.

Would that be vox markets by any chance!
I dont think those guys trade like we might. If the holding changed they would have to issue a TR1, and also their own trading would cause even more volatility. But, I think this is the reason they sometimes also have a CFD attached to the holding.
PMI last sold down to 12% in August from memory (just shut the RNS).

I3E increased their dividend today and confirmed the payment for the next 12 months.
This caused the I3E shares to re-rate by almost 20% today.
Premier Miton hold 12% of I3E. I calculated the equity gain to be £10M from (20p to 24p).
They will also receive £243,300 per month in dividend payments from I3E.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/I3E/2023-budget-guidance-dividend-and-presentation-c4180nro5q0l5jc.html

PMI will get £243,300 per month in dividend payments from I3E.

Speaking of funds - Premier Miton hold a 12% stake in I3E. (142281125 shares). If we go from 20p to 24p, then PMI have made £10M gain today in their holding. The share price hasn't moved today for PMI, and they are due to pay out 6p in early January as a dividend, I really think its got at least 20% upside in equity growth in the next few months. Worth a look at 102p.

Don't bet the Farm Lexion.

Knights, a fast-growing legal and professional services business in the UK, will announce its half year results for the six months ended 31st October 2022, on Monday 16th January 2023 at 7am.

Off you go XPD, we wont miss you.

4 Million = 2.2% dilution.

I watched the presentation, and noticed a few high profile administrations mentioned.
Here a few links from the names mentioned. Interesting that Covid is still a factor in several of these cases. Major benefit of these (to Begbies) will be seen in H2.

https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2022/09/08/roofing-giant-avonside-goes-into-administration/

https://www.gamblinginsider.com/news/16717/metropolitan-gaming-completes-purchase-of-park-lane-club-london

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-63349681