RE: Investment Case2 Dec 2022 14:24
I am still undecided about the investment case for AMTE. I think you need a 5 year view here, and I would estimate a takeover quite likely within that time period. This is where the likes of BP should be investing, IMO.
Anyway, to reply to a few points as someone involved in the design of these battery packs, but wearing my investor hat:
I dont think the cell technology is the important differentiator here (yet), it is going to be the facilities and the capability which will matter. To see any meaningful progress we are going to need to see increasing orders and progress toward building their own factory. Most OEMs already have their own cell supply/production facilities, the money is to made in the Joe Bloggs companies who are electrifying everything from utility vehicles to sports cars. I also like that AMTE can appeal to other industry sectors such as storage - this could be a huge win for them once the government pull their finger out (though id also fancy IES for that too).
£100 per cell might be a little high Tenapenny. With a typical amount of cells in a EV battery being around 200, you can see that the 60,000 is actually 300 battery packs per year. Not to be sniffed at, but this would be one or 2 niche customers like i inferred above. However, note the contract is not a sales contract as far as I can see, it is an agreement to manufacture up to that amount. I am not finished in my research here yet, and after buying in higher, I have no choice but to hold for the moment.
I would also say, look at Ceres power, or ITE. Both of those companies were grossly over valued 12 months ago, so even if the business case does not fully stack up, it doesn't mean there wont be growth in the SP if we have another green boom.
60p is obviously the floor due to the CLN, so all to play for I think. I will be looking to get my average down, to make it easier to exit if I decide, and then watching very carefully at the finances to mitigate being stuffed by a Placing which must be a mid to high likely hood here.