The costs of development26 Sep 2022 19:51
(DTPP - Discount to previous placing, last column)
Apr 2016 - IPO @ £1.60
Mar 2018 - Placing 4.2M @ £1.34
Oct 2019 - Placing 3M @ 35p - (73.8% DTPP)
Oct 2019 - CLN £2.7M @ 40p (due to be repaid in 2024)
Apr 2021 - Placing £2M @ 22p - (37.4% DTPP)
Feb 2022 - Placing £1M @ 6p - (72% DTPP)
===========================
£13M of funding so far.
Assuming a DTPP of 50%, then we would be looking at 1.5p raise. Company will need at least £2M. They would be sensible to ask for enough to not have to come back to market in the next 12 months. Even then it wont repay the CLN due 2024.
At 1.5p / share, I make that 133M new shares. An increase of around 3x the current share count, or 75% dilution.
Assuming David Guyatt can front another £1M, he can take 50% of the subscription and keep his stake the same at 10%.
Its possible this is his opportunity to increase his stake, so he could add more of the funds in, and then the placing will be smaller. Alternatively, its possible that another company or entity adds the money for a stake in the Co. I would say a minimum of 50% dilution here, and further uncertainty over the CLN. Adding in the CLN the company needs around £4.7M of funding, which is over 2x its current mcap. Might I suggest that a management team of 7 people is a lot for a this size company, and perhaps some cost savings could be found from streamlining some of those very similar sounding roles. I think even administration is a possibility here, aiding a de-listing, debt forgivness and resurrection of the company perhaps then in private hands going forward.
I dont have all the facts, and am an amateur investor, so I could be completely wrong - just my thoughts as to what might happen.