Member Info for Dartron

Keeping a note of this one..
06-Sep-22 13:58:05 47.10 705,739 Unknown* 47.00 47.20 332.40k O

A loss before tax, net debt doubled, Dividend cancelled, Cost of sales up, Finance costs up. Yeah, reads well.

Not to mention this development: Germans largest manufacturer is now insolvent
https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1566773878055125000?s=20&t=JP-7XKRZaLsGWDs0Z3gT-A

I think it was about a year ago, the RNS warned of 50% of the costs to manufacture a toilet was energy. That was when the sp dropped to about 21p from memory. Since then the energy situation has only got worse, now being labelled a crisis, and yet these shares are up 5 pence. (or nearly 20%). Bonkers.

Saw this on Twitter:
There's approximately 780 companies listed on AIM.
There's now 602 below their 200 day moving average - generally regarded as the bull (above) bear (below) line.
AIM All share hit another low today, -34% down from its high in September 2021.
https://twitter.com/SharePickers/status/1566815066435067904?s=20&t=LHXT0cL1DL9y9P8qp4OFhA

Now is the time to buy cash generative companies in growth sectors, just saying.

Very interesting what Blackrock have been doing. They seem to have been responsible for the sell off from around 70p, throughout 2022. Utilizing a short position to profit from the drop, yet also devaluing their stake. The fact they have kept most of their holding shows the quality of the investment here. Cant see them wanting this to go much lower, since they are holding 12% of the company, in fact thinking 47p is the bottom until results. Holding some of these in my pension, expecting several 100% returns over the next 5 years, might it be £4.70 in 2024, and £10 in 2026? Results on Monday.

02-Sep-22 16:40:43 10.4166 300,000 Buy* 9.50 10.50 31.25k O

Looks to me like this company can issue a trading update any time, going by past dates. They could RNS another contract win any time too, its just one of those investments, that is going to be very volatile, whether you are short or long. Well done for predicting the price, ill give you that, though as far as I can see there hasnt been any buying at £1.10 yet, I think the ask is a little higher. Markets in general are very painful at the moment, and no one wants any of these stocks IMO. But thats the game isnt it. Buy when no one wants it. Way I see it, the company need to beat £35M this year, so if they update the market ahead of this target, I think that puts a floor under the price. I dont think it comes down to mud slinging, or things that happened years ago. Growing earnings and revenue, will forgive all sins. Yes price could go a little lower, but it could also gap up 30% one morning. There is also the chance of a big news story, like a national cyber crime, and this could suddenly be a big winner. Regards cyber crime, its a case of when, not if.

That's the puppy

02-Sep-22 14:53:02 270.00 115,605 Buy* 253.50 256.50 312.13k O

ask was about 256 at the time.

Here here SB.
Sub £300M mcap, PE less than 7. Half year earnings already announced as on track. Its time to start buying I think.
Where is the bottom? Where do other large II's see value in buying from Blackrock?
I looked back at the RNS, whilst they reduced the CFD, they have only sold down 1% equity since 28/04/2022. i.e. started on 13% and now on 12%. They are ultimately still long here, and I expect tide to turn very soon. Plenty of other II holders still here also.

Did you see this from this morning:

01-Sep-22 07:59:04 23.25 1,750,000 Unknown* 23.00 23.50 406.88k

Be a great fit for SWG, However, I am not convinced SWG have the bottle to be honest, they seem to like even smaller companies. To be fair to SWG, at least they haven't gone silly buying up everything, they actually have a steady business which can support itself from its free cash flow. Will they want to support OSI from their FCF up to £4M per year? (more than their Ebit last year). Equity buy out the only possibility if SWG.
While we are on the subject of SWG, the price has pulled back a lot recently and represents an excellent entry, in a better market they would be trading above £2 IMO.

Looking at the 2021 FY results, the company had 1.3M in March 2022 after the last raise. They seem to be getting a fair amount of revenue now, looking at 2021 the revenue was 1.4M (last TU 0.9M so far). The 2021 Admin expenses here are around £4M. The last trading update still talked of raising funds back in June. Then we had the significant contract win, which sounds like it has bought in immediate revenue.

I am wondering if OSI might be able to get by with a credit facility rather than a placing, as they must only need about £1M, of which they have visibility of revenue to secure against the loan. I think if OSI can pull off some non dilutive funding, that see's them get to cash flow positive over the next year or two, then the share price could rise rapidly.
If they must raise, I hope it is one company that takes the whole stake (likely around 30% to 50%), i.e. a potential suitor or strategic partner as it would be worded.

Regards Older's post, I see a lot in it for the management and company to be integrated into a larger group, the key thing being cross sales and integration of products. If bought, we could be bought with parent equity, chuck in a load of options for the BOD, im sure it would be a quicker less risky rout to prosperity for all of us. Also interesting that there are no major controlling share holders here, so any buy out would have to please all share holders, with around 20% made up of small institutions. As said, the best scenario is no buy out, but company grows more with little to none dilution, and next year we can dream of perhaps 10p.

I am bullish on OSI, but also realistic and the comparison with DNL is just crass to be honest. DNL had Cash and cash equivalents as at 31 December 2021: £24.36m.

Read in to that what you will. I have not looked up this company but the article says that they were not cash flow positive.
They offer rival services to Pentest, and other SWG companies without looking in to it too deeply. At least at SWG there is cashflow and it appears to be at least b/e.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/08/29/cybersecurity-start-up-chaired-former-gchq-chief-lays-10pc-staff/

Another 380k at 88p. Lets hope they go to sticky hands.

I have not noticed any traction in the small caps for cyber security. While there have been a few buy outs of larger caps, I would not say the sector is on fire. If I am missing the company's that are re-rating 5% a day, please let me know, so I can pile in ASAP. I think that is the problem here, the sector is out of favour for the smaller caps.

I dont see anything wrong with the company, all the financial metrics are going in the right direction. The recent CFO buy mitigates the risk of a raise for an acquisition. I think it is just no one is interested. This is what it felt like investing in uk gas last year by the way.

This company - while disappointing - is still forecast to do at least 50M EBITDA, with a current EV of 220M, I make that EV/EBITDA of 5, that is not bad. I doubled the EBITDA from H1 to get 50M (as mmcfd similar to H1), but in reality it will probably be more, as gas didn't come on until half way through H1, and prices now higher. Anyone agree or disagree on those numbers please? I have bought all my shares back now, I feel around 32p is a fair price here, with upside.

Anyone else having probs adding?
Yes, I have no spare cash. 25p is a good price.

NOI revised down to 200M. (Q1 update, where NOI was forecast to be 240M).
However, given the softening in prices and the rises due to inflation, and the new wells not contributing the Q, I guess is to be expected. Seems about 50% of the gas is hedged, less of the oil.
half year results will be released in September 2022.
Numerous wells, including Q1's South Simonette Lower Montney drill are currently being tied-in to newly installed production facilities and put on clean up flow. The Company will provide a production update in September, incorporating the output from these new wells.
Will this new production change the NOI forecast again?

These were under £2 a few weeks back, its done an excellent climb in that time, increasing 15% before today's big jump.
Just shows its worth buying bottoms on the right stocks. Im back in profit now, and sold a few from averaging down and being a bit heavy here.

Do you remember that 1p dividend last year. High times indeed.
Loads of cyber security stocks on AIM, whole sector will re-rate IMO. We will see consolidation, and buy outs, but not from BVC, being majority owned, foreign, having revenue from Israeli government, and not focused on any one product.
Check out SWG for Cyber security. Broker target is over 100% from current price. And being British, they get British contracts. Maybe more risky, (due to balance sheet) but OSI, getting lots of contracts from the NHS. Honestly could 10 bag from 6p, with their privileged access services. CNS another one.

For those that dont know..
Premier Miton, Liontrust, Polar Capital, -- These are asset managers. You can invest money directly with them, for various reasons, like pension, income etc. These guys are then also listed on the stock market, so ticker PMI in this case.
The asset managers take % in fee's, which is why you can also invest in their companies on the stock market, as the asset manager is also a profitable business (PMI forcast to earn 100M revenue). They invest your money for you in other investments. In this case PM have some I3E shares.

Having looked at this recently, as I bought some Liontrust shares, a lot of people have withdrawn their money from these trusts. So the assets under management (AUM) has had to decrease. As money gets withdrawn, investments must be sold. Just like any one elses account. I didn't go the fund rout, but bought some LIO shares (now down nearly 10%), but when the market rebounds these historically are fantastic earners, and I thought would balance out my AIM shenanigans.
Last year they were around £20 per share, today yours for £9. Pays about 7% div yield.
Nothing to worry about in this case, they are just balancing books, but shows the knock on effect of money leaving the markets.