Member Info for Dartron

Lucky to have got out in the 18's. Cant see any reason for the SP to rise this year.
Cant get excited about .256M per year from top secret customer.
Cutting all my non profit holdings in this market. If I miss some upside here so be it.
Good chance of buying back substantially lower IMO toward Christmas.
UK aint seen the half of it yet in terms of down turn.

Cash balance at 17 September 2022 of £0.68 million (prior to the cash receipt due from the £0.29 million contract extension announced on 17 September 2022 and noted above)
- I make that just under £1M cash after receipt of £0.29M

- Still being upfront about it.
As announced earlier in the year, the Board considers that the Company will be required to raise additional capital during the second half of 2022.

- Issue here is the operating loss, this is what will need to be covered by a fund raise:
Operating loss of £1.63 million (this is only for 6 months.)

How many more years will it take for revenue to grow, so fund raises are not necessary? I would say at least 2 years, so company needs around £6M in funding over 2 years.

In 12 months this company generates an operating loss equal to its mcap. I feel a buy out unlikely as debt and losses too high. Unfortunately they have just taken too long and too much funding to get to where they are - like dozens of other AIM companies. Bear in mind some of the older placings were at far higher prices, even up at around 50p.

It seems that the expectation here is that investors will subsidize these companies while big business gets the products and services at a discount price. If the customers were having to fund this companies growth then the contracts would all need to a magnitude higher, i.e. 256k -> 2.56M, then this company could stand alone. Clearly that is not tenable, for the customers for a variety of reasons. In the case of OSI, there are plenty of competitors, so the service has a price cap, even though the vendors will say that theirs is somewhat unique.

I would like to say - to the company - that they have made good progress this year, and the revenue is growing etc. It seems harsh on them to write the above, when they have acted far more genuinely than other companies, but at the end of the day its my money disappearing here, even though I think they are genuinely trying as a company. Decided to sell as the market is too brutal to support these types of loss making companies going forward. I exclude OSI from this next statement, but the AIM swamp really needs to be drained of these outfits, and amateur investors better informed. Market makers should be better regulated, there is no way this should have spiked to 24p over a few days. My buy in was around 6p, a small punt, but I want whats left back now for a cashflow positive company.

I think the 38p's were ninety one selling out (roughly adds up). Blackrock more obfuscated.
Its a lot of shares not to generate a TR1 for a new holder - worrying if that is the case, impact going to be similar to a placing if they are to be sold and sold.

As for today, reminds me of Jaws. Nobody wants to get in the water now. 5 trades today. Shark still at large IMO.

Thanks Pokerchips.

Blackrock last count had 11.59% equity and 1.34% CFD.
For every seller, there is a buyer. Maybe BR have switched to long, and increased stake! Looking forward to TR1.
Doesn't mean its over, but good price / odds of recovery to buy at.

2022-09-20T14:21:25.377 GBX 38 26,784,070 £10,177,946.60 Off-Book AIMX P
2022-09-20T14:22:06.723 GBX 38 6,691,020 £2,542,587.60 Off-Book AIMX P
2022-09-20T14:20:12.487 GBX 38 1,992,450 £757,131.00 Off-Book AIMX P

Adds up to 35M, around 5.4% of the company. Would expect a TR1 off the back of this.
Hopefully it includes the CFD closing, but who knows. Must be related to the recent share price.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIGBgCdSdYM&ab_channel=InvestorMeetCompany

Like the company, great presentation.

Yeah, I see the talk of takeovers at 50 x revenue on the other board. Cant see it myself.

Why would huge company buy Blackbird, if the thing blackbird does only generates a tiny revenue?

The issue is partly why does the industry place such a low value on this product. I'm still shocked the tech deal is a lousy 250k per year.

It has cost £24M in retained losses (funded by several placings) and 20 years time to get to this point, and the product is only worth 250k per customer.
- Thats the problem in a nutshell.

It might scale up a bit, but for £75M, i would be looking for around 6 times earnings, so wanting 12M per year PBT. Never going to happen in this industry, with R&D costs and constantly moving goal posts. The investor meet and company attitude, comes across very arrogant considering they haven't achieved much financially.

The top secret tech licensing deal has a minimum 5 year revenue of 1.3M. Not much financially IMO - 260k per year.
First payment falls due in December.
Looking at the order book in June 2022:
for 22-23, it currently stands at £1.1M
for 23-24 it currently stands at £0.77M
I think you can see the £0.256M for 24-25 and 25-26 from the tech licensing deal.
The revenue on the order book has since grown by 20% to 4M total, but we dont know which year the gains will be in, assume split over 22-23 and 23-24.

So we have a £75M company, with £10M cash, which will require to burn £4M of that before becoming profitable.
In the mean time is likely to generate revenues of around £2.5M per year.
Is planning to launch a creator product some time in 2023 (personally I am assuming it will be 2024).
Which will add to revenues, but how much is unknown. Content creators who do it for an income are going to want a dirt cheap product BTW, I dont see this as adding much to the business prospects, rather diluting effort and resources, for example the recent hires, who probably cancle out the tech deal with their wages.

I would expect this company to still b/e for the next couple of years. I think the tech licensing deal highlights just how low the growth prospects are for this company. The flag ship deal is 1.5M over 5 years. Lets say they get a few more of them, is it going to make much difference? It would take 3 deals just to offset the cash burn. I get the margins appear to be high, but this is ever evolving tech, and I am wondering how much costs will increase as the roll out ramps up. My initial impression here, is that if it has taken 20 years to make this product, at god knows how much R&D, then why is it being licensed so cheap? You would think this company has a edge, with all the patents, but the sales imply they must need to entice customers.

I also didnt like the attitude towards shareholders, of 'we are too big to keep you informed now'. When the reality is that this company has been subsidised by investors for 20 years. How quickly they forget the hand that feeds them. I would be very wary if they start up comms again, it can only mean they are hungry for more cash.
Also, how crass to say that the BIRD share price has been holding up well against other tech, when It has halved.

Not impressed, and while I understand that the tech is amazing, the business just isnt.
I guess on reflection, I feel this is very overpriced, and possibly a fundamentally flawed business model, if the revenues are so low, and not really covering company costs. I think that explains why it has not been bought out, simply still too expensive.

What a bizarre world we live in, where the private investor must subsidise video editing platform products for the likes of global giants, who could buy this company out of their coffee budget. Another AIM triumph all round.

63% of the company is held by institutions. All of whom are now under water. One thing I think is fairly certain is that
any take over offer would be voted against, if it did not value the company fairly.

Blackrock are not the only sellers, reading the TR1s, another fund sold some recently. Why are the directors not buying, possibly for the same reasons that PI's are now not buying, as this share is now a falling knife. Why buy now, when the price could drop another 10% today? Who ever is short selling this, has probably over done it, IMO, as there are hardly any buyers now, and believe it or not, but you need buyers to sell short.

I can understand Blackrock wanting to de-risk this somewhat, at 12% of the company they are quite exposed, if anything bad happens in Europe etc. However, I think this is a great opportunity for PI's to buy here (a modest stake) and see the upside over the next 18 months. My own thinking is that this stock will be a great recovery play once we see peace in Ukraine, and will significantly benefit from the rebuilding of the country. Like all stocks, the art of trading is to buy when no one wants it, then to sell it when its in demand. I see the company as fairly financially safe, and well behaved, so other than geographic risk, at 40p I cant see much downside, other than it could be 35p for a few days / weeks. Best to buy incrementally.

BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Ltd. 73,143,031 11.5%
Von Rettig Family 50,276,521 7.88%
Ninety One UK Ltd. 45,421,428 7.12%
M&G Investment Management Ltd. 40,753,864 6.39%
Chelverton Asset Management Ltd. 40,000,000 6.27%
BGF Investment Management Ltd. 33,557,577 5.26%
Canaccord Genuity Wealth Ltd. 32,972,287 5.17%
Janus Henderson Investors UK Ltd. 32,837,608 5.14%
Polar Capital LLP 32,221,580 5.05%
Premier Fund Managers Ltd. 24,850,846 3.89%

First of all, acknowledgement of the posters and lively discussion on the other board.
I am concerned that we have no guidance on revenue here, and the latest talk of the licensing deal doesn't give any hint of the financial scales it might bring, and frankly sounds a way off, as it was acknowledged in the video interview that they are not in charge of the time scales, bound to be 2023. Cant work out why this hasnt been bought out by the likes of Amazon, or Microsoft. Expecting it to get worse as a shareholder before it gets better. At least they have £11M cash.
SP might drift, allowing a lower TO price perhaps? Not sure I will hold, cant see any catalysts for many months here.

interim results for the six months to 30 June 2022 on Monday, 26 September 2022.

TXP presented according to their BB.

Remember that Mr Festival bought 354,500 shares on 26 May 2022 on the TSX at an average price of CA$0.435 per share.
Circa 27p at the time, circa £100k.

Ha ha, it worked out well for you yesterday over at SQZ. Hope you bring the luck our way.
I still think this is short. Look at all those algo trades, and the hiding of the real bid / ask. I think with this stock, dropping the price probably wont work, as people like Mommur will snap up the bargains, even if Dan white makes the odd post.

Looking forward to the presentation tonight. I note that last time on 5th April, the investor presentation was RNS during the trading session. Stressful perhaps if you are short.

07-Sep-22 14:30:08 47.84999 142,083 Unknown* 47.60 48.00 67.99k O

In the last update, we were told that financials and production info would be released in September. I think this is the reason for the proactive. It starts at 6pm. I cant see why he would come and talk without releasing some of this info. It looks like the larger market players agree, look at those buys. In my own opinion, this was shorted, and the drop in the afternoon, was typical of a final push, then with a large UT to finish. I got a few more sub 25p, which I am pleased about.
Hopefully I3E can talk through their financials and production, and lay to rest to some of the more negative speculation we have read here recently.

I3E are presenting tomorrow at proactive, so I wonder if we will get an RNS regarding the wells or financial results tomorrow?

I was wondering if we would see a change in the TR1, and wanted to be able to refer back to that amount.
Interesting about the options. I do think this will go on a run soon. Im planning to hold for a quite a while.
It would be nice to see a tick up before results, other side of 50p for starters.

You would think that being highly professional and disciplined, Blackrock would reduce the short significantly before results, as usually holding a large trading position is a no no going in to results.

Keeping a note of this one..
06-Sep-22 13:58:05 47.10 705,739 Unknown* 47.00 47.20 332.40k O