Member Info for Dartron

I know that, hopefully I saved a few armatures a couple of quid.
I have been discussing TPX for over 6 months with Seatank.
Lets watch the dust settle, this is going to drop until the debt is sorted, as the risk just increases until.

Looks like maqsood was wrong about his.

Seatank, your comments re bankruptcy are too optimistic. As you said the company can be broken up, so liquidators would step in if the plc was unable to take action. It is going to be hard to over come that debt issue, look at some of the discount placings recently. Also go and read the MTEC TU this morning, very similar business, but look no margin either. I sold on the spike this morning. Look at TLY, another government contractor, now likely being sued. TPX do not have it easy. I think we may be in for a wave of these companies coming unstuck, as the Tories 'blame the private sector' for their failings.

https://www.chamberlin.co.uk/investors/shareholder-information/significant-shareholders

Not updated for placing or Armstrong, which is entirely reasonable. But we should see the number of securities increase once placing shares are added. So we may see Armstrong increase before that, will check again later today / tomorrow.
Before placing: 106,156,707

Well no RNS today, good or bad. Maybe it was just a coincidence, surely the company would RNS after the drop if they knew there was a problem. Gift from the market?

Possibly from the placing? But no dates for admission of shares were given. Approx numbers could add up.

They offer growth not dividend income. They invested in I3E, doubled their money, now they want to do that again, that is their job. There are many sectors where the market is recovering, PMI took a stake in SCS (the sofa company) today.
I just looked at the chart, not bad
https://www.lse.co.uk/SharePrice.asp?shareprice=SCS&share=Scs-Group

Cheers guys, Agree GGG its not as easy as I made it sound.
Crwys11 good post. Agree.

I have a share price low of 25p on 30th Sept, and a sp high on 13th December at 63p. If you think that is 6 bags, maybe that explains why you are not concerned about any of the other numbers in my post. I think the debt restructuring will at least be difficult for them, and will certainly be on less favourable terms (interest rates Bruv init). If they cant over come this, then yes administration is the next step when the debt is called in and they cant pay it. (that is what happened at 4D pharma for example). The issue is that if there margins are so thin, its not helpful to keep winning new business, I think the adage is a busy fool.
The CFO buying 50000 shares on 5th Dec is pretty meaningless, (£25k at most) and again, if these guys were to do a placing it gives those who should have skin in the game, ample opportunity to acquire it at knock down prices.

Its fine if your new to the party, but seeing your gains disappear each day can be difficult. You are probably buying at the bottom, and if you only want dividends (10% PA) then you should do ok. If PMI continue to sell all year, and supress any rise above 21p id rather take my chances of making more than 10% else where, with a fairly safe hedge I can buy here at 21p if I do make profit elsewhere. I just don't see any short term SP growth here, and probably why those funds are selling too. Also we are entering the season of full year dividends, so this is when a monthly dividend will work against I3E. I can nip out and take 5% div, and only miss a month here. Well thats the theory anyway.

There is your TR1 (s).
PMI down another 1% and Amati down around 1.5%.
They still have plenty to sell. I sold a few as well. The drop here is just relentless. Cant see it reversing, and assume those sellers will continue to sell into any strength.

Net debt1 as at 31 December 2022 of £17.5m. Mcap £23M. Note in the trading update, no figure was provided for Ebitda, or profit. Assuming that profit is very small, then in November they had £6M cash. If not making a profit, this will be decreasing. We could estimate the cash position by going back to the debt in the interims which was £20M. So if net debt is £17M, then presume they have burn through half the cash, leaving the other £3M. (about £1M per month burn rate).

So here is the investment proposition:
23M mcap buys you a company with further £20M debt, in breach of that debt and has until 31st March to solve that problem. Meanwhile by own admission is not profitable, and running low on cash, with £3M left at best guess.

What do you think the II's and large shareholders are going to do now? They are going to have to sell before this winds up in administration, or huge dilution.

Apparently there is £68M of goodwill here and a further £29M of intangible assets. Other than that, no real assets to speak of. My guess is this goes lower. I think some II's will try and exit while they can. I dont see this coming back now. I think next bump in the road will be fatal here. Should have gone short when my nose was twitching last month.

There was a very large sell yesterday around £250k at 43p. I am hoping this is not selling on news. Could just be a fund needing to exit for unrelated / innocuous reasons. I have not topped up though, as cant trust anything in this market - which is a shame for a quality company like EKF.

I would be worried that you could buy that low. Looks like the bid is 25.01 and the ask is 25.10. This site just makes a guess based on the published bid / ask and where any trade sits above or below the midpoint. Its not looking good here, I have to say. My concern is that the company have gone quiet. Usually in these situations something would be forthcoming to try to steady the ship. Emma could have bought some shares? Or clarified things were fine in an RNS. My concern is that there is another skeleton in the closet yet to come out. I think its gone past being a small issue. The volume of selling is pretty heavy now, people way more informed than you or I look to be exiting.

The term cultural in a working environment usually means not fitting in. CEO was at odds with the rest of the board, is how I interpret. I expect CFO and CEO were given ultimatum, one jumped & one was pushed. I bought some more this morning, if nothing else to keep my average near to the exit, though I do think all the dirty laundry is out now. Could recover back to about 64p for a starter. At least here the company is profitable and will be paying dividend, and arguable has more upside than downside currently.

Seems the BatM twitter feed is quite active. Worth a follow if interested in the company. Today they are exhibiting at ISE exhibition...

Visit us at the #ISE exhibition (Booth 5A200) in Barcelona on Jan 31st-Feb 2nd, and catch a demo of The Next-Gen Retail Solution in action with #Edgility, a platform for #edgecomputing
https://eu1.hubs.ly/H02GMJw0
https://eu1.hubs.ly/H02GMHG0

I have 2 shockers of my own on the go. TLY and RBGP. Both good entry points for high risk appetites. I also have MTEC which I think is a very similar business to TPX, lets hope its managed better. I still laugh about Rigby selling those shares, due to strong institutional interest. He pumped then he dumped.

Oh dear SeaTank. That's not a good update. I dont take pleasure in others losses, but I am pleased that I am getting better at spotting these problems. I said in this thread that this is not cash generative. I quite fancied a position here, but not yet. I really do think the debt and cash will be an issue here:

"Given the updated reforecast for Q4 23, the Group is unlikely to pass its debt covenants at 31 March 2023, the next measurement date. We are actively engaged with our bankers on appropriate actions to address this event "

You really cant rule out a placing, and you really cant argue that TPX is cash generative. It has potential, but so do many things.

Dividend 1.53p, ExD 16th Feb.

Handing back as much cash as possible, shows confidence I think. Just shows you have to be careful with facts and figures on a chat board. I always consider the bear case, and fact check where possible. So far from talking with you I am now more confident about Totally as a business, even so its only a very small position here for me. If you went short last week, that was a good call. Wish I had, but SB account has no cash in it LOL.

Are you sure your mate Paul was talking about Totally? because all the figures in his text are wrong. Lol.

Its a 0.5p dividend, which will cost £974000 to disburse. Going from the interims which I pasted before, the Ebitda was £3.4M. The research note I have has the margin at around 18%. It also says how impressive the growth was as it was almost all organic:
Totally delivered 43 per cent higher pre-tax profit of £3.7mn on 12 per cent higher revenue of £127.4mn in the 12 months to 31 March 2022. All bar £1mn of the revenue increase was organic growth as the acquisition of Pioneer Health Care only completed a few weeks before the 31 March financial year-end, and the much smaller acquisition of Energy
Fitness Professional completed at the end of 2021.

The cash is lower than forecast, but reading the interims, the recent acquisition of pioneer healthcare has temporarily affected cash flow:
As Pioneer's working capital model is different to the rest of the Group and income is not received as quickly as in other parts of the business, our cash position during the initial period of reporting has been disproportionately impacted, and in particular, over recent months as growth increased beyond management expectations. The position will normalise over coming quarters.

Its possible that margins may be squeezed by the NHS, but also the NHS is a captive client due to its dependence on outsourcing this stuff, and inflexibility on having to provide the services. It all remains to be seen, until further announcement we can only go on historic figures which as I have said above have been very good. Send my regards to Paul.