Member Info for Darola

Hate that you can’t edit on LSE! *loan not line.

HUM have only committed a line to BH, so feel they would only RNS if it that loan was defaulted - I.e BH go bankrupt and the liquidators confirm we are getting zip. But then I’m not sure it will get an exclusive RNS, probably a footnote in the accounts. And I’m hoping that the full year results announce a maiden dividend, which would more than sweeten any bad news on the BH front.

Fair point, but it’s possible that trade payables at this stage also includes outstanding invoices to their operational contractors, so a large chunk should be covered in AISC. Q3 numbers are due in 2/3 weeks and will hopefully shine some light.

Average gold $1214 for the quarter, guess it depends on the sell days though. But assuming circa 27k production we should be looking around $11m in free cash for the quarter. Take some out for drilling and net debt could be down to $7/8m.

A sound logical commercial reason to contradict your assumptive conspiracy theory? Registered address and operational management are rarely in the same location. It means jack s...t

1.2m in August. IIs adding more while PIs sell...

http://investors.morningstar.com/ownership/shareholders-major.html?t=HUMRF

“ALL investors here are unhappy with management performance” - Im unhappy with the share price - but pragmatic about it given the state of the whole sector. I’m NOT unhappy with management, they’ve not put a foot wrong operationally and it’s too early to state they are not using cash wisely. Come back next year and I might be unhappy, right now I’m just fine.

https://www.denvergoldforum.org/webcast/ Click on 26th, HUM is top of middle column - click on name for the podcast.

Have any of the folk on here voiced their concerns directly to the business (I’ve never not had s tesponse)? I also made the trip to London last week to speak to Bert face to face. Whilst their are areas I’d like more clarity on, the primary one is future dividend policy, I’m very comfortable that the immeadiate activity and future intent is the correct approach. I trust the BoD sufficiently to remain patient and I remain very positive about HUMs future. I’m not a trader so have no interest in timing my entry and exit. I look two years from now and see a cash rich, dividend paying company with atleast one value adding M&A under its belt and a SP atleast 100%+ up from here. Or it will have been taken out at a premium - so either way I get a decent return. If you think I’m being naive, then what are you doing here? Why not go and find a company you believe in - there are 1000s of opportunities out there - and put your money with them.

The $13m cost for the ball mill, replaces the previouslet budgeted (included in AISC projections) $8m for a tertiary crusher. HUM decided a ball mill was the better option. So it is actually only an additional spend of $5m. And as has already been mentioned it’s standard accounting practise to depreciate capital assets over a period of time - so the impact to future profits will be minimal. It will increase the average AISC by circa $7 an oz over 6 years - tiny increase for the benefit.

Why do people think we’ve overspent here? Just looks like delayed/final payments - probably dependent on commissioning. “Purchases of Property, Plant and Equipment” in 2017 was 56,368 and in 2018 22,430. So they built a mine for circa 79m? I’m not an accountant so may be missing something obvious. Happy to be corrected.

Always possible of course, but I’m not looking past macro forces - gold and sentiment - to explain HUMs decline, of course if the security incident hadn’t happened, and comms had been slightly better around that time, we may be a few points higher, but not the 50% to 100% we all hoped for. I was looking more for reasons why AAZ has not followed the sector, but been a rare example to buck the trend. And the only clear one I can see is the dividend.

*and maybe

No idea. Guess that depends on the SP at the time - probably at least 6 months away, any maybe something covered in the full year results, which is when I hope - if not before - we’ll hear first commitments to a dividend anyway.

Over the last 6 months there have been 3 pivotal differences between the two. 1. In May AAZ announced some stellar progress, at around the same time HUM announced a security incident. This rallied AAZ but dropped HUM to an equivalent (like for like) difference in SP of circa 17p. By June this had reduced back to around a 4p equivalent as AAZ had a few profit takers, and HUM recovered a little from its drop. 2. In July AAZ announced this “We are accordingly creating a sound financial position from which to announce and pay a maiden dividend" There was no immeadiate reaction to this, other than it stopped AAZ falling with the rest of the sector, it propped them up when others (including HUM) were driven down by low sentiment across the sector. 3. Early September, AAZ announced this “Intention to pay first dividend – board to soon announce policy”. And then this on Wednesday “Maiden dividend declared of US cents 3.00 per share following move into a net cash position subsequent to 30 June 2018”. During this period AAZ rallied around 45%. Now the equivalent difference over the last 6 months is circa 14p. HUM would have to be at 41p to be “like for like”. Hum has delivered some impressive results, it has indicated - and committed to - a calculated growth strategy for Yanfolila, but it hasn’t confirmed a strategic use for cash. It’s all a bit vague, pay off debt, keep a war chest, buy a ball mill, do some drilling - in my crude calculations by mid 2019 HUM should have circa $40m in the bank and be around $10 to $15m net cash positive (although staging of payments for the drilling and ball mill could mean it has much more cash/net cash). This may - and should - drive some SP growth, but the SP feels like it’s pegged to macro forces and sector sentiment - it has tracked GDXJ quite closely, so HUM has to do something different to break from the pack there are three potential triggers for this; 1. Significant news on Dugbe. 2. M&A activity that the market likes (BH seems to be a bit marmite). 3. A dividend or buyback 3. Is absolutely at the boards discretion now, they have the cash to do it tomorrow and I sense it’s becoming a niggle for shareholders already. It was the first question asked on Thursday night, and AAZ has convinced me it’s imperative for HUM to show they really are in it for their shareholders and not their own vanity. I remain very very positive on HUM, I will be adding more in the coming weeks as I’m confident that the penny will drop soon... in reality they’ve only been generating cash flow for 9 months, after years and years as spender, so they probably should be given some time to “bed in”. I’m convinced a dividend will come next year, and with it a rerating.

Dividend. Simple.

“Any professional invested will know that Yanf is fully valued, in fact over-valued in relation to proven revenues still to come” - ok so how do you account for the share register moving from 65% iis to 75% iis if “professionals” see this as overvalued?

Perhaps the WHOLE gold mining sector is cheap, perhaps HUM is performing inline with the whole sector?

Don’t subscribe to your conspiracy theory but do accept there is some race between the SP reflecting the return on investments (drilling & ball mill), and HUM becoming very attractive to another party. It would be more than 40p though...

That’s not his view. Bert stated it during his presentation. Agree it’s a mix of sellers and buyers. But on balance he stated that the register shows a 10% shift from private to institution.