Member Info for Darola

Just taken a closer look at the ii holdings on MS. During July M&G went above 3% but have issued no TR1. Good to see iis buying, but consistently disappointing that AIM doesn’t apply the rules...

Longlad, not sure who indicated that the bod have substantial holdings, take Dan out and there are a good number of PIs with bigger holdings than the other bod members. Best link I have found for holdings is on Morningstar. It’s updated every 3 months, so next due end of September. http://investors.morningstar.com/ownership/shareholders-major.html?t=HUMRF

https://youtu.be/QA0tNJVLabc

https://microcapclub.com/2014/08/the-conviction-to-hold/

It’s all a matter of timescales, which is the unpredictable element. The $ will weaken at some point, sand it may be a ‘snap’ rather than a gentle fall. History has shown us on many occasions that economic cycles have a sudden jolt when they reach their extremes....

Few things that are up there with death and taxes in terms of probability. The dollar will weaken, gold will rise, HUM will pay off its debt and increase its cash pile, CORA will reach a JORC compliant resource and enter a JV with HUM, HUM will extend the LOM, HUM will increase mine capacity. And all of this suggests HUMs SP will rise - what’s not clear is when. And the more of the probabilities that land and the longer the wait for the SP rise, the higher the probability of a takeover - at the type of premiums discussed today. So for the patient HUM will come good at some point, the only thing that can stop it is a force majeur. I didn’t mention M&A (such as B/H) or Dugbe in the above as whilst these are likely, they are not dead certs - I consider that the above points WILL happen.

Good opportunity to meet HUM management for those that can make it.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/register/event_details/165

Read somewhere that HUM converts to Euros, as this is the currency that bills - including salaries and contractor costs - are paid in.

*can’t see!

Personally think the AISC will come in at $750 or lower, as the BoD are incentivised on this figure - and when have they missed a target? Which adds circa $1.3m, before any royalty adjustment.

Appreciate that you figures were to show HUM are profitable if gold pretty much collapses, but I can see how we’ll get to $1000 wen the biggest short position in history has only just pushed us under $1200. So all in all we should whether this storm well and come out the other side with after burners on...

Whether you like BH or not, or even if you are still sat on the fence - however you look at it - that is a well structured and advantageous deal. Just goes to show that HUM have some very smart heads at their disposal. There will probably be more deals in the future - inline with their stated strategy to use cash for M&A - and this gives me great confidence that they will be in HUMs favour.

http://www.alignresearch.co.uk/hummingbird-resources/hummingbird-resources-poor-gold-sentiment-provides-an-even-cheaper-entry-opportunity/

Save your breath FSJ. Lurker5 has no interest in actual facts and refers to the outdated DFS from 2015. Ive pointed him at the Q2 presentation before, he clearly wants to ignore the fact that we are actively drilling to make KNOWN resources JORC compliant. In a number of posts I’ve provided figures, backed up with confirmation from HUM that they pay no tax or gvmt share until ALL of their capital costs have been recouped - so for years yet. Guys just a bad deramper, it’s a bit like arguing with a child who thinks he knows everything, when in reality he knows very little - where HUM are concerned anyway!

Market cap of $120m, with $50m in the bank, we’ll managed debt and a clear roadmap to extend the mine - and make even more cash! This is crazy. We are talking about a profitable, growing, well managed and ambitious company. Not an AUM lifestyle company that’s over promises and diluted every 6 months. Crazy crazy times. This is a Stella contrarian investment. When normality returns we won’t be sat in the 20s.

Always good to take the macro view. But all macro trends, are just that. They always reverse st some point. All a matter of timescales. This article from seeking alpha gives an interesting view on what’s happening with gold - htTps://seekingalpha.com/article/4195201. Particularly like this bit (helps with the confirmation bias!!). “In our view these are almost “Back-Up-The-Truck” levels for gold as it seems this whole downside push is speculative shorts increasing their position, and that rarely lasts. After 7 weeks of short increases, speculators are massive over-sold and those are the best times to buy.”

I would expect that the rationale is simple. To maximise ROCE, using the skills and knowledge they have amassed building Yanfolila, and the strong capabilities of their experienced project team. I don’t think HUM really care about being in gold ETFs, and most of those are not pure gold play anyway. To repeat HUMs strategy for those that have missed it. 1. Increase the LOM at Yanfolila - drilling in process 2. Increase the capacity at Yanfolila. 3. Improve the DFS at Dugbe, to entice or satisfy the requirements, for a JV. 4. Identify M&A opportunities that will maximise the use of free cash and utilise the skills proven with Yanfolila (BH is the first - and has proven interesting enough for further review, even when compared to hundreds of other options - yes, hundreds!) 4a. Return cash to share holders, or buy backs, if no suitable (value adding) M&A is identified. It’s also getting a bit tiring hearing “how much cash are they going to use for “M&A” - this will depend on the size of the deal, and HUM will have various options around financing. Cash, debt, equity etc depending on the opportunity. Let’s remember the recent hire to the BoD has significant experience in City financing. And also M&A is highly secretive, it’s s game of poker and you don’t reveal your hand until you have to. So this news could be out of the blue at any time. If it doesn’t happen, then option 4a happens, and we get a divi - I expect we’ll get one anyway if you hang around for long enough. Final thought, while folk were fretting about the SP or other aspects of HUMs operations, they added another $250k to the bottom line, which when all is said and done is what it’s all about. Keep doing that day in day out and the SP won’t stay here - all bout patience. Believe in the story and exhibit some, or vote with your feet. But moaning just plays to the bears, destroys sentiment and becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. Want the SP to fall, well, just keep moaning....

And Lurker5. You delivered that pile of horse sh 1t on ADVFN, and didn’t respond to my reply on there. Your deramping is ridiculous.

Ive has similar reassurances and accept that there are some macro forces at play her. Seasonal variation (based on 30 yeArs of historical trend), golds recent dip and the Mali elections - all of these are out of HUMs control and should only be temporary effects. HUM can’t just conjure up news because a few concerned PIs are feeling insecure. It’s been said before, current decline isn’t confined to just HUM. I posted a chart last week showing that HUM is pretty much an exact match to SDX. NOTHNG has fundamentally changed here aside from Gold being circa $30 to $40 below the price used for projections. So we’d clear $13.8m a quarter instead of $15.1m - hardly going to stop the growth strategy is it?!

And BH is a red herring if you want to blame that. Spending less than two weeks free cash to put a foot in the door is hardly wasting cash. If the BoD have determined that this project has the potential for significant ROCE, after reviewing hundreds of projects across the globe, then I’m going except their word for it. If it doesn’t stack up they’ll walk away, exactly as they did with AAG.

We are three weeks - four tops - I reckon from a drilling update. Suggest a few people need to turn off their monitors for a while if they can’t accept some volatility while the bored move on and HUM go through s quiet period ahead of some significant updates - which we know are coming.

Even if gold hits $1000 and stays there for a full quarter, we’ll still return over $7m in free cash. And I would imagine it would hit other assets/companies hard, so allow HUM to potentially steal one or two. At some point gold will be back above $1300, might be 12 months, but when it is HUM will have more cash in the bank, an extended LOM and you won’t - IMHO - be able to bu shares for less than 40p, and hopefully even higher.

This is just too much of a coincidence - market forces at play here, nothing to do with anything HUM have done. htTps://twitter.com/darola841662/status/1025504337810870272?s=12

Cross posts!