Member Info for Darola

Yep. Whilst nothing ground breaking came out last night, the positives were reitterated, with the odd additional insight, and the negatives (SP, no dividend, Dugbe progress) all confirmed (for me) as temporary. For instance; -Dugbe is deliberately not been pushed hard until the MDA is signed, if Liberia want HUM to invest in their country, then sign the MDA! - Ball mill cost of $13m already has $8m covered in AISC estimates, I.e HUM always expected. Ball mill will ensure production is maintained at 120k+ year after year... - 10k meters drilled, startup was expected to be slow. 40k for the rest of the year is a stretch but achievable as the drilling teams get more and more established and the ground conditions (post wet season) allow for faster drilling. News will be more frequent on this as it accelerates. Q3 will include more details. - I strongly expect BH not to go forwards, I don’t recall the exact answer to the question (Franks audio will help), but it intimated to me it was more work than they anticipated so probably won’t happen. - no dividend (at the moment) is because they have to 1. Stabilise production over a full year cycle 2. Cover near term expenses, ball mill, drilling and debt 3. Ensure that once it’s given it’s sustainable and I also guess progressive. - I.e can increase year by year. 4. Endure they can maintain a reasonable war chest - HUM has outperformed the vast majority of its peers and is upper quartile. Although Bert acknowledged this was no consulation when you want a positive return. He also brought at 37p thinking HUM were cheap.. HUM is well positioned, once sentiment returns, to attract investors ahead of the majority of its peers. In 2016 GDXJ rerated by over 200%. That’s what happens when the money comes back into the sector. So if the average was 200%, then the top performers would be 3/400%+ And for me HUM has all the attributes to beat its peers, and rerate above any average. Just need some patience here. Question of the night for me - “what’s your market cap and PER!” Think he just turned up for the free sandwich’s!!

Any deal requires share holder approval to go forwards, whilst that may only come down to half a dozen iis, they are surely not getting to agree unless it has the potential to return more value than currently. We have a strong cash enervation - relative to market cap, planned 2019 drilling campaign and infrastructure expansion, and an ‘as is’ broker target of 90p+. So iis wouldn’t vote yay unless this oppprtunity was surpassed and the SP opportunity was north of this, and given the take on risk it would have to be well north or they’ll just say nah, it’s too big for you, go find another deal.

https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/proactive-one2one-forum-20th-september-tickets-49081551241?utm_source=eb_email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=reminder_attendees_48hour_email&utm_term=eventname

Statements like “Whatever might follow or prolong Yanf has not yet been determined nor its likely cost.” lose you any credibility and just display ignorance. The Q2 presentation clearly shows how Yanfolila will be extended using KNOWN resources, with recent RNSs building on this. And have you not been following the progress of Cora? I mean how blindingly obvious is it what’s going to happen there!

Look at the gold ETFs over the last 6 months, overlay with HUM and price of gold and it’s no coincidence that they track very close to each other. HUM will make some progress of its own back, but any major rerate will be inline with the whole market. I’m pretty relaxed here. HUM is doing nothing wrong here and when gold and gold producers are back in vogue HUM will outperform it’s peers, it has to just to catch them up...

Iis are continuing to buy. PIs have very little influence on this. They are happy to sweep them up as PIs sell without creating a demand. M&G have added 11.1m in the last few months. Other than creating an excuse for MMs to drop the price PIs have little influence on the price here - or the CEO, or how the company spends its cash. So long as the iis are happy, and It’s a pretty safe bet they are better informed than any of us, then HUM will keep doing what they are doing. Said it before, two things will happen here. 1. SP will respond to increasing cash piles and the activity to extend LOM and resources, or 2. We will be brought out. Both result in a premium to here, so sit tight.

How do you figure that it’s the fault of the BH deal? When since the BH announcement we’ve pretty much performed inline with (within a few % points) GDXJ - so we’re tracking the average performance of over 70 junior gold minors. We’re actually marginally outperformed GDXJ over the last 3 months. Folk are looking for excuses here and as I see it there is one. Sentiment on gold mining stocks.

Market is crazy at the moment. GDX & GDXJ are both flagged as heavily oversold. With some reports that it could go lower still - https://ceo.ca/@TheDailyGold/gold-miners-setting-up-for-big-rally. In 2016 they were in a similar position and rallied over 200%. But something needs to light the touch paper.

HUM can only keep on doing what they are doing, comms could be better but it’s not the reason for the SP - the facts on performance and the fundementals are very well known now. We might make some gains when the drilling news is released - I expect this ahead of next weeks proactive event - and further confirmation of progress in the Q3 update which should be put late October. But any significant moves will only happen when the whole mining sector s back in vogue, and this could still be 1 to 2 years away.

Really? So releasing drill results that confirms the resource base and extension of the LOM adds no value?

Selling today looks like PIs. I can’t understand why people would sell out now just before first drill results. Some people seem to have no patience.

They are presenting at the pro-active event on the 20th, so would hope they have some news out by then. Certainly 1st drilling results shoukd be out but Interims may be pushing it, to release them and include in an updated presentation, but let’s see.

Assuming HUM has continued to pour 11k a month, then in the last 2 months- since the Q2 figures - it’s generated a further $10.3m in free cash! Or circa 10% of its market cap! Based on average gold since 1st July of $1221 and an AISC of $750 (assumed lower royalty on reduced gold price).

HUM just needs to keep doing what it’s doing, we’ve all been vocal on their PR, which although it could have been better, TBH it’s a lot better than other companies I hold - who don’t even acknowledge PIs, yet alone respond, hold conference calls etc. The more I reflect and compare HUM to its peers and revelant indexes (including gold) the more convinced I am that none of this is really their doing. If they just keep doing what they are doing, as soon as the macro sentiment and trends turn positive HUM will rise very quickly.

I think the success with the drill bit will be the defining moment here. If we add JORC compliant resource to extend the LOM beyond 10years, plus add to annual outputs as illustrated in the companies recent presentation - and the SP doesn’t react - then we become a very real acquisition target.

The perfect storm!

https://twitter.com/darola841662/status/1033103810443583493?s=12

Good timing! HUM slowly ticking up on low volumes. Lovely!

Who ever is selling needs to give their head a wobble.

From an assassin?

And still mid-quoting people! No need to let accuracy get in the way of a good debate!

Now we seem to have a much more sensible and balanced bunch of posts on here, I’d welcome the points for both arguments - so come on CD & Lobon let’s have them. For me BH is still away off (so is CORA for that matter), and I’ll judge it’s worth on the DFS or NPV when they are presented, which is where I reckon HUM mgmt are and why they are doing due dillegence - they obviously think their initial view on this , when compared to the significant number of other projects reviewed, is enough for a more detailed look. HUMs kind of dropped in to the boring category for now, but worse case scenario it keeps doing what it’s doing, pays off the debt, adds additional JORC compliant resources, and adds cash to the bank balance year, after year, after year.

Could be because they are accumulating for a fund - “exceptions include fund managers, and under EU rules they can disclose at 5% and 10%”.

I’ve mailed HUM and M&G to ask.