Member Info for danl90

Yeah you can get a loan against shares to buy another asset. Not more shares in the same business

That’s a circular reference and you really can’t do that

When you want to borrow £820m people tend to ask where it’s going

Sorry it was an autocorrect and put a C for card

Not sure where the cards were from but CD&R will probably push American Greetings

I just thought it was worth sharing as someone made a point of Tesco not selling balloons. Well Morrison’s do. It’s a full offering along with fish fingers

Thought it worth passing on and taking a look. Do with this what you will

@itsagame

You ever heard of Enron? Yeah you can’t really do that

You’re correct that we would benefit from the reverse dilution. But for all of us here recently we were never the ones diluted

There’s no doubt that this won’t be a quick recovery now. The confidence lost here will hold this back along while now

The business needs to just focus on hitting those Christmas numbers now. Also any big client ingenuity win news flow would be good

Need to see a good balance after Christmas too or they will have to pause M&A longer than we might like

Mahmud and Carol own 12% the directors own bugger all

The CEO has never even bought a share!

Take the founders out and the management own nothing

Anyone been?

Full Card shop offering. Balloons, banners, bunting the lot

In effect a mini Card store. Assume other supermarkets will follow suit

@okle

Tbh the bonus makes little difference to us current shareholders. The article say shareholders have faced dilution twice. That’s only true if those shareholders held prior to SoftBank deal

If you’re buying now it’s all factored in

A way to look at it is SoftBank bought us Bentley labs, Cult and the nutrition businesses

But I agree it would look good if Matt handed back and put in place a plan to get shares back to it

Yeah you’re right Kallu all those wages going up people are definitely poorer

Driving two cars, holidays, eating out. Yeah you’re right

We are all returning to Fudal times wearing white and brown

Your house must be horrid

The acquired brands did £275m last year in total? No idea where that stat comes from

The figures I quoted are all from RNS as contribution for FY21

Beauty is weighted heavy to Halloween and Christmas

So quite easy Kallu. He could cancel the current scheme and realign the targets

Re properties. Matt owns them and we rent them. That’s all it’s common in a lot of businesses but not typically when they are PLCs

From readying comments it seems a lot of you don’t understand the spin out so though I’d quickly say

So atm you own 100% of everything. 100% of beauty, nutrition and ingenuity (an entity which is being created)

The plan is to float a minority stake in beauty so let’s say 25%. What happens is each of us would see shares in our portfolio equal to our 25% stake in beauty. So can do with these what you like

The other 75% will be owned by topco which in effect will be ingenuity (as beauty and nutrition spin out). So when people say ingenuity will be left with just a business people value at £0 is not true. Ingenuity will also own its stake in beauty

One bit here that’s not known is will beauty raise some cash on its ipo and how will that be funded

Let’s say beauty gets a fair beauty industry multiple of 1.8 - 2x revenue at £1.2bln this year you can see beauty should have a sizeable impact on raising the profile of the whole group. This also means that as the beauty paper now has a higher rating it can do M&A which is accretive to shareholders (if my business is worth 10x EBITDA as long as I pay you a lower multiple I gain. Also same multiple arbitrage - if your business is worth 5x it then gets seen in my larger business at 10x so I’ve double my money (this is a basic PE buy and build play)

Atm THG is a little difficult spot as there is M&A to do out there but given the low value of our paper we can’t do it without diluting shareholders. Hence Matt saying there’s no pipeline atm

For me beauty needs to hit that revenue number and also build out a story of how margins will recover and advance with scale. Dermstore was very dilutive to margins so I think management need to tell us how this is going. If they do those things beauty could be very attractive

Medium term I’d like beauty to focus on more own brand M&A

Simon Bowler at Numis seems to think the organic parts of this business aren’t growing. I decided to see if I agree (for beauty as Nutrition has very little revenue growing M&A it’s all mainly vertical integration)

So FY20 beauty revenue was £751m
C.£15m of that growth was Perricone MD which does £50m a year
(£751m - £15m) x 1.25 = £938m
Add Perricone MD (£50m)
Add Bentley (£25m)
Add Dermstore (£135m)
Add Cult (£60m)

So revenue needs to be £1.208bln by December. Atm Beauty has done £708m

So £500m to do in 3 months. It feel a lot but these are big make up months (Halloween and Christmas). For reference last year Beauty did £300m in this quarter but that was just Lookfantastic and Glossybox. So the extra £200m feels a lot but now you have all the brands above contributing

Also this is to hit top end range of 25% organic growth. The expectation is between 20-25% so there is some wiggle room but do feel like this could comfortably happen

I mean Cult did £2m in 2 hours with those advent calendars and the Lookfantastic one has now sold out too

I don’t think he will do this. He could hand it back and put it back in. Saying share price over £x in the future

I’d rather have the properties back atm. £19m isn’t a huge amount but compounded it’s a decent wack of cash

Lookfantastic has been part of THG for years so it won’t be a surprise. Plus the packaging has THG written on it so she will be a aware. Maybe this just wasn’t a factual post?

If you’d have Cult that would have been more believable

What would PE pay to own a world leading nutrition brand?

Vertically integrated, leading market positions and strong recurring revenue profile

I disagree that internet shopping is fun

I know lots that do it out of boredom. Especially fashion and beauty. Convenience is more the Amazon stuff like the other day we needed a new part for a dyson hoover. Generic shopping and bought the cheapest

But for fashion you browse and are engaged

@syngold that’s not how an ipo works

The brokers hire the accountants, lawsuits etc for the due diligence at the ipo

I haven’t bought an asset on this basis at all. I’m just making a potentially factual point that an option on the table here (as well as others) is that SoftBank could buy tbe lot

I didn’t invest here as I thought SoftBank would buy it. But it is a possibility

Read what I wrote

Or stick to being sexist you’re better at that

I wouldn’t get excited but one potential get out of jail free card here is SoftBank just come for the lot

The business has got its messaging wrong. The spin off has been the genesis of this mess. It’s very common in Asia to have different parts in different listing but it’s not common here or in US and it’s all been a bit messy

SoftBank take the lot. Merge ingenuity with auto store and then go for the strategy I said sector by sector

Have you answered the above? No

Why do you think those businesses didn’t? You think a huge conglomerate like those is going to lift their skirt on a capital markets day and say “yeah we couldn’t do x,y or z so THG is helping”

That would be suicidal for them when they are supposed to be global businesses themselves

Again your business acumen is terrible

Stick to being sexist you’re better at that