Member Info for danl90

Come on asos! One to snag

A great brand which can be accelerated on an asos platform!

Also already launched beauty which asos would like to do in-house at some point

Get the check book out

Looking for an emergency £50m

As I said wages and other costs is good for boohoo/ asos (for a certain period) as they can afford these costs but also rely on scale and automation to mitigate these costs when the smaller competition cannot

So Missguided has gone from seeking to sell to calling in AlixPratners

One for asos to snap up! Boohoo won’t buy as Missguided hate boohoo family and vice versa (although if it goes into admin this doesn’t matter)

No you're right rag just the c.£600m or so of value that fell in the week or so after

Rag attempt 47 = C-

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/BOO/uk-retailers-want-human-rights-law-to-protect-supply-chain-workers-lr4p1fiv1c57jxi.html

I know this article seems negative on boohoo as the "had" done something wrong in the past I actually think this is positive as UK and other govs are going to have to start stopping Shein and others. Its outrageous that the human rights abuses are allowed to happen. And under the curtain of china there will never be a scandal to awaken the public

But good to see and let's hope there are some teeth to this. Ultimately boohoo is now on the right side of the line now

Ha I'm sorry I thought it was just too good to miss!

Wouldn't mind a good old Pennywise story now to get us all ready for the weekend

"So whether someone forensically analyses past financial reports and plots out future profits to determine a fair buying price" I prefer knowing about the Manchester fashion manufacturing scene in the 80's as a proxy for investment into a technology driven, global online retailer such as boohoo

:)

Kallus all upset after warehouse gate tbis morning

Bruised that one? Unlucky fella

All the money I have is from profits on previous investments

Revolution don’t have an advantage? Really? Ok why you think that?

Not like they are most popular on tik tok
Cheapest and best value for money
Fastest to market
Signed a number of exclusive collabs
Prime store location in 1,800 target stores and front of all Superdrug stores while competitors are at the back

You’re right there’s nothing there really and I must’ve misunderstood

I don’t think anyone has said there will be? The point stands that we have going out clothes to sell. We want people out

It’s hardly a long term business model to hope our competitions ****s every few months

Fool? Why so dramatic

A lockdown now would be terrible. Boohoo and asos are pregnant with Christmas stock they bought early (both have stock balances c.£200m higher than PY) this is all out going Christmas stock

If lockdown stop people going out we can kiss that £200m good bye

The earlier comment is apt that boohoo was able to pivot faster than anyone else yo loungewear (asos was slower as third party brands are glacial). This won’t be the case now as every brand has increased their lounge offering

We need everything open. You WANT to compete. If you think you have the best product and proposition why do you want competitors closed and conserving cash? Rather them be open and have costs at full tilt

Agree it's like hearing boohoo/ asos 10 years ago

Larger competitors taking 18months! madness

Just went to two Superdrug stores in Manchester and asked an assistant and Rev is highest selling brand in both stores. Start of next year we will then also be in 350 boots stores (currently only our poorer XX rev brand)

The dip just looks to be from a bleeding of sells but they are all tiny tiny values but of course someone has to find a buy price. There is just no volume in this stock until it's been here a little longer and has delivered a good Christmas

But holderwise you have the top 3 shareholders taking 50% of the business. That's a great sign

Jupiter cornerstoned the ipo and have 18% and then you have the two founders with 16% each. It's a great sign when management have serious skin in the game. They didn't take too much out on IPO. The majority of their wealth is here with us

Re vox watch the interview with the Rev Ceo. He tells you what is wrong with the industry and why this will win in it's market sector

and have done

Revolution also have a deal with boots and also superdrug

WarPaint has a higher valuation and is much smaller

With Revolution you have Jupiter cornerstoning for £90m in the same fund they backed Hut, Secret Escapes and Transferwise so you're in good company. The stock is coming down but it's on no volume (like £500 trades) so I'm happy to snap some more

Also last years revenue had very little store revenue. All that will come back on stream

Check out the collabs too - but let's take this to the Rev board?

Will be buying more soon...

Just curious if any of you have seen this business?

It's in effect trying to do what asos/ boohoo did for fashion for beauty ie use a test and repeat model to be on trend all the time. It's then backed this up with social media (no 1 brand on tik tok)

It's also omni-channel from inception so no upexpected increase to costs now all the foundations are there

It's the no 1 budget beauty brand in Target in the US where it out-sell Revlon ($2.4bln revenue). Revolution should do £220m this year so big upside

Take a look

Oh and

- inflation which back then was “transitory” now seems to be more aggressive

So there’s quite a lot there to make you change your mind on what the fair value for this business could be

Without a ceo you can trust, a firm plan and the headwinds above that £60 (or whatever number) might look a lot more tempting

No they didn’t and I’m not saying £60 is a magic number but those funds had other factors when the shares were £60. £80 back then might have felt possible as

- the ceo was staying and firm and had a great track record

- growth was consistently high

- outbound freight costs had not yet risen

- cotton prices were lower

- capex expectations were materially lower

- guidance for next years growth was higher than what has now been set out

- further advance of competitors (the city has become more aware of Shein etc)

But these material issues have all changed. Look at the broker targets. You’ve seen huge cuts to their view of a fair value of asos

So there’s a lot changed since that price. And given these headwinds, sharp drop in price and no firm strategy if 6 months ago you might have been a firm no to any approach you would now be more open to hear the offer

A bit like your car. You wouldn’t sell it but after a few more months of owning it. Mot is due, you know it needs new tyres, new model is coming out so you know it might take a depreciation hit also new car supply will come around again so 2nd hand values are good today you might not get that price in a few months. It’s the same for investors. A business can seem like something you want to hold forever but then things change. If while you’re pondering what those changes are someone gives you everything that’s promised from management in 5 years time why wouldn’t you take the money today?

M&S share price dropped. That’s a single factor. I have never said a bid is opportune atm as the price is low. This being the 4th time you’ve made something up I haven’t said

Why would timing of a bid be hard now? A suitor could be in rude health atm (Amazon for example) why would they wait for asos to be back on its feet and make a deal harder and more expensive?

Firms have corporate development teams (internal teams designed purely for M&A) and external advisors. So yeah now wouldn’t be a great time but as I keep saying if someone had always fancied buying asos this is an OPPORTUNE time as it would struggle to defend itself. You can’t decide when that perfect time comes. Sometimes it’s when you least expect. But that’s life

Because deals happen all year round. As I’ve made clear this (if there is something brewing) would be an opportune approach based on the fact that share price is low on poor trading and no ceo

If an acquirer was to wait you open up more unknowns.

- Asos may trade well over Christmas so the HUGE premium you’d be offering now might not look so handsome if the price rises after a results update

- a new ceo (although not in seat) might give some investors who might have considered selling confidence to stay ie Mr/ Mrs X has a great track record or the fund is familiar with that person

- acquiring business could trade poorly over Christmas so the value of your paper to do a deal falls and therefore isn’t accretive for your shareholders

- someone else might come along and you’re in a bidding war. Going quick you run in clear air

The distraction for asos isn’t your concern if you’re buying a business there is always a distraction. There is always going to be a key period of trading and BOD will have more than 9-5 jobs. The answer is you just have to make it work

Advisors are easy to find and they will work all hours. Don’t worry about that

But again I was only suspecting if a deal could be happening. But when you’re ready to go you go

Poker you’re picking a bit out and not considering all I wrote the point is asos is weaker to defend an approach when without a ceo.

If someone offered a good price now how could the BOD convince investors to turn down a substantial premium vs going with their plan when they don’t know the plan! The new ceo will set the plan as they see fit

Also your point that main shareholders don’t have the same objective as us is incorrect. They are funds out to make profit. If the offer is fair value they will sell. Also an offer could be in an instrument other than cash so they can carry on to ride the upside

Agree an approach would be annoucable I was wondering if this was happening. Obviously if this isn’t the case there will be no annoucement

So to be clearly (again) the point isn’t that asos is more likely to sell because they don’t have a ceo. The point is that it’s harder to defend. Every listed business which could be a takeover target will have a rule 3 defence playbook in its top draw (ive wrottten some) and key to that will be the ceo convincing investors that more value would come from not selling

How would those chats go now when it’s the COO and people are thinking “well you’re telling me x,y,z but the reality is you can’t guarantee anything as your don’t even know how your boss is never mind if they will agree to this plan”

So any investors which had as a strength “strong experienced management” and “clear plan and strategy” as an asos attribute can’t currently say that