Member Info for danl90

I hold both stocks so I'm not biased (some will call this "deramping" but that's because they hear a FACT about their "investment" that makes them uncomfortable so better to put head in sand)

But does it not say a lot that the CEO of Asos who left earlier this week has bought stock (even though he's not working there anymore) and JL won't!

Honestly it's really starting to gripe me. I've recently bought Hut (nightmare there atm!) but the management team there (who arguably caused this mess by getting too clever) are in this with me and feeling the pain (MM will have to order a smaller yacht)

Yet JL just keeps cashing the cheques no issues. It really stinks

@kallu but this isn't online as such. This is when you say "will get underpressure from digital landlord such as amazon etc" well that's what ingenuity is trying to be. Another, more advanced offering of amazon

So this business fits with your big reason for why boohoo doesn't work

Hi Okle

In the £85m figure you see in the H1 results there is no inter company revenue. There is also no intercompany revenue in the £18m ecommerce revenue

What was hidden away at the back of the deck was the Ingenuity will charge Beauty 3% GMV post spin off

Ecommerce revenue (which is the high value sexy bit) is forecast to be £90m in a couple years time. If thats true and we learn that margins are high then this will be a great buying opportunity

Worth remembering at H1 results Hut took a non cash cost on the softbank option which basically meant Softbank saw themselves in profit on Ingenuity already!

Ingenuity gives Softbank co's just as much as they give Hut. We don't know their full vision but looking at the collabs so far ingenuity seems to advance a tonne of their companies and their offer

No ingenuity does have it's own hosting. They said this many times

The "daft" part of ingenuity atm is that we don't currently make any profit on the warehousing and logistics. It's all done at cost

The beauty I thought was that if you're scrapping 1% off the worlds warehousing that's a very nice prize but atm that was nil gain

£700m liquidity is not £700m cash

They had £1bln liquidity at end of H1 and was £400m cash

But the diff is Cult (let me check though)

I think worry is almost they don't split now

Ingenuity is a great business but we weren't clear on margins or pipeline for growth. Will they fill all these big warehouses as a standalone business? It's not known

Quality of clients also felt poor and confused. Lots of shouting about the big names but then in the Q&A saying how going to SME was huge and even higher margin. Well if that's the case show us that

I think they need to just deliver on numbers now. Have a good Christmas. Seen plenty of influencers pushing lookfantastic

Also nice plug for Revolution Beauty! But Hannah interviewing him was poor

It’s difficult to value. Arguably a vertically integrated collection of brands of beauty and nutrition should attract a very high premium, especially ones showing such growth (I imagine Gymshark if it does come to market will get a strong rating)

If you use 2x revenue which is what Hut paid for Cult then there is upside here

On an EBITDA basis it’s tougher as you have to look through the covid headwinds and see if you believe they will pass. EBITDA this year should be £180m or so and 20x on such growth in these sectors feels reasonable

I think a lot of this is people not believing in online anymore

RNS this morning was poor

Hardly any media or opinion pieces

I don’t think anyone knows what to make of this

Valuing just beauty, nutrition and cash this is now value

I think they have something amazing in ingenuity. The question is it worth more as a service you can sell to others to drive their growth or is it better used as a platform which hut can dominate industry after industry

Hut had been about the later but at ipo was signing the former

People just aren’t buying the “size of the prize” for ingenuity given competition and it’s smaller scale

Tomorrow they need to cancel beauty spin off. Tell SoftBank to up their stake in parent co (not new equity) and the lay out industries to dominate (pet, house hold goods - basically all the sectors we are planning to sell ingenuity to)

Exactly and examples are there. Today saying cult beauty replatformed to ingenuity in 10 weeks and enhancing margin

This should be one business that swallows others and drives them

SoftBank already own 10% of top co

Problem is if they don’t do the split there not much cash for more M&A and capex so might need a cash call

If you think about it that was the cornerstone of hut
“What can we shift online better than anyone else?”

Nutrition not synergy with beauty except similar market dynamics ie growing in numbers but also growing “premiumisation”

Pet food doing the same and we can keep making 45% margin

This needs a chairman as this flying off the hook hasn’t been smart! Only been listed a year

They need to cancel the spin off

They did a great job today of telling people today how ingenuity has made myprotein and beauty a success

What they did a terrible job of doing was saying why people will buy this service enough to make it profitable. How many tins of personalised quality street do you have to sell to make a 200,000 sq ft factory profitable!

Instead the strategy needs to be
- we have ingenuity as we use this for data and insight into other sectors. It washes its face but is the thing that powers the brands and businesses we own (later part was the message at ipo)
- we will now use ingenuity to go and replicate what we have done in beauty and nutrition in other sectors ie premium pet care (a huge and attractive market)

Imagine a business that is no1 online for beauty, nutrition and pet. Once they have done pet they can pick another sector and the market would then view this as an Amazon which also owns the brands

The view today that scratching 2% GMV will be great is compelling if you hit massive scale but in reality what we should do is buy a pet business that’s doing £70m revenue and say “watch us turbo charge this”

I might have to bail this at a loss

Take the hit

I have believed there was a value in ingenuity but people clearly don't think there is!

Called it wrong

I think it's because there won't be a link with beauty and nutrition long term

Beauty and nutrition are just ingenuity's sales pitch ie we have done this, built this through pain and experience and look at the results it yields

I thought that that analyst's question was the better one only john got aggressive at that point and it sort of ruined it but he's saying when you have £90m revenue penciled in for commerce revenue in two year the charging of fulfillment and delivery will be upside

Some great points and the clients are raving about it

Growth in the recurring revenues from customer cohorts was great and what this business is about

Currently they don't charge for fulfillment or delivery so that's something they will start to do at margin and isn't in forecast numbers

The bit that let down was the vagueness. I did bring some bits to life but I think as this is an early business you really want to see the full case study with a meaningful journey

What they offer is more than competitors it just all individually sounds like you could do it but the point is is that you can't without huge fixed cost gains, capex, management time and the risk of errors and break downs

Add all that and then try and do in Korea when you're a business in Swansea? Impossible. But with Ingenuity you can do in weeks

Price frozen

This is a disaster!

Someone doesn't like what they heard! ha

It was good but vague on the growth

Lots of big "addressable market" claims but you didn't get the feeling they have a huge killer pipeline but I guess they can't say anything forward looking

You certainly see the benefit of this. It's not about just taking a brand online. It's about international

You can crack the code for online sales in teh UK but then try and go the US. That isn't copy and paste and half of your suppliers won't be able to help in the US

Also very few can back this up with fulfillment or any marketing and data

Going well so far!

Here we go guys get ready

Boom or bust