Member Info for danl90

Sorry I think you’ve misread my post. Rag think test and repeat the way boohoo do it is flawed and will fail

He also claimed it’s the same as what topshop did when they operated 300 stores

What topshop did was send stuff to 10% of stores. So you are “guessing” where it might be popular. Also you can’t cover whole of U.K. it’s also clear that you couldn’t get a reasonable read from 30 stores with just 300 units

Also there’s no data ie what other items did they browse? Why did they find this product? What did the pair it with? Did the size up or size down? Etc etc

So I think what you see from this is rags insight was useful in the 80s but now it’s out of date

Sosandar isn’t operating “trend” if you’re PLT and need to be the trend or follow the trend very fast you need to agile. But a sosandar customer is very different and more conservative

Ever been in a Tesco and next to the Special K there is an almost identical own brand? Always been a case always will be

With Olaplex the current dupe. Rev have not copied the formula as Olaplex has a patent all they have done is created a product with similar results at a much lower price point. There are no claims of it having the Olaplex formula. It’s often the consumer who claims it’s a dupe but there will be an equal amount who say it isn’t. Just opinion and being a “dupe spotter” is sort of a cool thing on social media so a lot of dupe claims are made when they are just trying to get attention

I think the common sense consumer understands it’s not the same product in any sense it’s just perhaps inspired by to make it’s accessible for people who can’t afford Olaplex

Yeah data and test & repeat together. Like JL said the other day suppliers won’t do the small volumes but as boohoo give them so many lines they accept this from them. Others won’t be able to give the lines so won’t get the test and repeat benefit (rag - and I’m digging him here - is saying test and repeat isn’t sustainable and he got a 300 unit KM order and refused it but his business has 8 people. The telegraph article with Lost Boys are saying they more than happy to have it from boohoo). Again it’s a point I don’t understand with rag as from his industry expertise he say test and repeat doesn’t work and is flawed yet it’s the majority of this business? Why invest if you disagree with the model? Seems mad. Same with mark down pricing. Said it’s the way to go bust. Yet every boohoo brand is heavily marketing mark down even KM! But enough about that

On the other point I don’t see boohoo getting to that point tbh. Current capex projects get you to £4.7bln turnover capacity. You’d think boohoo be knocking that in 5 years so I just don’t think they will ever get in front of it to have enough spare to sell. Plus by then if you’ve got hut, asos and next doing it you might be too late to the party to have enough scale/ customers to make it commercially viable

@P good summary but you miss the secret sauce. For all of that fulfilment etc you build an immense wall of data. Track customers across online to know how and when to target them. Also you can spot and identify new trends

The other point boohoo can do that a smaller retailer can’t is test and repeat in such small volumes. Boohoo can gamble on what might work. 1,000s of bets a week some work - great make 10,000 of it. Some don’t and cost is minimal whilst also stopping a working cap build

Smaller companies design a range and just guess demand. “Ermmmm 8 products shall we get 2000 of each?” 3 items don’t sell at all and you’re stuck with a tonne of clothes and likely hardly a profit or cash to carry on

This is why so many brands have a bit of initial success and then fail as they have to keep turning up the “guess”. One time there will be a collection that’s not right and pop

It’s logistics with data

This is why I’ve been buying Hut recently. Their ingenuity platform is this for businesses. It’s like a steroid. Businesses grow bigger and stronger than they could alone (hotel choc couldn’t get to US) but like steroids their gain is great as long as you stay on the steroids

I think at the asos capital markets day they will announce they are heading down this route as well. Being a “hut ingenuity” for clothing brands

This is the bit JD are scared of as the DTC shopping change could cut them out entirely (hence why they are buying own brands left, right and centre)

Boohoo has a great moat in its brands

It’s all very interesting and great to see how it will all play out. Boohoo just been slow in some platform areas but on the catch up now

Can anyone share?

Outbound I addressed. This will fall as commercial flights to US re start

@poker I said this when I mentioned Shein. Being listed and having to guide on margin also stops you being able to get into a price war

But I was shot for even saying boohoo had a competitor

@apb how dare you say anything bad against boohoo!

Neil (CFO) said the analysis for the US warehouse has only got better over last 12 months. So they have done the work they just decided “nah, not now”

But say this out loud it’s “negative” well I’d say the £2billion of market cap that’s vanished is probably more negative

Someone ask rag if the stock should be 50p, 150p or 500p

You will absolute waffle for an answer and a nice story about pennywise

Positives I’ve posted

Valuation (not that you understand this)

Some real points06 Oct 2021 09:36
https://www.boohooplc.com/sites/boohoo-corp/files/all-documents/result-centre/2021/boohoo-plc-interim-results-presention-300921.pdf

Pg 32 - if you believe freight costs will pass. Debenhams will start to pay its own way and automation has a cash return. Then the EBITDA for H2 was £135m!

This business is weighted to Christmas but let’s be conservative and say it 50:50 so double it’s £270m EBITDA on an underlying basis

On a poor forward multiple that puts this at like x8-x9 which is beyond a joke

Add to this the expected £24m annual cash saving from Burnley automation and the cash generation value alone makes this cheap

Then look to the future. Sheffield automation (when done 2-3 years) saves £20m annually

You can then start to model in Debenhams, Arcadia brands and then wholesale (wholesale isn’t a positive it’s just a fix for Europe where management are out of ideas for how to fix the decline)

You can easily see EBITDA at +£300m, £320m £350m or higher

All priced in at £2.3billion today

What even crazier on the above? I haven’t even modelled in growth of PLT and boohoo! If they do go back to 20% annual growth the numbers get stupid very fast

My point being that on a standstill basis this business is double value just by delivery from investment in the platform. This has been managements mistake they went for scale before quality (asos is the inverse) but hey ho it will be sorted next 3 years. US warehouse will handle £1bln of sales

So on a standstill this is cheap. Growth? Wow

Shipping prices - I say I think they will pass (big headwind atm) and I posted and article this morning showing they might have to much happiness

Speed to US - I’m hoping commercial flights fixes this

Just a few. But as I say I’m not blind to faults. I’m a realist. I’m here to try and make a profit not out of blind love

No US warehouse has been a mistake (I said this for 18months or so). I’m obvs not happy I was right

Directors no buying. Bit of a joke

Boohoo brand. Bit tired and needs a refresh

But overall I can articulate why this is a buy

But please share the negatives. Or just keep swinging and missing

Please point out the negatives. I’d love to see them. But you won’t. It’s much easier to just say something and not be able to back it up. It’s also what children do

Negative? How about my post a few days ago that pointed out that on a 0 growth cash generation valuation this stock is cheap? Read that one or just misunderstood it (later I’d guess)

Someone who makes points but can’t back them up. Yeah you sound like a real solid character. Come on step up to the plate. Don’t just make wild accusations stand up for them

You’re better than this, surely?

On the supply point. Revolution own all their brands and IP for the products but most of their product is made at a factory owned by the Chairman

But we have a call option to buy it for £23m so as this business grows that price gets cheaper and cheaper for us (as as our profit grows the factory profit should grow too)

Tbh I’d favour buying the factory sooner rather than later as it would be margin enhancing for us (just need to see what level of profit it does make)

For hair products I assume made at a third party

Yes revolution own rev plex

Gf is going to try it out soon so I’m hoping to hear good reviews!

Wait so you can just throw random offensive statements and then you can’t back them up?

What were you expecting me to do? Just accept wild and unfounded accusations that are incorrect?

What an idiot! You got all excited to have a dig and you’ve shot your load far too early and made yourself look silly

Next time you want to make a point at me. Come with real ammo or understanding

Honestly this was too easy. You’re the one making the point. Be a man and back it up

@rag might need a new joke

@hereshopin go through my last few posts and tell me where the negative bits are. As I say I’m not against stating some of the flaws. It’s a stock not a cult or a football club. You don’t have to love it warts and all

But please point out the overly resounding negative sentiment I give off. You’ll struggle (or maybe that you don’t understand the positives)

I’ll wait…

No I said I wouldn’t do one larger post. I never said I wouldn’t stop posting

Please add learning to read to your list of things to do this weekend

Fountain of knowledge. It’s clear I know tbis business better than you. I see you clueless on how to take on Kallu. He’a had you a few times!

I’ve had shares for a while (obvs now I wish I didn’t!)

But again does me having shares or not change this factual point? No but you ignore that and opt for a childish answer

You’ll have to step it up if you want to try and make me look foolish. You’ll see most of my posts are bullish but I also don’t buddy my head in the sand on the negatives

I’ve pointed out a lot of negatives that I said could be big issues. Annoyingly I was right sooner than I thought (ie Shein and US warehouse)

But again please tell me what’s the % of employee ownership excl MK and Carol. And how many shares JL has bought with his own cash

I’ll wait but you won’t say…

@Hereshopin my point is factual. It’s ramping or dreaming. Purely factual. I’m long on this stock and have been buying

But factually what is this number if you take out MK and Carol? Also how many shares has JL ever bought with his own cash

If you don’t like those factual answers then question if you’re wearing blinkers in regard to your investment. Fine if it’s your football team and you want to argue one right back is better than another. That’s opinion. This is factual just one you don’t like

Take out MK and Carol and what’s the number?

How is this if you live in say Arizona?