Member Info for danl90

- pg 35 customer co horts this is really positive. Customers we have we keep (at least from year 2 to year 3). This suggests that customers boohoo has are not being stolen by Shein or other brands. This is positive. It’s is just slightly annoying the attrition from year 1 to year 2 seen last year and historically. Why is it that such a high amount of shoppers shop once and then leave? Would be great if boohoo shared some insight into what drive customer acquisition and then churn. But we view what we can see and it’s broadly positive
- by the end of this current push of investment (US warehouse done) there will be sales capacity of £4.7bln! Wow! That means we they chose boohoo wouldn’t have to invest a penny for the business to double (SCALABLE PLATFORM IS WHY YOURE HERE). If you imagine that Adj EBITDA number above and then imagine no capex. You’d be looking at annual cash generation of over £300m annually. On a conservative DCF model assuming you’d be looking way north of £4 (finger in the air I haven’t done the working for that). Big big positive. But this is why buying an office doesn’t help value to shareholders
- debs beauty club to be relaunched. Big idea does seem to be beauty (sorry rag they aren’t talking mantaray wtc)
- the 500m addressable audience number is silly but I get the point.
- US warehouse means product has to come from South America, Mexico etc (due to tax) interesting but great we have such a strong playbook for this now it gives you confidence in what could be a shady part of the world to play
- the long term forecast is prudent and largely reflects growth. If this business just decided to stand still the cash generation would be insane
- currently US delivery is 8-10 days this was 4 days pre- covid
- test and repeat for wholesale. Seems a bit confused. Not sure I understand the answer here. It’s like the business will run in two ie core and then wholesale.
- new brands have done above 5% but then at 20% this shows core has under performed. And as I said if core ever hiccups you’ll be upset and here we are (oh but rag said I never said this)
- it was asked how long to get brands back to where they were before boohoo bought. But basically not near term so if PLT is sick in 5 years then sell
- KM shown as an example used to be 400 styles it’s now over 4,000! This is how it’s done. KM is booming in the US and Australia! That’s amazing
- wholesale revenue will be low single digits but can grow
- very small Spain and Italy and Skandie. Didn’t know this but good to see blue sky!
- a lot of analysts are all pegging that not having international warehouse has been a mistake. Shame but we are where we are. Not like anyone said this
- looks like no new M&A planned but fair
- sourcing mix. Moving more off shore but moving due to brand and product mix
- Neil saying some headwinds into FY23 but to ease. Air capacity is the big answer.

Sorry point two don’t know why I’ve typed £50m

Also the £85m does already include exceptional adjustment so don’t double count but

Quick summary is

£135m add automation saving £24m annually (£120m / 5 years) then it’s really exciting

A bit more (if it loads)

- good point made by Neil re marketing cost. These are elevated atm as they have launched debs etc. Obviously you pump when you launch but this will normalise. Again more money that will flow to the bottom in cost saving buy also as the revenues follow. A nice positive and good to see holding marketing as a % of sales so the £ value will increase each year. A good positive this “extra” spend in this half was £13m! Imagine if they hadn’t spent that (I agree they should have) but just shows were profits could be
- £26m of covid costs. Add these to the £50m saving above and that’s doubled your profit! It’s going to get worse before it gets better (H2) but it will get better and roll into profit and cash
- a good slide showing that stip out all the none repeat investment costs then EBITDA was £135m up from £85m. That’s great and would have been a huge boost to cash. Big positive and I believe to be correct. I need to work out of then the exceptionals go on top. If so then wow. Underlying this shows the cherry to come when the platform works. And then get really excited when you add on the automation saving (based on the cash pay back said by JL. That’s almost wee your pants numbers! Big big positive

Will finish up later. Wifi sucks and video won’t play

Just listened to the investor presentation. Here my thoughts. Take or leave.

- wholesale partners. Upsetting that we are having to give away margin but in reality with Brexit I guess this had to happen so good to see a good partner for the EU. U.K. partners can take Arcadia brands which is good as management can keep focus to boohoo and PLT. I’d call this an upsetting positive. But a positive
- US warehouse. I’ve said my piece here but there is a positive that as tourist flights start boohoo should be faster and cheaper to US anyway. So I do think this will help cover over the gap. A good short term positive and the long term solution to come
- test and repeat being put into all brands. Very good! Stick to the secret sauce. But then this does make me distrust the current stock position. Why would it be so big now? Maybe it is getting a head of supply chains. Tbh every brand has done this maybe the supply chain issue is a bit like petrol. Everyone says “hard to get shipping” so everyone ships early and hey guess what “it’s bloody hard to get shipping”. If every brand wasn’t trying to get stock early maybe it would be, well normal? So this is a huge positive for boohoo if these costs normalise
- ESG. Wow that’s a big statement from Brian. Big positive
- re-sell great idea. Obvs a much more competitive market now but the valuations on these businesses have been huge. So why can’t boohoo play? Do we find it interesting that PLT is the brand launching this? I think it shows that PLT is now our clear winning brand. Big positive. I’ll get called hindsight but I said this when depop sold
- structural winner no1. Ok but where is Shein on that list? Also but harsh to have Zara as negative as their online has been great but stores shut. Nonetheless a good message. Also % as not a £ value. £50 to £100 is 100% growth but £5m to £6m is 20%. We’d all rather have £6m than £100. But good message
- automation. Expensive but a 5 year pay back! Wow! That is fantastic. Scalable platform you beauty. Shame we aren’t here sooner but that is some exciting news. This along side the unwind of covid costs means there could be a real boom go profits
- GM and customer KPIs are good. Perhaps Shein isn’t the risk to the boohoo core? Shein is a Gen Z winner so boohoo perhaps is missing the worst of this and we have time to fight back. Does this need to be a new Gen Z brand? Asos launched collusion or can a current brand pivot? I’d like to see a new brand launched.
- established brands - h120 vs h1 21 isn’t great. The graph looks like a plataeu but again these brands are our most international and with speed to US going to get better and green shoots in France and Ireland this should get back to real growth. A positive
- September re-acceleration a huge positive

The rest of presentation won’t load but in short for me. This is just a “flux” period. It will unwind and feels like that’s starting to happen.

If MK could do this why did he move from Ceo? And why did he put in the CEO position a guy who hasn’t built a business from a market stall to a £2bln business?

That point doesn’t hold water in relation to boohoo.

The ceo has never built a business he’s a career guy.

But hey well researched point.

Btw I’m positive here I’m just saying there have been some bad calls and we are paying for it

There is a contingent liability note in the update. Nothing added and nothing deemed a worry

Ie they and lawyers don’t think anything needs to be added

@harchris jab and then run again?

There’s some good stats on customer spend. Tbh they are all rather positive

Ie no Of transactions, units / basket and £ per basket

Suggests that our customers are our customers. But it’s whether boohoo has lost the blue Sky race

Kallu I am happy to say you pointed out some of this. The point I’m making above is that I had said “with share knowledge” that a slow would collapse the share

This is the same for rags point of PLT failing in 5 years. The stock won’t even be worth £1. Investors here want growth. If you tell them that this is coming from sleepy debs brand they will value you like Debenhams and from here the stock gets cheaper! Even after this drop this stock still has a higher p/e than next etc (I’ll have to check but off my noodle i think I’m right)

The positive here has to be September trading. PLT needs to go all guns blazing now!

Umar needs to stop driving his Ferrari round Monaco and get back to work!

And whoever bought that office needs to be slapped

Just on the 500m it needs to just be left alone. Boohoo only have so much cash. The business needs warehouses and more into automation. This year capex is £275m (not sure if this figure is with property) but as the RNS said these logistics don’t come cheap. Just funnel the money to the point where you get best return

Prioritise cash

Trying to get some 40 year old in Arizona to buy Mantary is not an efficient use of cash particularly when they have to wait 8 days for delivery

Debenhams is being serviced from the boohoo warehouse. And that includes beauty

I don’t think the property purchase was a sign of growth slowing but the opposite. I think growth was so good management we’re complacent about what was needed. They got asked about US warehouse. Said we will think about it and then nothing for ages. And then boom a huge office

Now the world is open. Speed is back to top of agenda

Fashionova is expensive even in US but people would buy speed

It was a very bad management call

Well someone told you what this would look like if growth ever slowed. I said to you “you’ll be a lot lower p/e” and a stock starting with a number you won’t like. You’ll say I’m wrong, never said this and a GT but I did say any slow would be dramatic. I guess I didn’t think it would slow this much

If you think PLT is going to fail in 5 years you need to sell the stock is at a P/e of 19x or something (I’ve not calc’d just a quick guess). So if biggest brand is gone in 5 you should be short. Not long

On the 500m people as I say this silly point is at the front of every IM. No one reads it or believes it. They are in the target audience but then “how many are addressable?” A lot less. How many then won’t buy brands they aren’t familiar with? In the US loads. It’s a daft number and from the words in RNS it seems as though they are meaning of hitting most of it via marketplace. There wasn’t a great deal on the new debs brands from RNS

In terms of the none boohoo or PLT brands they did well adding £80m of the £140m U.K. growth. But that’s the growth. Boohoo and PLT are still the vast vast rump (about 80% by a quick guess)

On planes as I said nothing new. Asos told us a few months back this was happening

On your point re stock. This reads very negative as we have a tonne of stock. So is it old and not sold rubbish?

They were sellers. Everyone got excited that they spent a few mill buying last year at drops

They are sellers - pre covid £150m or so

One positive

No contingent liability so they are hopeful of not losing the court case - good as we actually can’t afford it atm!

One negative

Ceo and a lot of key management have a promise of £150m at £6. While this doesn’t look likely do they just walk away?

At this rate even Umar won’t get paid! His options are at 491p

All sounds good and re Debenhams that’s how I’d run it for now. Get cash diverted as much as possible to PLT atm!

Any comments on launching debs overseas?

Yeah catering planes has been going for a while if you follow asos

At this rate do they both just merge? Both about to burn cash on new facilities. Get into bed and cash savings would be huge

I called it the London vanity project. Instead of US warehouse that’s already way overdue you won’t get it for another year. Another year of being slow to the customer. Is “fast” fashion for many reasons. One being fo the customer

You can have the office and just rent it. £1m a year leave £169m in the bank

You can have cake and eat it. Buying a £170m office block in a business wanting to take over the world was either dumb or a vanity project. I said fbis when they bought it

Right now it’s cost you a lot more than £170m not having US distribution

Well when I say holiday I was joking I’m away with work but yes on a plane.

I fully get the 500m number but that’s just a daft silly number. See them at the front of every investment memorandum (addressable market is £x squillion but revenue atm is £20m so clear upside or in reality the huge pie number is just silly)

It’s addressable but online penetration lowers so it’s not “real” but anyway good to see thoughts on big big picture

For me the platform looks there but the US and EU point is going to hurt till fixed. The narrative on EU is disappointing but again just points to cash. Cant promise it as cant pay for it! Annoying

But again this is where marketplace debs can step in. Doesn’t cost cash. But can scale and scale and they clearly want to get this firing. Doubling the partners here is a good ambition

One thing again re cash is the stock build. I’m not sure I buy that it’s there for peak trading? How is winter season clothes here now when we don’t know the trend (for the core brands) and also when the shipping delays make it hard to get stuff? It maybe that this is the reality now of having so many brands which are just less “test and repeat” and therefore this is a one off build of blue V neck jumpers. Hopefully not Teyana Taylor’s Paisley coats!

To add I also think it’s boohoo that’s sick here snd not PLT as Umar is doing everything except running PLT

I agree you have to look through this

Rag quiet today?

It’s not though is it. Different design, suppliers and pricing

If you were smarter Kallu your real killer question would be “are they holding prices to sustain margin at the risk of pausing growth?”

I’ve said for while I think the boohoo brand is not as popular. It has a problem with quality and it’s not quite as “on it” as PLT or Missguided

Shein? Who knows how that is in the mix but a US warehouse needs to happen. Just a shame we have that vanity project in London!