Member Info for danl90

Yeah it's all crazy but will pass

If anything we know human nature. Price of something rises due to shortage so we will create loads to release the shortage and then the original trapped containers (rumour is that a lot are stuck in China) will release and then we will be flooded with containers

i'd like to know how Shein is mitigating this cost?

I think the main light for Card Factory is Clintons giving up

I wonder if Clinton's might try Christmas and then call it an end? Their store in Manchester is always empty vs the two Card stores which are always busy. God knows how they would have looked with even 20% more footfall

I get your point on drop dead but like I said you need value creation not just survival. At the moment there is not much in here that is value creation. Debt has reduced (although artificially) and remains to be a big burden. The £8m of cash generation is the £8m of government grant so you have to strip out and add in what you think mothers day and valentines would be

I agree re H2 but the LFL sales trend was 4% down and now in current trading its 7% down. So it's not a positive trend.

The comments on fraud is true. Auditors read for factual accuracy. What listing rule state are misleading and other softer points. You comment by it's very nature exposed that you were leaning to price manipulation "I think the tone would have been more upbeat to try and boost the share price" talking up a share to boost it's share price is fraud. Particularly in light of a raise. They will have had lawyers strike anything like that out I can assure you

On a results statement they are rarely if ever reviewed by lawyers fyi. It's up to you as a company (unless aim and your nomad reviews). On a normal listing you're considered competent enough to abide the rules yourself so it would have been in-house council. But let me know how you would have worded a 7% fall in LFL sales to make it seem optimistic? I'd be interested in that. My view is that they have been as optimistic as they can by saying the business is doing better at identifying trends to gift and party and as a results has materially increased basket to offset volumes. Ie the bit we can influence (how much people buy) we are doing great. The bit we can't influence (people coming to Higg street) we have made no false promises

But let's see a cut

Investor only

But I think you’re wearing an auditors hat. Neither of those things been the business is worth more it just means it can survive. A business can be a zombie for years

Also talking up a stock to boost its share price before a raise? Yeah that’s fraud and our ceo and chairman would be in jail

I get your point re debt but this business need to flourish not just survive. £200m market cap and £100m net debt is a EV of £300m so it’s need to be cracking out some cash not just servicing debt

It’s all still very in recovery mode in my view

The positive is the switch to gift and party which I think is a better long term winner

Roxbury that isn’t saying that

You have to say where you’re spending the gov grant money so add both bits up and they equal £8m the exact amount of grant

You’re better looking at the net debt table for the true overall position

But then adjust for Mother’s Day and Valentine’s Day missing

Sorted it

So the £23m EBITDA and the £36m operating cash flow are both boosted by £8m gov grant so you have to strip that out

EBITDA is therefore £15m and operating cashflow £28m

This is why I mentioned current trading which is to mid-September

But to give some balance don’t forget Card missed Mother’s Day in these results. That would have been some cash in the door (reflected in LFL but not in cash)

Also the operating cash flow figure of £36m is good on what is the weaker half. If trading stays as it is this will be higher for H2 given Christmas. Hard to see where the government grant is though in all of this. Need clarity

My view is that atm the stock looks fairly priced and no nearer on equity raise

Also of the £10m debt paid £8m was given by the governement

LFL sales fall of only 4% seems good but that is average basket value rising. Volumes fell heavily

I think the stock is still so cheaply priced that we should be ok today and the debt reducing is positive along with the business getting ahead for Christmas

Current trading is off 7% from pre pandemic world which again is not great and a worsening trend but I feel this was peak “covid worry” which again has calmed down

I think this could be bumpy today and a lot hangs on Christmas

I think Clinton’s going bust is the real saviour for this business

I just hope there isn't a raise announced tomorrow

I would like the price built up first before it is discussed. Also markets are nervous atm. It doesn't feel like the right time to be going cap in hand to the markets

Was going to stay away but I notice I'm being called "ginger something" again

"on one point the latest published t/o figure, GT didn't even realise himself it wasn't published anymore!!!"

Just to say on this there was a conversation with myself and @Pmoran where we discussed the possibility of creating "core" and "non-core" growth expectations for different brands before it even happened and then again I commented on how this was introduced on 5th May at results. So yes I did know

extracts for proof

18 Feb 2021 07:18 - "I think you’ll see investors start to look at boo in three from now on as core (boo / PLT / nasty gal and KM and any other brand that is a material grower) and then non-core (lump together other brands (like we do with oasis and warehouse atm) and then marketplace"

05 May 2021 14:05 - "I also think it's poor that breakout by brand has now magically vanished"

So hey turns out I did know hence why I did what I did and didn't just search an FY21 figure. Seems obvious?

Happy to accept an apology on this. Was no need for the offensive language really either

I'd like to see the note. Tbh I always quite like NX so I think I'm tempted here to roll into the deal

As I see it we have a way of getting good exposure to NX's potential as well here at a cheap entry due to the premium paid to us

the gap between the NX offer and the stagecoach bid has tightened in the last few days which suggests there is more optimism that the deal will materialise

M&A can fix these issues. Look how asos flew after the topshop deal

M&A forces people to re-align their thinking

Missguided is a part of asos's offering atm. Asos could enhance it's margin and make it exclusive to asos (so that it can x-sell face and body etc)

Also atm Missguided is very slow to US and international. Asos would turbo charge this

Come on asos get spending the cash

I don’t dispute the points on revenue growth. But for asos they can use M&A to further expand, drive traffic and force synergy

Missguided hits all of asos target market and is great internationally

It’s already huge on asos (1,800 sku as of today) so why risk this falling into hands of a competitor who might take it away? This is why asos paid for topshop. Topshop was a big chunk of revenue and asos couldn’t risk that slipping away

Why not grab Missguided rather than let it fall into JD?

JD bought Hairburst this morning. It’s a beauty brand which has 850k followers on insta and sold on asos (only small quantity) but again I think this highlights the risk asos is at from JD if people keep buying up suppliers

Asos needs to release a proactive M&A strategy it can’t continue like it has

@kallu can you share your links to Shein having warehouse in US?

Also do they own these or are they just third party stores?

I think asos should buy it

Would have been against it a while ago but don’t think asos can afford to let it fall into JD hands

Also Missguided is a rather cool brand and fits where AsYou is for asos

Needs more thought

I think that’s a fair point but perhaps a slightly different topic? I’m more trying to see views on the brands boohoo owns and how we all see them

I see boohoo and PLT growing 30% some have them down as flat. Just curious on views. This might help answer the points re stock being overheated in time

I’m bullish asos. I have set out my thought for the capital markets day