Member Info for danl90

How do you all see FY21? Here the analysis provided by Golden

“ FY20: total sales - £1,235billion being Boohoo & Man - £600m, PrettyLittleThing - £516m, NastyGal - £98m. So the small £20m or so left is Karen Millen and Coast.
FY21: total sales - £1,745billion. The split isn't disclosed and two new brands are added (Oasis and Warehouse but they are small in year)”

My cut
KM and coast - we know KM did well and exceeded previous ownership online revenues (which were £30m) so let’s be bullish and say £50m
Oasis and Warehouse - new in year. Time to get started say £20m? Seems fair maybe bullish?
NastyGal - did 100% growth in FY20 so being bullish let’s say that continues? That puts you at £200m
So so far you’ve added £150m with £350m left to go so no matter how you cut it you see that the core brands grew by >30% collectively

My view, given commentary in the US, is that PLT was stronger than boohoo but nonetheless the point is that the core brands in FY21 were ((£600m + £500m)*1.3) = £1.45bln

£1.45bln! That’s almost bigger than the whole of Debenhams U.K. already never mind the 40% growth so far this year and medium term expectation of 20% growth yoy from the core brands

All the other brands are great but be under no illusion where the bulk of money is made from here atm and 20% annually on a big number means the core brands will in effect create a whole FY20 PLT a year soon!

How do you guys see it? Happy for ideas if ive called some bits wrong

Same old Pmoran picking on Kallu but nothing to say about rag?

Honestly you two are the same person. 100%.

I get put down for being “I am” yet have you seen rag in those latest chains? The aggression! And then spouting wildly incorrect figures. When addressed what has he done just turned to being offensive and won’t complete the task asked by Golden as it will force him to admit he was wrong

But yeah P keep picking on Kallu and me that’s where the real poison is here

@goldenyears - I'm afraid this is rag. Spouts absolute unsubstantiated bullpoop and claims he has fantastic insight. You can also hope @Pmoran jumps in but that will likely be to defend rag (to the death tbh)

Ask rag how to value the business that will get you a laugh!

So is PLT £500m or not rag?

@wyndrum even with stores those brands were doing around the same revenue as PLT and Boohoo this year. Now they have lost their main route to market does anything they will ever get back to that size? You could believe asos when they say it for topshop as it's a young shopper but how many of Debs shopper now won't get into online shopping? Probs quite a few so you can't take Debs as it was and say "hey this where we will get to"

Also rags points here are based off a huge misunderstanding of boohoo (he thinks PLT is a £500m revenue business). For my point re PLT I said "Also re PLT. It was £500m a few years back. The group then grew by 40% (so assume PLT did it's bit) then that makes it £700m and since then the last update put the group at the same growth again (so assume PLT did it's bit) put it on a run-rate over £1billion" So yeah I said a "few years back" a common saying but then I laid out the maths which puts the starting point as updating for FY21 and then the first trading update 3 months on top. So no I didn't misunderstand where I got the figure from

If you can find me a teenager without the daily mail app I'd be surprised. They all have it as Daily Mail has "the best" TV & Showbiz section ie following Kardashians etc

They aren't reading it like a normal paper! ha. It's for the gossip section

I read this last night thought it was really good a great start to getting back to the right track

Need more education with the consumer though so I hope this article gets shared by Daily Mail etc

Just read the article and it’s really good. Nothing no one knew already but just lots of examples of how the changes promised are being made and are no tangible

They took 10 customers around a few third party factories that also produce for Primark and Asos. But as I said a few weeks back would have been great to take mollie mae on this? Or would that have felt a big staged? Not too sure

Article mentions that the international supply was set to be published end of this month so flyer you might be right with something to drop very soon

Would be welcome. There’s an article re the factories in the telegraph but I’m not a subscriber

Can someone share?

I’d park in the delusional camp and good luck trying to get rag to fill those numbers in expect a long rant and some stories about Pennywise!

Just so we are all crystal (don't want to lose context)

"Just want to reiterate my opinion on BH Group, obviously this is not the company it was this time last year, this can be quite hard to get your head around if you still see BH / PLT as the main money drivers,"

Rag stating BH/ PLT are not the main money makers. But how credible is this as a statement if he thinks PLT has growth of 0% over the last 20months

Quick poll. Anyone else agree PLT has had a 0% growth rate over the last 20 months when the group has grown by a cumulative c.50-60%?

ladies and gentlemen may I present ragtrade a man who thinks PLT is doing £500m a year!

I really don't think he has any understanding. That figure is from Feb-20 so yeah it's an old number. Since then boohoo has grown 40% to Feb-21 (it's hardly unrealistic to think PLT was aligned with this or more given it's the groups no1 brand in the US where growth was higher!)

And then again you've had another trading update putting the group at the same 40% growth (again unrealistic to think PLT is doing it's fair share?)

And to state rag you did say these brands "were the main money makers" and "it was hard to get your head around". Yeah we know as by next year boohoo and PLT alone will be almost bigger than debenhams ever was

It's upsetting someone with such poor literacy is able to buy shares

Sorry wanted to add @golden I appreciate your point re PLT and the run rate. I guess here I was second guessing what analysts might have pencilled in vs management expectation so agree my view is bullish

Well someone liked my numbers and analysis! That’s enough for me

@Pmoran nothing to say re rag blasting wildly wrong numbers out there to draw false conclusions? Are numbers now also “valid opinions?” - please try and play fairly for once

I think everyone agrees the Debenhams brands will be grown but that they are somehow now the “main stage” of where this business is going is just not right. Have a listen back to the day boohoo bought Debenhams they are hardly mentioned it was all (JL speaking) let’s get this capital light marketplace going and beauty. He did actually say on the Debenhams day that some brands might get their own websites. Come the update in May this changed to “no they are just going to be on Debenhams” so that gives you a hint that the SKUs of ranges won’t be high enough to be a standalone

Once again happy for all opinions but if you’re opinion is based on numbers that turn out to be completely wrong shouldn’t basic logic say you revisit that opinion?

Best of luck to these brands but if you think boohoo stock is a buy for Debenhams brands but PLT/ boohoo might fail any time in the next 5-10 years you need to be selling (if you re a long term holder) as atm of the £3.4billion to buy this company the vast vast majority of that allocates to those brands and c.£55m allocates to Debenhams incl brands (this number will move when we see some numbers but you’ve only had trading since May so in reality very little)

Understand what you’re buying

sorry the link - https://www.boohooplc.com/sites/boohoo-corp/files/all-documents/result-centre/2020/boohoo-com-plc-annual-report-2020-hyperlink.pdf

The "latest" from the boohoo board is that they no longer do revenue per brand

@jjo please share that that number is for the 12 months ending Feb-20

As I said the group grew 40% since then (assume PLT did it's bit - £500m x 1.4 = £700m - tbh it's probs more as we all know PLT is the one firing on all cylinders in the USA) and then we have had quarterly updates which show growth still at the 40% rate so if that is a run-rate then (£700 x 1.4 = >£1billion)

It's worrying that someone can get figures for such a huge part of the group so wrong. Also nothing to add re the "missing" Debenhams billion?

Thanks for sharing. I for one have found your insight extremely useful and engaging

@jjo might be worth you copying my point re the debs accounting and also the PLT figures for rag so he can see them

His "closer" view is off by some rather large figures

Thanks

I do agree with rag re the size of the prize and brand loyalty of debenhams but that's not to say I agree that all of a sudden a few old dusty brands will be the money earner

The point of debenhams for boohoo (no order on these btw) is 1) beauty 2) market place and 3) a great shop window for all brands (to cover all demographics - which rag pointed out and I believe is correct)

Debenhams is a great for boohoo as you can get customers x-buying ie buy a jumper and add in make up. The cost to boohoo is the same as just sending the jumper but now there is a £50 bottle of smelly in there. That synergy gain is insane

The debenhams fashion brands might do ok but they won't out-do PLT and boo etc

But just FYI rag - the debs t/o number you quote is gross of market place (so you have to pull that out) and also includes international (which isn't around yet) so the total Debs revenue number is £2billion but again that got online in, selling third brands (wrangler etc - which was a lot bigger under debs), income from concession and also beauty

So it's not quite as you'ev made out that the debs brands are racing to £3billion as they haven't ever been there

Also re PLT. It was £500m a few years back. The group then grew by 40% (so assume PLT did it's bit) then that makes it £700m and since then the last update put the group at the same growth again (so assume PLT did it's bit) put it on a run-rate over £1billion

Always good to understand what you own. Just off on PLT by the 100% or so

There are years worth of RNS. Go have a look

@jjo, I agree. You're getting insane growth from boohoo and PLT. Get all the cash you can into making those the success they can be globally

Reasons
- that growth is driving the multiple = makes your shares worth more
- they are higher margin = JL said newer brands will be lower so why put cash to a lower return
- marketplace was chosen for Debs as it doesn't divert cash
- none of the debs brands are getting their own websites so there is no big plan to "push" them. Why advertise matary and others one by one when you can just advertise Debenhams in one big go (which is what has happened so far)
- the stock is valued (or was! ha) on a huge forward multiple for the growth in PLT and Boohoo. If they slip even for a second your shares will get a lot cheaper. This is the "hard to get your head around part" you can't just earn a £1 from anywhere it is "how you earn the £1". If boohoo and plt went backward it wouldn't matter what growth you got from debenhams your shares will start with a £1.xx number (this is why you need to understand what you are buying. If you're buying a bet on debenhams then that's really not it through this share instrument)

great if the debs brands end up adding something. No one is against that but thinking they are the "main money makers" is delusional

The marketplace could be value adding as it can drive a multiple but again that "how you make the £1. Not just making a £1"

No that’s incorrect

It wouldn’t stay the same for stagecoach shareholders if they negotiated it up

Easy example. Say the combined business makes £100m profit

Atm as a stagecoach group of shareholders we’d be getting £25m of that in the future

If we negotiate up we’d get move of that in the future

You need to consider the value of the combined group. Which is why your point isn’t correct and why NX price goes too (as the £100m will have synergies to come)

Atm we get 25% of the future pot. If we negotiate more you can see you gain as more cash in future runs to stagecoach shareholder (by the fact you have more NX shares)