Member Info for danl90

Yeah there will always be a difference (that the 0.36 NX sits above the stagecoach price) but this reflects the risk the deal doesn’t happen ie leaves a bit for an investor who wants in on the deal but others willing to cash out now

There are a lot of reasons why this deal might not happen. I think with Tories in and levelling up they will champion this as long as assurances are given re depots and services etc

Stop thinking about it in terms of pence and solely think of it in terms of NX shares

The offer is 0.36 NX shares per stagecoach share

When the deal completes you will not get a penny. You will get NX shares

If NX is £4 you get 0.36 NX shares

If NX is £2 you get 0.36 NX shares

All that can happen now is
- stagecoach as for some element in cash or a cash top up (later more common where there is a divi already due)
- stagecoach could argue they are worth more in the combined group so 0.36 goes up
- NX stock falls so the deal isn’t accretive ie there will be a 0.x where the deal is dilutive you NX holders despite the synergies

But think of this only in terms of NX shares

How are you calculating cheap? Based on what they were worth pre pandemic?

Sorry marketplace also part of the plan as these attract very high multiples

So proving this works will means a portion of earnings will be given a greater weighting

All while not wasting a £1 of cash

As Jjo said yesterday point your cash at what makes you the most money - ie boohoo going to spend £500m on distribution next few years

Yes if you're holding both as you already knew you wanted exposure to markets outside of UK

It's the theory why Prudential split in two they realised either investors wanted

- high growth asia
- slow and steady UK (divi yield)

There weren't many who wanted a mix of both

Split it apart and the two bits were worth more as investors who previously sat on the sidelines bought the part they wanted

This is just reverse ie a combined scale will outweight investors who might want a pureplay story (stagecoach investors). NX investors already know they get a mix (but obvs the mix moves more to UK than previous)

Ok some seem to think no so I'll explain why answer is in fact "yes"

Atm you hold just shares in stagecoach. Stagecoach is a pure play UK bus operator. NX (not a business I know too well) makes a lot of it's cash in USA

So if you think "I want to bet on the UK recovery but not so sure about the USA market" then as things stand stagecoach is a great investment for you

But after the deal it's no. As post deal 75% of your holding is tied to a business which earns a chunk of cash in USA (and other places)

The thesis of what you're investing in has changed

It is! There's only rag that seems to think a bunch of old tatty brands are going to be bigger than PLT and boohoo (or already are apparently)

Ask him does he even know the revenue of these businesses online before boo bought them. I bet he hasn't a clue!

Also this point highlight how he doesn't know what he's bought as like it or not he's paid a huge chunk for PLT. So bought shares in a business worth £3billlion to buy brands which were bought for £80m? Yeah sounds great!

All "valid" opinion though

Well if you're bullish the sector then why not! I guess this is a win win for holding both if you think the synergies are tangible

@Pmoran, see you really don't get my points

I'm not saying you don't understand context. My point is that when I gave you the context you never seem to go "oh yeah, bit unfair by rag"

I explained how months of conversation were "shut down" by rag dragging up points about topshop from1996 yet in another convo he seems to, well i can't say accept it as he's still misunderstood (Debs had same data as boohoo - god what does he know!). So is this a factually incorrect statement or just claim "it's an opinion, i hold a share so can't tell me otherwise"

Like I said does holding a wrench make me just as valid as a highly skilled plumber with lots of experience? Or would it be better if every time the plumber (CF professional) was trying to make points from the manual (Management) I just tell them they are wrong by saying the victoria used to fix chimny by sending a boy up with a brush?

This is my point. I've only come across like this as rag won't ever be corrected, dispite the direct quotes from boohoo or anyone, it's jsut references to pennywise etc or topshop "platform" from 1996

The other day how boohoo is having sucess by making "micro changes" when Carol laid out for use exactly what they had done to have sucess - move pricing significantly, pivot offer to trend and then imply test and repeat

Rag said no this is wrong it's just micro. Somehow I was wrong despite Carol literally telling us - explain that to me

Oh and add to that that "test and repeat" is due to fail and isn't sustainable. So boohoo is buying a load of brands and putting in place a strategy that will fail yet rag is saying they will be the "main money makers" wnat to give me the context for that?

To be clear for you all

Your offer isn't 80p it's 0.36 shares in NX. Whatever the NX price is x0.36 and that's your offer

The point here is people will do the maths to see what the combined group is "worth" and you then have 25% of that

This is why both share prices have gone up as it's an all paper deal with lots of synergies so the value of the combined group should be a lot more due to the savings

Add to that as you all have said "growth" and general "share price recovery" (for both) and you should see turbo charged returns

It's "low" as national express share price is "low"

It's as it's a paper deal. So you have to look at how much you will own of the combined group and what that will be worth after synergies etc

So this again is confusing and surely means the stock is a sell not a buy? If PLT will get whipped away then given the huge forward earnings multiple at what rate of growth do the Debs and Arcadia brands need to be to offset this?

Can someone ask rag please as I think he’s just told us to expect a profit warning?

You stated their “valid” opinion. Just because I hold a wrench wouldn’t mean I have a valid view on how to fix a sink. Same as someone who doesn’t understand this business, sector or business valuation doesn’t have a valid opinion on a stock as they are just guessing or a hunch ie rag

You also stated “ I don’t see why that should make them any less qualified to have an opinion about a share they own than you me or anyone else” which contradicts the above. So just because someone can buy a stock makes them just as qualified. I’ll buy a scalpel tomorrow and I’m a surgeon?

My point re private equity etc is that if you think that what those multi million/ billion funds are doing is just driving round looking for greggs or saying “I reckon buy boohoo as they now have mantary” then again it might support why lots of people invest and lots lose money

But look you again only want to call me out. Look at rag in the other thread just being schooled and taking it nicely. God when I told him the data boohoo had was better than what topshop had it was “what do you know ginger prick do you even know who pennywise was?” (Sorry that was after he shared a link to a topshop online concept from 1996 in which it directly stated topshop wouldn’t keep data ie useless)

And that’s why the board fell apart. As rather than own up to the misunderstandings he has I have to go through months of explaining just for him to get all angry (platform saga…wow! All that I said there was “invalid” as I didn’t know the camera Asos used) really? We’re discussing the point of a c.£1billion platform and because rag claims it’s just a website (despite quotes from boohoo, next, hut and Asos ceos and his own trade rags). I had to be a “ginger prick” as I didn’t know the camera

So no. I’m not like this. It’s that he doesn’t understand his own sector. It upsets him so through pride he continues to share further misinformation or ramps

Now we don’t like Kallu? Well rag is his inverse. You should treat both the same

@jjo I think rag doesn’t get the “data” point. He thinks “Debenhams had this” they didn’t. Debenhams just had a list of beauty club members which was pretty much a mailing list

I think you have to be careful to assume rag knows even the basic terms although I admit you laid out the Amazon example well. It’s just been missed by the audience

Re your last point I think worth asking him what the respective revenues were of these brands pre acquisition. I think then he can explain how they will be the main value drivers over boohoo and plt

actually why don't we add some "context" to rags claim

can someone ask rag what the combined revenues were of these brands (debs & arcadia) from online pre-boohoo acquisition. That might help give him some context for his view and subsequent disagreement

Also worth asking him how boohoo will grow these brands given "test and repeat" is not sustainable

@Pmoran - welcome to context

Rag just doing what he always does to re-write the "context"

Hasn't considered revenue at all in his points yet it was "if you still see BH / PLT as the main money drivers" (past tense)

So yeah they are adding in these teams but will the growth out pace core? According to JL - no

But rag is telling us we should be buying shares now that these new brands are the money spinners

It's all just pointless fluff with no connection to anything tangible and then no link to share price

But again are you going to call this out? No of course not

@jjo

Refreshing to have someone on here who seems to "get it". Just curious if we can get your view on a few other parts of this business

Test & repeat is is useful and how much does doing it online with data give extra speed and agility? How does that compare with a store operator? Do you think test and repeat is doomed to fail? Even though Boohoo have proven this works with oasis, wallis and most profoundly with KM?

Does a clothing business usually make a great margin from in-house or selling third party brands?

Also in terms of valuation of the business do you think it would be better if boohoo had a "more normal p/e" rating?

Thanks

He's saying that boohoo and PLT are no longer the main money drivers ie that KM, mantary and the other debenhams brands now are (or very soon will be)

I'm just curious on how those brands will outgrow boohoo and PLT to be the "main money drivers?"

Just seems impossible to me. At least within the near or medium future so how is what he has said true?

He's right it's hard to get your head around

@jjo can you ask rag to clarify his statement that I quoted? I get they are building up teams but how will that bridge the £1.5billion or more difference in revenue?

Especially from brands that in their hay day never would have equaled that amount

I'm confused! Also if we could get some view from rag re impact to the share price from these brands that would be really helpful to me

If you think that’s funny try rags “analysis” sorry I’ll be taking this “out of context” (it’s not it’s just absolute garbage)

“ BH Group, obviously this is not the company it was this time last year, this can be quite hard to get your head around if you still see BH / PLT as the main money drivers”

Ask rag to give us the maths on this!

Boohoo & PLT c.£2billion revenue and forecast (by management) to be responsible for 80% of the 25% a year growth and the other stuff c.£0.25billion and forecast to be the remaining 20% of growth

Yeah that’s hard to get your head around. Might need some “context”