Member Info for danl90

Yeah I have boohoo shares. My point was not related to boohoo but more that everyone on here seems to nurse a semi over the fact the business has no debt

This is a fast growth business. There’s a huge market to go for. Debt is cheap go grab it and get going

Yeah they have added some nice brands but none of them outside of KM and maybe DP are going to be £200m - £300m brands. DP could be decent but let’s see obvs hope I’m wrong

But don’t be scared of debt

Everyone seems to get excited about this company having no debt I really don’t see why

Things boohoo needs
- US distribution
- anchor brands in new territories
- launch Debs internationally
- the 5 warehouses JL spoke about other week
And probs a few other bits

Rather than wait the 5 or so years he said they would be delivered on go borrow £500m now and get them or some of the other bits above today. Why wait for the cashflow?

Debt is cheap. Go get it and get cracking!

@kindness I do agree. I think Shein going public is good for boohoo as it raises awareness of Shein. Atm Shein has flown under the radar. This puts it on the radar and as you say for governments. There’s a lot of political tension atm between US and China and this “positive” move for Shein might actually get them more hassle

But tbh if you were the founder and cashed out a few billion do you care what comes next? Ha

Asos is beating Shein in the U.K.? How so? The analysis from kitty is not great

85% of Asos sales come from mobile/ app so you’re looking at 15% of the story

Also Shein has been high on app downloads most of the year but Asos is higher up

Shein has been number 2 on app downloads most of last 18months in USA

Asos has done really well re app downloads in U.K, Germany and US last few months

App data is better than website

Or this gives Shein paper to buy boohoo! ha

At $47billion it would be fairly easy

How will Chinese gov react to this given Didi?

Why would shorts move to Shein though?

Why aren't we concerned about Shein?

Mool I think you’re reading too much into it. I posted a quick headline. I hadn’t read it or made any points

I just thought off the cuff it was interesting but agree it’s not perfect. I just shared as given the bumpy place boohoo is in atm another lockdown winner have a bumpy path might have weighed on it this morning. And for a while it did. Both have turned positive now

I’m not saying it’s a direct correlation I’m just sharing as it’s quite a stark fall in revenue

Part of the increase in all these businesses last 18months has been the shift to online and how that change will continue in the shorter term

It’s more a consumer point than a direct statement for boohoo. Equally JD posting record figures as people have moved back to store

I’m making a consumer point not a boohoo point

No it’s not. Ocado was a lockdown winner. So too was boohoo. There will be some read across for the impact of opening up

Where will the stock be?

You had one NED buy in c£100k at 320p. Pre covid you had the founders sell £150m just shy of £3

I don’t disagree with your points below they all make sense

The thing with a 35x p/e (your Calc) is like I said to rag if you want a “normal” p/e for this sector you’re talking 14-20x

So if this is “just another retailer”, “slower growth” or “lacks its competitive advantages ie agility from platform”

Then even at x35 you can go lower

But I’m not saying the above is right. Just stating how it could be

Hoping management have got a bit of magic for us here

Rag did want a “normal” p/e though so guess he might get what he wanted

Boohoo and PLT are aiming for c.£2billion of revenue. The acquired brands are in total (at the absolute top end) £200m? A little more maybe

The new deals are great but the core has to be doing it’s part or it’s irrelevant what the new acqs do

There can be a difference and they don’t have to say it by now. For example boohoo’s guidance is 25% growth for the year. They do 40% now. If they post the balance to get to 25% then yeah they hit what they told the market (don’t need to come forward to market) but analyst and funds might pencil in a better number (consensus) so results would be a “miss”

So the flux we are in atm is investors selling out as they disagree with the company and analysts on forecast performance

Also what your point below doesn’t cover is the future. So far we know 25% medium term. Again if this looks difficult the stock will lose value but not have to notify the market of this early as it’s not now it’s a vague “medium term”

So again you might have investors doubting the future. Abs given this is a high p/e business that is arguably more important than the short term

Let me know if this makes sense

@slipperz I agree that medium to long term customer quality and service wins

The problem for boo atm (and this is the bit rag doesn’t understand when he says about the debs brands stepping up) is that boo has numbers to hit now. As a Plc you’ve got to “meet or beat” your expectations otherwise it’s a very bumpy ride and longer term you lose investor confidence

So while I agree all I’m saying here is if growth looks to dip below expectations then the markets will be brutal. And you’ll be waiting a while before mantary steps up to fill the gap!

I did but I’ve been saying that myself since the start of the year.

I first flagged Shein on here as a threat months back.

Is the big worry here

How many newspapers etc are writing about it now? And it's not just fashion posts it's in the FT, Times, Telegraph finance sections and also in analyst commentary

I do think Boo should be ok this quarter and for the near future but as I said there is now a real battle to fight. Boo's easy ground was won against bricks and mortor competitors. Now they are competing against other pure online platform businesses. The market is fundamentally different

I do think that Gov's should be pushing against Shein though as the slave labour for one means they shouldn't be allowed to operate and two they get significant tax advantages which wouldn't be allowed in the EU

The world needs to protect it's interests against Chinese undercutting and unethical practice

Shein is also a reason for the sell off. MArkets aren't sure to what extent that business has gained ground and who from

Here's a good example of the potential upside from flex fufilment

Asos has stocked the brand "Simmi" in the UK this brand is popular and has sold really well (https://www.asos.com/women/a-to-z-of-brands/simmi/cat/?cid=28271¤tpricerange=5-45&refine=attribute_1047:8585 - only a handful of product left)

If you look at the Germany site (which is serviced via the Berlin warehouse) there are lots of Simmi items still in stock (https://www.asos.com/de/search/?page=1&q=simmi%20shoes)

The annoying thing for Asos is atm they can't (without hassle and manual input) move the shoes back from Germany to UK. Under flex fulfilment the customer order goes to any warehouse. So the additional demand in the uk (which asos can't meet as it has no stock) would be met via germany

Also the stock write off would be lower as Asos doesn't have a load of shoes left in Berlin which weren't as popular over there

This is one small example but there small marginal gains on mass scale will make a huge operational performance

85% of Asos traffic is via mobile (so mainly apps which won’t be in your analysis - I think)

85% is a huge chunk so you’re better looking at app download performance

I did this the other day and in all key markets Asos has performed really well across key markets

The only problem there is it doesn’t help with insight into current shoppers

My view though is people are needing next day delivery again